Tag Archives: interesting piece

# Kautoyoustar

Betfair are running a competition to win a framed photo print stamped by Kauto Star or a Betfair scarf stamped.

All you have to do is to follow Betfair on twitter @BetfairRacing and tweet with the hashtag #kautoyoustar saying what make Kauto a star to you. Full details here

Hennessy Gold Cup 

It's Hennessy Gold Cup day tomorrow and there is a lot of opinion as to the likely victor, as you might imagine.

Lets start with one time favourite Great Endeavour.

Nick Mordin has a very interesting piece highlighting the shortcomings of the UK method of assessing the ground conditions on track.

As his example he assesses the runaway success of Great Endeavour in  the Paddy Power Gold Cup…

I think it was misleading for most bookies to mark Great Endeavour up as favourite for the Hennessy following this run. You only have to look at the horse's record to agree with trainer David Pipe's assessment that the 3m 2f of that race ‘might be a bit far'.

I have to agree with this assessment and see no value in following GE.

So let's assess the others…

Neptune Collenges – Excluded on age and recent form
Planet of Sound, Wayward Prince, Muirhead, Blazing Bailey – Recent Form
Fair Along, Balthazar King, Tullamore Dew, Billie Magern, Qhilimar – Out of the handicap
Beshabar – Needs further
Carruthers – Prefers small fields and heavy ground
Michel Le Bon – No recent form, hard to assess, possible danger
Sarando, The Giant Bolster – Suspect jumping ability
That leaves Aiteen Thirteethree & Wymott. We prefer Wymott who's last run can be excluded after picking up an injury. Set to carry just 10-2, he will also carry our stake. Good luck

Todays Tip

Newbury 3.50 Colour Squadron  (Result 2nd)

 

 

 

Longest Losing Run

Smart SiggerI've just been catching up with my reading, with this months Smart Sigger magazine.

This months issue includes Ebor Handicap Trends, a piece on the wisdom of crowds that looks at why starting prices reflect the true chance of a horse, a continuation of their implementation of a Bayes Theorem method. A system for betting debutantes in handicaps and an interesting piece about why you shouldnt always use past results as an indication of future performance.

But the piece I want to talk about today is a discussion of whether you are a gambler or an investor, which provided a reminder of the formula that you can use to calculate your longest expected losing run.

I think we have published this formula before but it's always worthwhile to revisit important fundamentals.

The gist of the article was that if you dont stake your bets consistently with your longest expected losing run then you are a gambler not an investor.

The formula for working out the longest expected losing run for a given strike rate is

LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)

If, like me you no longer have your log tables to hand, then you will need to use Excel or something similar to make the calculation.

By way of an example lets assume that we expect to make 400 bets this season and that the methods we use have a strike rate of 20%.

The 20% has to be converted to a decimal number, so we divide by 100 to give 0.20.

So the calculation is

LOG(400)/-LOG(1-0.20) = 26.85

So with a 20% strike rate over 400 bets we can expect a losing run of between 26 and 27.

Eddie Lloyd who wrote the piece goes on to state that if you intend to be an investor and not a gambler you had better have a bank and a stake size that can cope with the losing runs you can expect.

You can get your first issue of Smart Sigger for free – Click Here

Today's Selection

Lingfield 6.35 O Gorman – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor

 

2 Year Old Specialists

This weekend I've been looking through my library of racing and betting publications looking for systems and angles from previous years to see if they still hold.

Well I say library, it's actually a cardboard box that I keep in a cupboard!

I read an interesting piece in the July 2011 copy of the Betting Insiders Members Report about trainers who specialise or at least who are profitable with their juveniles.

So today I've checked out the stats for Ralph Beckett who does very well with his two year olds.

When concentrating on a particular trainer data can be limited with sample sizes small, so it can pay to just work out general rules that will get you a shortlist of horses that you can apply some form study to, to find your selections.

The headline figures for the Ralph Beckett 2 year olds back to 2003 are as follows…

Runs = 1130
Wins = 166
Strike Rate = 14.69%
SP Profit = 205.46
SP ROI = 18.18%

So it would seem that it's always worth paying attention to the Beckett 2 year olds.

Those numbers can be improved if we discard the runs in Nurseries (2 year old handicaps)

Runs = 919
Wins = 136
Strike Rate = 14.8%%
SP Profit = 210.96
SP ROI = 22.95%

Although the above stats look good over the long term and look like a good starting point for a profitable system, the recent years show a loss. This will be because the Beckett runners are now very popular with backers and although the strike rate holds up, the horse are over bet and there is no profit at SP.

One area where the prices are still holding up and that is still looking profitable is with the All Weather runners.

If we look at the last 5 years for All Weather 2 year olds in non handicaps each year has been profitable and the overall results are…

Runs = 136
Wins = 37
Strike Rate = 27.21%%
SP Profit = 98.29
SP ROI = 72.27%

Ralph Beckett has runners at Lingfield (AW) on Wednesday.

Today's Selection

2.30 Ayr West Leake Hare – win bet – 13/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Boylesport

Do You Back Favourites

I've just been catching up with some reading and found an interesting piece in this months Racing Ahead.

David Wilson has done some research on favourites and concluded that if you back all favourites that you will make a profit.

This goes against my beliefs, but it's not something I've checked on for a number of years.

David has made some rules to improve profits that seem a bit arbitrary to me, if you plan on betting all favourites as a result of this research then I suggest you read the full article yourself.

Here are the raw figures from November 2011 to January 2013.

Runs – 14391
Wins – 5146

Strike Rate – 35.7%

Return on investment – 1.4%

Over half the betting days were profitable and the longest losing run was 22.

These results can be improved to a 2.89% return on investment by setting an odds rule of evens to 5/1, this rule gave a profit of 347 points over the 15 month test period.

In the article David suggests some further rules that increase the return to 4%.

Racing Ahead is in newsagents at just £2.99 if you would like to see the full article.

If you picked up Lester's free system yesterday I can save you a bit of time going through the races today, there is just one selection which is Edmund Kean in the 2:00 at Taunton.

You can still get the system – Click Here

Today's selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

3.50 Wetherby Deise Dynamo – Win bet

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