Tag Archives: juveniles

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Juvenile Debutants

Carrying on from yesterday… we briefly mentioned that some trainers were better at getting their juveniles ready for their first run than others.

Today I'm going to look at the stats for this.

The average strike rate of all 2 year olds on their first start in a maiden is just short of 7%.

So I guess we can say that any trainer that does better than that is good at getting their juveniles ready for a first run.

And any below that are not so good.

But there are 64 that strike 8% or better which is a lot to work through!

The king of the castle in this regard is Saeed Bin Suroor at 25%, as we mentioned previously. Then it's AP O'Brien on 19%, but I dont expect you'll get rich backing his runners.

We can overlook My Al Zarooni, but of interest is Mrs K (Elaine) Burke and Roger Varian both on 17% but from a fraction of the runners.

Looking at second runs the average strike rate jumps to 11.99% but our top trainers have a strike rate of over 30% with these runners.

AP O'Brien, strike rate = 35%

Saeed Bin Suroor, strike rate = 34%

Again Saeed Bin Suroor makes a level stakes profit and a 6.68 % return on investment.

When AP O'Brien has a two year old on it's second run it starts favourite 52% of the time!

And when they start favourite they win 53% of the time for a small profit and a return of 7%.

His first time starters are favourite 27% of the time and win 34% of the time making a loss of -23% ROI.

I shall certainly be paying closer attention to the maidens of AP O'Brien and Saeed Bin Suroor going forward.

Today's Selection courtesy of the Betting Insiders Club.

Yesterday of the two “Owner Watch” selections Stagemanship (adv 9/4) was backed into 13/8 and duly obliged despite running green and looking beaten at one stage.

For today we turn to a couple of selections from a current live community trial based on a mini set of micro methods for August. Yesterday this “Club Portfolio” contender highlighted Fortinbrass (adv 4/1) Won 3/1 from the two qualifiers.

Shot In The Sun (1455 Thirsk) 11/8 Bet365
Madrasa (1745 Thirsk) 5/2 BetVictor

Selling Profits

Following on from yesterday, today we are going to look at Selling races.

The difference between a Seller and a Claimer is that only the winner can be claimed in the form of an after race auction.

Sellers are regarded as the lowest type of race now that banded racing has bitten the dust and runners who take part in Sellers are often referred to as Platers.

Statistically there are a lot of similarities between Sellers and Claimers and although there are not so many races, once again it pays to stick to the 4yo plus races from a betting perspective.

Just over one in three races are won by the top weights and approximately seven of every 10 Sellers are won by runners from the top three in the weights.

Favourites win a third of all races and almost 80% of all winners come from the first three in the market.

Both statistically and numerically a recent run is advantageous, especially if a runner is returning within 21 days. (Approximately seven out of 10 winners).

Just under 50% of the runners finished in the first three LTO and be wary of any runner than finished outside of the first six LTO.

Only eight races of the 287 runners who came from Maidens won. The following trainers had a good record with their runners in Sellers:

Roy Brotherton Brian Ellison David Evans Dandy Nicholls Kevin Ryan Miss Gay Kellaway

Summary of runners in Sellers:

Look out for: Runners carrying 8 stone 7 pound or more, runners in the top three in the weights, runners in the top three in the market, runners aged 4yo and older, runners returning within 21 days, runners trained by Roy Brotherton, Brian Ellison, David Evans, Dandy Nicholls and Kevin Ryan and Gay Kellaway

My thanks go to the Betting Insiders Club whose Race Classifications Report supplied a lot of the data for the above – Find out more about the Betting Insiders Club at http://bettinginsiders.com

Todays Selection courtesy of the Betting Insiders Club

Yesterday Simple Magic (adv 8/1 EW) finished 3rd beaten a couple of necks. The Racing Post noted that she may well have won had her rider not decided to switch inside and come with a run up the rail, where the ground looks to have been slowest at recent meetings.

For the opening day of Glorious Goodwood we turn to the dynamic duo of the 2yo division, Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes. In recent seasons they have teamed up to amazing success at this festival, especially with the juveniles. In his column for the Racing Post Hughes said “You won't find many 2yo maidens with form as strong as Sacha Park” and that will do for us today.

Sacha Park (16.15 Good) Gen 7/4 Stan James, Corals etc

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