Tag Archives: Juve

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

As promised we have another Royal Ascot Selection from Nick Hardman today.

Yesterday the free tips we posted finished 1st at even money and 3rd at 12/1, so hopefully you had a few pennies on those. Nick went on to make 4.4 points across the whole card.

If you want all of Nick's selections today you can find them in the Betting School Insiders Club and if you're not already a member you can join here.

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Today the first race is a tougher challenge…

2.30pm Jersey Stakes

From a betting perspective, Day 2 could not get off to a trickier start than a 7f race of 23 runners. As always, cases can be made for many so I will be using cautionary stakes on this one for sure.

At the head of the market are French Guineas 4th Muwaary @11/2 and Irish Guineas 3rd Mustajeeb @13/2.

Both will go close if they improve on those runs. Of the two I prefer Muwaary solely because John Gosden’s horses are running so well and he is the preference of jockey Paul Hanagan.

Aiden O’Brien has won the last two renewals and has three entered here, but they all need to improve on what they have shown this year to get involved.

However, before writing them off it is worth noting that Ishvana won this for O’Brien @20/1 in 2012 when largely unfancied.

Big Time @16/1 for John Joseph Murphy is interesting on his juvenile form (2nd in a Group 2 and 2nd in a Group 1 after winning his maiden).

He made his reappearance in the Irish Guineas and a mile seemed to stretch his stamina.

He has something to find with Mustajeeb on that running but gets 3lb here on that rival and he may well strip fitter for the run.

The horse that beat Big Time in those Group races was Sudirman. He came up short in Group 1 company after that and was a bit disappointing on his reappearance, managing just 4th in a Listed race.

He is another who will improve for the run but all of his winning has been done over 6f. He does rate a big danger if seeing out the trip and 20/1 is tempting.

Elsewhere, Parbold has become expensive to follow since his 2nd in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting last year. His conqueror last time out was That Is The Spirit who made it 3 from 3 in doing so. He has made all in 2 of those wins (and led from halfway in the other) and he might well be taken on for the lead here.

If that happens it would be no surprise to see Parbold reverse the form with Ryan Moore on board.

All in all a fascinating race and really one to watch rather than getting heavily involved in.

If pushed for a tip I would side with Muwaary @11/2 (I wouldn’t want to go any shorter than that) and Big Time at an each-way price of 16/1 (Bet365 go 4 places but offer just 11/1 on Big Time).

Don’t be surprised to see Sudirman @20/1 and Parbold @18/1 outrun their prices.

Rory Delargy Tips (Try for a Fiver)

Rory Delargy, who I first heard on Timeform Radio and Will Hill radio, has launched his own tipping service along with fellow Will Hill regular David Massey.

Rory currently represents The Irish Field in the Racing Post Naps competition and is a regular at the top of the Naps table. (I just checked and he's currently 3rd)

The new service that Rory and David have just launched has a first month trial price of just £5 and you can take that here http://racingconsultants.co.uk/

I have shared some of their analysis and tips on this site before, and as well as giving selections and suggested stakes they also share their assessment of the race and the reason that the selections have been made.

Here's an example of one they got right last week…

4.40 Fontwell – Wor Rom 1pt e/w 15-2 CoralWon 12/1

Fontwell – Similarly conditions are set to worsen at the Sussex venue and soft ground horses should be given utmost consideration. The 3.10 gets a mention due to the money this morning for Detour Ahead, one of three horses Warren Greatrex has got from Jennie Candish, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on today. Always had ability but it’s been difficult to unlock, and if this one wins you can expect good money for the other two when they run too. Dahteste is another that’s shown a glimmer of ability in that contest, and is another that needs keeping an eye on, having run well over C & D on rain-softened ground the time before last before disappointing again next time.

The only bet on the card comes in the shape of veteran Wor Rom in the 4.40. He’s possibly the one horse in the field you can put your finger on who won’t have any issues with this extended trip in soft ground, and the addition of first time blinkers may well rejuvenate him (has run well in cheekpieces before). With Andrew Thornton on board to bump him along, he should be staying on better than most here and ought not be out of the frame at worst.

So if you would like to try out a service from some real pro analysts at a bargain price then head over to http://racingconsultants.co.uk, I think it will be an education as well as profitable.

Today's Selection

6.05 Worcester Typhon De Guye – win bet – 11/2 Bet Victor

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