Tag Archives: homework

Big Winners great Strike rates…

Isn’t betting a funny thing…

On the one hand we want winners and the bigger the better…

…And on the other we want to win a lot with very few losers.

Big winners and a great Strike rates… Perfect!

Unfortunately it doesn’t quite work like that.

Big winners tend to mean lower strike rates.

Take “Elision” a system we have been testing over at the Grey Horse Bot web site since 28/08/2014.

It has an average winning price of 9.00 (pretty big).

It also has an average strike rate of 13.12% (not so big)

And since we started reviewing the system it has had a winning month of 51.39 and 40.32.

Sounds pretty good…right?

Well not quite…

Averages are funny things. They are made up of high and low figures.

The high ones are great because they produce the big profit months like above.

It’s the low ones that are a pain.

They tend to be the ones where you need to dig deep.

If you have done your homework and understand that longest losing runs do happen then you can ride them out.

If you haven’t then this is where you find out that staking too much from your bank on each selection can really be expensive.

Tipsters and systems have good runs, but they also have times when their natural strike rates adjust.

Whether you call it a “bad run”, “bad luck” or “The system doesn’t work”.

It will happen.

Elision proves this point.

Yes it has had some good months but it also has bad months.

The 28 month history shows us that this is not unusual…

…It’s all down to you and whether you believe the history or think the bad months are the signs of the system going bad.

Don’t ignore statistics…

 Losing runs will happen and the lower the strike rate the longer these will be and the more often they will happen.

Be prepared and reap, ignore and you will be forever losing.

You can check Elision out here

http://greyhorsebot.com/elision

Thanks

Malcolm Pett

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:20 Newcastle Up And Go – win bet – 15/8 Sporting Bet

Value Betting Part 1

Today we kick off a five part series of articles looking at value betting and culminating with a method for finding value bets.

The articles have been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

Take it from me, you won’t be able to turn a regular consistent profit from your betting until you fully grasp the concept of value and start applying its principles to every single bet you place.

I literally cannot stress enough how important it is to understand and seek out value in all of your betting. It is, by far and away, the most important factor in profitable betting!

The only way you can make profit from betting in the long term is to ensure that you are getting value prices about your bets. If not, you are doomed to failure. It is that simple.

Amazingly, there are plenty of people out there who will tell you that finding winners is the only important thing. Anybody who tells you that is showing such staggering naivety (and inability to perform the simplest of calculations) that I need to meet them immediately and start offering them some wagers!

The ‘Hole in One’ gang are a great example of finding a value proposition and exploiting it ruthlessly. It’s a famous story but I think it bears a re-telling here.

The ‘Hole in One’ gang operated very successfully for a short time in the early 90s. They were 2 gamblers by the names of Paul Simons and John Carter who, through detailed study of past results, came to realise that the occurrence of a hole in one in professional golf, far from being a freakish, rare event was actually exceptionally common.

They calculated that the true odds of a hole in one being scored in one of golf’s majors are shorter than even money.

They were staggered to discover that large numbers of independent bookmakers were simply not doing their homework and were prepared to offer them ludicrous odds about a hole in one – up to 100/1 in some cases!

They toured the country surreptitiously placing bets in singles, doubles, trebles and accumulators for a hole in one to be scored in the majors, taking all prices from 3/1 upwards. By the time they were finished, they had plunged their entire lives savings of around £40,000 into a multitude of bets.

The rest is history. A hole in one was scored in most, if not all, of the majors that year and the gang’s winnings totalled somewhere in the region of £500,000. (Some of the bookmakers subsequently welched on the wagers and they eventually collected around £420,000).

£420,000 – all for doing a very simple piece of research and realising that the odds available were offering a ludicrous level of value!

Now clearly value opportunities of such magnitude (particularly on such a probable event) don’t arise everyday but you would be surprised just how often decent value opportunities do occur – particularly in horse racing where bookmakers have to assess an almost infinite set of factors in formulating their prices.

Tomorrow, I will define what I mean by ‘value betting’ and work through some examples to show just how important it is.

Today's selection

Wolverhampton 5.35 Follow The Flag – each way bet – 7/1 Victor Chandler

Racing Post Pricewise

If you have been around racing for a while you will have heard of Pricewise.

Pricewise is a column started long ago by Mark Coton.

It is a regular column published in the Racing post and it looks to identify big priced winners.

Because it tips these big priced winners two facts prevail.

  1. It has very long losing runs although makes a profit at advised prices.
  2. The prices always shorten once the column hits the streets.

These facts mean that although worth betting, for most of us the losing runs mean that we can't rely on Pricewise alone for our tips.

But also that if we are prepared to get up early (The digital Racing Post is out at 3.00 am!) there are trading opportunities to be had.

IE if you can bet at the Pricewise advised price you can be pretty confident that you can lock in a profit later when the price shortens.

As I said the original Pricewise was Mark Coton, a punting hero to many. And an author of books on value that are stil relavent today.

The current and long term incumbent is Tom Segal.

At the weekend I read an interview that Tom Segal gave at NTF and to say some of his answers surprised me is an understatement.

Here are a few

How much ‘homework’ do you undertake before each selection?

Nowhere near as much as many think. 20 minutes maybe, big believer in keeping things simple

I think most Racing Post pundits would give the impression that they spend a lot of time on a race even if their didn't!

I guess we should applaud Tom's honesty, but I can't see how you can make a comprehensive form study of a reasonable sized field in 20 minutes!

Which area of your selection process do you consider to be the most important?

Price and jockey

Is he just looking for big prices on horses with a decent jockey booked?

Apart from price what do you feel is the most important factor when analysing an ante-post market?

Trainer I suppose but price is by far the most important.

And again with the price. I know the column is all about value and the Racing Post brief is to find a contender that is much bigger than it should be. But surely you have to find one that has a chance before you look at the price.

I know the column is heralded all about as a must read. And that it is a must read for many but I didn't feel inspired by those answers.

If you agree with me or not I'd love to hear your opinions in the comments below.

Before I wrap up I should mention that Tom gave some horses to follow…

For Cheltenham – Minsk

Most impressive novice – Grand Crus

2 year old – Akeed Mofeed

Dark horse to follow – Kissed

Read the full interview over on Ben's site here

Today's Selection 

Wolverhampton 5.00 Bentley – each way bet

 

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