Tag Archives: horse races

Free National Hunt To Follow List

Today we have a freebie for you that will hopefully make some serious profit this National Hunt season.

It comes from a guy called Ben Aitken that you have probably heard of.

Ben takes an alternative approach to winner finding, the main difference is that he uses the Dosage Index to analyse National Hunt runners.

Here's what Wikipedia say about the Dosage Index…

The Dosage Index is a mathematical figure used by breeders of Thoroughbred race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree.

The Dosage Index is commonly used to assess horses running on the flat, but Ben is the only person I know that also uses it for National Hunt racing.

The upshot of that alternative approach is that he finds a lot of big priced winners.

But back to the freebies.

Ben is currently giving away a number of FREE racing guides, the most interesting for me is his ‘20 To Follow’ for the season.

Now this isn’t your standard list. Why? Because Ben has deliberately left out any Mullins, Henderson and Nicholls horses! Indeed there are no Hobbs, McCain or King horses on the list either!

That instantly makes the list of interest for me.

What’s more he has also managed to secure some exclusive trainer quotes for a couple of the horses on his list, adding even more value to this excellent FREE guide.

Grab your own copy of the NTF ‘Alternative 20 To Follow’

Today's Selection

A shortage of racing today so we are going odds on at Sedgefield

2.10 Sedgefield Laigle Royal – win bet

Each Way Value

As I was looking through today's cards I was reminded of another strategy championed by yesterdays guest writer Clive Keeling.

Basically this method is essentially a non form method of getting each way value in horse races.

Here's an example that Clive published in his newsletter recently.

I highlighted a great each way betting race in the 12.30 Newbury last Friday and suggested choosing an each way bet from three horses: Bold Cuffs; Vasco d’Ycy; and Pistol.

This was the result:

1 Vasco D'Ycy 7/1
2 Pistol 6/1
3 Saphir Du Rheu 10/11F
NR: Hector's Chance

Not bad eh? No form research; just logic and conjecture based on the betting forecast and Oddschecker. Do take a look at last week’s example.

The example is at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. It is a great way to sniff out each way horses.

In summary, here’s what you do:

Look at 8/9 runner races.

Ideally, the favourite should be odds on (Saphir Du Rheu was 10/11 favourite in the above example).

There should be four or five horses under double-figure odds in the betting forecast at the Racing Post and in the live betting market. This allows us to easily shortlist potential horses who can take advantage if an odds-on favourite under performs (as above with Saphir Du Rheu coming third).

It’s a nice, simple, logical strategy which needs no form research at all, and could net you a 7/1 winner as above .

So there is a race that fits the profile today and it's the 5.40 at Kempton.

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Two In The Pink, 4/1 Batchworth Lady, 5/1 Summer Sun, 7/1 Visual Aspect, 20/1 I Need A Dollar, 25/1 Back For Tea, 33/1 Dancing Ellie Mae, 50/1 Hanga Roa.

So the method tells us we should have an each way bet on either Batchworth Lady, Summer Sun or Visual Aspect.

Having a closer look at the race and it's hard to see any of them winning, but somebody has to. The more I look at this race the more I think the odds on favourite Two in the Pink is actually value at the current odds of 8/13. The others are a poor bunch.

But the point of the article is to demonstrate the each way value method, so on that basis the each way selection would have to be Summer Sun for me at 6/1.

The idea behind this method is that the win price on the strong favourite pushes out the prices of the other main contenders, which makes them value for the place part of an each way bet on them.

Today's Selection

Lingfield 3.45 Fathom Five – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

Contrary Mary

It is a known fact that the people who make the biggest profits from betting are those who go against the crowd. That is they have a unique angle that the main stream punters do not use or consider significant.

Or more likely the regular punter isn't prepared to put in the work required to use the alternate angle.

One such alternate angle is using the Dosage Index to calculate the likely performance of a horse from it's breeding.

Here's how Wikipedia define the Dosage Index…

The Dosage Index is a mathematical figure used by breeders of Thoroughbred race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree.

There are a lot of people around the world who use Dosage figures to work out the likely performance of the top flat racing horses.

But there are very few people who use it to rate the big National Hunt races. In fact there is only one person that I know of who takes this contrary view and his name is Ben ‘Contrary Mary' Aitken and he has been very successful with this approach.

Today Ben launches his National Hunt service, where he shares his full analysis of the top National Hunt races over the coming season.

This full analysis means you can use his data to find your own selections or you can take the easier route and follow Ben's own selections.

To find out more about the Dosage Index and Ben's service Click Here.

You can also download a whole host of free guides that will help you to make your own Dosage calculation.

Today's Selection

Lingfield 4.30 Ginger Ted – win bet

Bot Staking Plans etc

We've had a few questions about the bot that I mentioned yesterday.

It made 4 points profit yesterday, by the way.

The questions boil down to

Q. What does it bet on?

A. The bot lays market leaders in higher class UK horse races.

Q. It mentions a staking plan, how risky is that?

A. The bot has three staking options, they are level stakes, plan 1 and plan 2.

I use plan 1.

The bot operates a number of systems which are grouped together.

Any recovery only takes place within the group, so where there is a recovery bet it may not be the next bet the bot makes but will be the next bet in the same group as the losing bet.

Plan 1 lays the selection, then if that is a losing bet it tries to recover the loss on the next bet within the group. If that bet is a loser then the loss is accepted and no further recovery is attempted.

Plan 2 is the same except it attempts two recoveries before accepting the loss.

Q. You mention the bot can be trialled for £1 day, how does that work.

A. The initial payment is £7 for 7 days followed by £30 for the following 30 days. Anytime during this 37 days you can cancel the bot and get a pro rata refund of the remaining days that you have paid for.

Hope that helps full details here.

Today's Selection

Chester 3.05 Ballesteros – win bet
Lingfield 5.30 Foot Tapper – each way bet

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