Tag Archives: journey

Winning Trends

If you're a fan of building your own horse racing systems then one thing you must do to improve your systems is to break them down by trainer!

With any system creation you do these days you have to be targeting the small winning factor that you think will prove to be profitable.

There is no one system that can find you multiple bets everyday now, at least not one that makes a profit.

So any successful system that you create will likely drill down into one profitable angle and the fact is that in most cases there will be some trainers that exploit that angle better than others.

Or it may just be that some of the trainers that exploit it are not so popular and so are not overbet and so their runners start at value prices that can make a profit.

If you want further explanation of this strategy for improving systems then pop over to Winning Trends and watch the video there.

If you want daily selections from a portfolio of trainer based systems that have made an average of 18 points profit each month this year, then join the Winning Trends service for just £19.99 per month.

http://winningtrends.co.uk

Today's Selection

2:40 Kempton Greatest Journey – win bet – 5/1 Coral

Weekend Football Review

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

A Preview of this Weekends Action

As the Premier League enters its final phase one thing we did find out last weekend was that Arsenal don’t have the necessary mental strength to maintain a challenge for the whole season.

Their loss to Chelsea last Saturday was not just psychologically damaging but emphatically destructive. Yes there were dreadful mistakes made by the officials but that can’t paper over the cracks that have appeared in Arsene Wenger’s squad.

If he is to repeat and improve upon this superb attempt at the title next season then there can have been no clearer message delivered by Chelsea – you need a greater strength in depth and MUST add quality to your squad in the summer.

The money is there for Wenger and he needs to use it wisely and buy 2 or 3 world class players.

So, now the title chase has narrowed down to just three, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Theoretically Arsenal can catch up the six point gap but in the form that they are in I just can’t see any of the top three dropping many points.

This weekend Jose Mourinho takes his men on the short journey across London to face a Crystal Palace side still fighting bravely against relegation. With the Blues in imperious form at the moment I can see no other result other than a comprehensive victory for the league leaders.

Manchester City, although in third place are sitting pretty. They are just three points behind Chelsea but have two games in hand and this weekend’s game at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal could prove vital to their efforts to take the title.

The Gunners are a wounded beast after the defeat to Chelsea and a lack lustre display against Swansea in midweek. Will they be able to rouse themselves enough to ward off Everton’s challenge to their fourth place in the league?

I’m not so sure they will since the Citizens like Chelsea are in fantastic form. Their last five games has seen them score 11 and concede no goals at all. The form of Champions, surely?

This remains the most interesting game of the weekend – Arsenal have the ability to damage City’s challenge but do they possess the self belief? I see a narrow win for City but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Gunners snatch a draw.

Brendan Rogers and his Liverpool side must wait until Sunday to resume their challenge. I have to admit I suspected that their attempt at the title would have faltered by now – like Arsenal – but they continue to steam roller sides and score with delightful aplomb.

They play a Tottenham side who have performed very poorly against the top sides this season and will no doubt remember the 5 goal drubbing at the hands of Liverpool at White Hart Lane back in December.

The Reds have now won seven league games on the bounce and with the Lilywhites form very much Jekyll and Hyde I expect a home win and wouldn’t be surprised to see Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris getting a severe back ache after picking the ball out of the net several times.

It has to be said that I never thought I would be commenting on a Manchester United side that had lost six times at Old Trafford in one season and that those defeats would have been so comprehensive.

Last weekend David Moyes and his men lost in the Manchester derby by another three goal margin and one does have to wonder just how much longer the owners of the club will keep faith with their choice of manager.

Of course when Sir Alex took control of the Red Devils his first few months were poor. He was it is rumoured on the verge of the sack more than once but came through and I’d bet those in charge were glad they game him the time to get it right. However, the two United’s we are looking at are quite different.

Sir Alex’s first players were not world class – David Moyes’s are or at least were last season. Their total dominance over everyone last season was remarkable in that the same set of players this season seem so hapless.

They get the chance to resurrect their season tomorrow against Aston Villa and even though a Champions League place is probably out of reach I fear for Moyes’s position should they be unable to qualify for any form of European football next season.

As for their opponents Aston Villa, one would do well to be aware that they are not going to be a pushover. They have already this season defeated Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City and it wouldn’t surprise me if they added Manchester United to that list.

Once more as seems to be the case every week we see a couple of six point games at the foot of the table. Swansea have been in freefall of late and they need to get a win under their belt and get it quickly.

This weekend they play Norwich and if any side can emerge a winner then the three points gained could prove vital come the end of the season. A draw is the likely result given the lack of a cutting edge on display from both sides at the moment but this will do neither of them any favours.

Fortune as they say favours the brave and at this stage of the season some of these clubs facing relegation must start to play some good attacking football and try to force results rather than retreating into their shells and hoping a point will be enough for them.

The other relegation six pointer is at the Hawthorns as West Brom take on fellow strugglers Cardiff. A loss for Cardiff could prove terminal as they have in recent weeks begun to drift away from the pack at the bottom.

Although they are only three points from fourth bottom Crystal Palace they have played more games and with opportunities to win points becoming few and far between now they must start to win some games.

A loss this weekend and a win for their opponents West Brom will stretch the gap to six points and with a vastly inferior goal difference and having played one more game it could be curtains for the club from South Wales.

Top Tips

Once again there seems to be some easy money to be taken from the bookies this weekend as I expect both Chelsea (4/9) and Liverpool (5/11) to win and win comprehensively but for a slightly better return on your stake why not cash in on some more Moyes misery as I’d go for an away win for the Villans at Old Trafford at generous odds of 15/2.

If Villa do win it might be worth a quick punt on David Moyes to be the next manager to get the sack at 8/1.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Selection

4.15 Newcastle – Robbie – 10/1 Boylesports

Football Preview and Tips

We've got this weekend's football preview below, but first just a mention of today's Betfred offer, which is again a double odds offer.

If Bob's worth wins by more than 5 lengths then Betfred will double the odds on SP bets up to £500.

If you don't like risk, then make an SP bet with Betfred and lay the bet off at Betfair, if Bob's Worth wins by more than 5 lengths you will make a huge bonus.

Lay the bet just before the off to get an idea of what SP will be. http://betfred.com

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

A Preview of this Weekends Football Action

Last weekend Chelsea took full advantage of their rival’s involvement in the FA Cup by storming to a seven point lead at the top of the table. This weekend all of the top four face challenging ties away from home which may start to sort the boys from the men.

The early kick off on Saturday features a Manchester City side who will want to re-establish their credentials as the most free scoring and entertaining side in the country.

City suffered a surprising loss at the Etihad to Championship side Wigan in the FA Cup Quarter Final last week and amazingly it will be manager Manuel Pellegrini who is under the most pressure at the moment. It’s been a very bad week for the Chilean as he has witnessed his team crash out of the Champions League at the hands of Barcelona as well.

Tomorrow they face a Hull City side buoyed by their own progress to the FA Cup semi finals. The mega rich owners of the Citizens do not accept the slightest sign of weakness from their manager or his players so they will be desperate to get their season back on track.

I can only see one winner here as Negredo, Aguero and Co should be too much for the Tigers to contend with. But then again I thought that last week as well. I guess that’s the beauty of football.

There is a reason Chelsea have taken the Premier League by the scruff of the neck. Consistency. They have won eleven and drawn three of their last fourteen league games and that is the form of champions.

They travel to the Midlands to play Aston Villa – a team with recent form as full of holes as Miley Cyrus’s string vest. Three losses and a draw were followed up last weekend by a terrible start against Norwich.

With only one goal scored in the last three hundred and sixty minutes of football no one could have foreseen the incredible turnaround which saw them score four times in sixteen first half minutes to end the contest and take the points. Villa will need to take that form into this game if they are to stand any chance. John Terry and his band of merry men mullered Tottenham last week by four goals helped by a little bit of theatrics from Samuel Eto’o as he “won” a penalty which saw Younes Kaboul red carded for the challenge.

It was sad to see Eto’o join Ramires, Hazard and Oscar in the Chelsea Diving Club but thankfully the powers that be at least recognised this during the week as they rescinded Kaboul's sending off. Too late for Spurs but the correct decision to stop any further punishment for the unlucky Kaboul. Now, I’d like to see that taken a little further as they should also retrospectively punish those that clearly cheat to gain an advantage for their side.

In previous seasons the clash between Manchester United and Liverpool has been eagerly awaited as a potential powder keg of a game and I expect this Sunday we will not see too much Churchgoing Spirit being displayed at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils have won their last two matches but remain fallible and for the first time in many years it is Liverpool who will be favourites for the three points. Seven wins and two draws in their last nine games have seen Brendan Rogers and his side move into second place and this will be a huge test of their character.

If they can win at Old Trafford then the self belief will flood through their veins and it could lead to the start of a serious push for the title. The Triple S strikeforce of Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling are hitting some superb form and if they can over come the sense of awe that had under Sir Alex Ferguson pervaded Old Trafford then they could make the short journey back to Merseyside with all three points.

United under David Moyes have not yet gained that sense of awe and are proving to have a vulnerability about them that would have been unheard of in the last twenty years or so.

Sunday also sees the North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal. Spurs have struggled badly against the top four sides this season and have gained just one point in six games thus far. A draw with Chelsea in September has been their solitary success.

Losses to Arsenal by one goal and then two losses to Manchester City with eleven goals conceded have been combined with two further losses to Liverpool by five and Chelsea by four goals.

Games with their closest rivals Arsenal have been closer in recent years and form has often gone out of the window but with Tim Sherwood’s position in charge reported to be a matter of contention already he will not want to suffer a loss to the Gunners.

A win for Spurs could see them get to within three points of Arsenal but they will not need any added motivation to bust a gut in this game. It could prove to be an apt time to face their rivals since Arsene Wenger will be without Mesut Ozil as well as Jack Wilshere and a number of others struggling with injuries. I suspect the teams will nullify each other and a draw will prove to be a fair result.

Top Tips

Manchester City will get back on track and punish Hull City by a clear two or three goals. Best odds for a City win are at 4/7 although odds on Hull at 6/1 are generous for a home win at any time. Couple this with a gimme bet on Chelsea at 6/11 or if you’re feeling a little more adventurous why not have a little faith with Brendan Rogers and his men. Best odds on Liverpool are at 2/1 for a win at Old Trafford and I have a sneaking suspicion that the Pool will heap further misery on David Moyes and his misfiring malcontents.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Selection

Cheltenham 2.40 Kings Palace – win bet – 4/1 Ladbrokes

Quick Returns National Hunt Profits

Ok as promised yesterday, today I'm looking at quick winning returners in National Hunt races.

The head line figures for horses that have run and won within the last 5 days in National Hunt races across the UK and Ireland are…

Strike rate = 35%

Return on Investment = 12%

So the first thing to note is that over the long term there is a profit from these runners.

So let's dig in a bit and see what we can find.

The first thing I note is that 10 out of the last 11 years have shown a profit.

Unfortunately the year that lost was 2013, so that's not so encouraging.

So we started this journey looking at the difference between UK and Irish racing so lets see how they compare.

UK Ireland
Runs  936  377
Wins  353  115
Strike Rate  38%  31%
Profit iSP  + 123.75  + 36.28
ROI %  + 13.22 %  + 9.62 %

This time around it looks like we should focus on UK racing.

So, where to next. Let's start with age and sex, which might knock out some losers.

Female horses have a lower strike rate (32%) and produce a loss, so we'll drop them.

Dropping females brings 2013 up into a small profit.

With age, I would expect that older horses may make a loss, and they do.

But also as we are looking at National Hunt racing maybe very young horses should be excluded also.

Looking at the stats, the profit is in horses between 5 years old and 11 years old.

That makes sense to me so I'll restrict our search to horses in that range.

As you no doubt know, when researching systems it's easy to add any rule that makes your system look profitable.

But I think we are safe here because we have started with an initial idea, horses that won within the last 5 days running in a National Hunt race.

We've excluded female horses which is a straightforward removal that applies to lots of systems. And we've restricted our age range to drop out the very old, and past it, and the very young and immature.

Where to next?

I'm thinking there is probably a difference between Hurdle, Chase and NH Flat races.

In the last 11 years there are only 2 qualifying runs in NH Flat races, so we'll drop those.

The difference between hurdle races and chases is quite stark.

The strike rates are very similar but the profit is much greater in the Chases!

We are now getting down to quite a small sub set and will be down to only about 40 bets per year, but such is the way these days with a collection of micro systems being the only real way to win for system followers.

The end result for

Uk, National Hunt Chase runners that have won within the last 5 days and are male aged between 5 & 11 are…

Runs  340
Wins  136
Strike Rate  40%
Profit iSP  + 131.12
ROI %  + 38.56 %

 

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

14:00 Lingfield – Global Explorer – Win Bet 3/1 Bet Victor

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