Tag Archives: Kauto Star

20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Today I have a Cheltenham bet from a tipster who made 65 points profit at last years festival and who set up the year for many of his members.

The bet is one leg of a yankee and if you want the other three legs there are details of a very special and cheap offer at the end of this post.

The four bets together will pay £29,248 for a 50 pence each way yankee if he pulls this off!

The Value Backing service is in great form at the moment and is already 33 points up for 2015 with a 118% ROI.

There have been winners this year already at  20/1, 18/1, 12/1 and shorter.

Here's the selection from Value Backing…

UPDATE – See The World will not run in the Champion Bumper 🙁

Champion Bumper Wednesday 11th March – See The World 1pt win @ 20’1 Betfred 

When it come to ante post betting at Cheltenham one of my favourite angles is to look for something out of the ordinary in a previous performance. Way back in 2005 I remember watching the great Kauto Star on just his second start for Paul Nicholls. He went through the race cruising in second gear only to fall at the second last. Back then a jockey could remount and Walsh having seen the winner go past him got back onboard and only just failed to win in a photo. Now the opposition may not have been world beaters, but that dramatic race indicated to me that Kauto could be something special and so it proved !
Now back in January this year at a cold damp day at Wincanton See The World put up something akin to that Kauto performance. He basically stopped to a walk 2 furlongs from home having taken up the lead and then hung left. What happened next is something I have never seen in a race. He started running again having given the ones that went by him 15 lengths start, caught them up and then breezed on by the runner up in the final 100 yard to win by 4 plus lengths and I was gobsmacked ! It is all well and good giving a few lengths  or so away at the start of a race, but 2 furlongs out, that should not have been possible.
Now again he may not have beaten much, but that performance was something out of the ordinary and as such I had to back See The World. He may well be a world beater only time will tell. But whatever happens at Cheltenham that performance at Wincanton is something I doubt I or anyone else will see again any time soon.
Carl Nicholson and Value Backing members cleaned up at last years festival with a whopping £653 profit to £10 stakes, with many members staking and winning much more.

This year you can join him on a special package for Cheltenham 2015.

Here's what you get…

  • A selection in every race at the 2015 festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing main service and Value Backing Extra selections from now until the festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing Daily selections every day from now until the festival
  • The sooner you join the more bets you get 🙂
  • The Value Backing ante-post Cheltenham Yankee, pays £29,248 for a 50 pence each way stake – the sooner you join the bigger the prices you can get!
  • Optional – discounted ongoing membership to Value Backing

The price is just £20 – Click Here to secure your place now.

Aintree Grand National Meeting Tips

Today we have an interesting article from Mark Foley of Trainer Trends about the Aintree Grand National meeting that kicks off tomorrow.

But before we get to the article I just want to tell you about the big race trends service that Mark is offering for the three days of the Aintree festival.

If you joined Mark for Cheltenham then you will know that he had a very profitable Cheltenham. The highlight for me was using the Free £50 bet that Bet Victor gave on Champagne Fever at 7/1.

Mark is doing exactly the same for Aintree for just £14.99 for the 3 days – Click Here to secure a place for this.

Ok, over to the article which will hopefully steer you away from some losers…

How does Cheltenham form hold up at Aintree?

Backing favourites isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but knowing whether a favourite is strong or weak is fundamental to having a bet. It’s impossible to ignore Cheltenham form when it comes to forming the market at Aintree and the bookies have often got it horribly wrong, horses that looked invincible at Cheltenham a few weeks earlier have looked a shadow of themselves at Aintree.

In the past 10 years you would have made a small 3% loss following the 147 Aintree favourites who earned their market position on the back of their run at the Cheltenham festival. Two completely different tracks; left handed; right handed; undulating; flat; stiff finish; flat finish, long run in. So is it worth backing a Cheltenham horse that goes off as favourite at Aintree?

It would have taken a brave man to oppose the following horses after their scintillating performances at Cheltenham Denman (twice; Evens and 5/4); Imperial commander 11/8; Master Minded 2/5; Albertas Run 6/4; Kauto Star 4/7. They all got turned over at Aintree of course despite their short prices, so how do you find a reliable favourite at Aintree?

The first point to note is that runners that finished in the first 2 at Cheltenham tended to do well at Aintree; add in the runners that didn’t finish their race at the festival but still went off as favourites and the results are transformed.

All but 7 of the 43 winners either finished in the first two at Cheltenham or failed to finish and as the table below illustrates they were profitable to follow:

Grand National Aintree Trends


Impressive figures and following such runners would have seen you make a profit in all but 2 of the last 9 Aintree festivals. 

The next salient point is that the favourites over the shorter distances had the best record; it would appear that the speedsters don’t have quite as much taken out of them as the runners over longer distances. Seventeen winners from only 28 runners for a 107% return in races over 16 and 16 ½ f.

Aintree Favourites

The following trainers did particularly well:

(Runners who went off as favourites at Aintree having run at the Cheltenham Festival).

Aintree Profitable Trainers

The above four trainers have provided over 50% of the 47 winning favourites who also ran at the Cheltenham festival in the past 10 years and Nicky Henderson’s record in recent years has been particularly impressive.

In conclusion, following the runners who went off as favourites at Aintree who finished in the first 2 (or failed to finish) at the Cheltenham festival; runners over the shortest distances and runners trained by the above trainers proved to be reliable favourites and were profitable to follow.

All the best Mark.

Today's Selection

Wetherby 4.40 Musnad – win bet – evens Paddy Power

Gold Cup – Oppose Long Run

We've got a piece from Mark Foley today on the Gold Cup but before we get into that I want to tell you about a special offer for Mark's Cheltenham service.

Mark will be running his trends eye over all the Cheltenham races and giving his analysis along with details of the selections he will be backing.

As a bonus to his Cheltenham service Mark is giving full access to his Trainer Trends service up to the end of April all for just £14.99.

Click Here

Why I won’t be backing Long Run in the Gold Cup:
(figures since 1997 unless otherwise specified).

A quick question. How many multiple winners of the Gold Cup have there been in the past 40 years?

The answer is two.

Best Mate won at a time when staying Chasers were at rock bottom and Kauto Star is the best staying Chaser since the great Arkle in the sixties.

No other Championship race at Cheltenham comes close to being as difficult to win on more than one occasion.

Multiple winners of this race are a rarity, it is hard to continually run over 3 miles over fences, which takes its toll as runners reach the limits of their endurance, meaning injuries are inevitable in the long run.

The extra 2 furlongs, the frantic pace and the stiff finish take a lot out a horse. Paul Nicholls mentioned in his Autobiography that Denman was lifeless for three weeks after his win.

Since 1990, all but 2 of the Gold Cup winners were 7-9 year olds.

Only one of the forty one 10yos won and only 4 made the frame. (11yo and older were 0 from 30 and only 4 placed)

French bred Long Run was a freak at 6yo, the first 6yo winner since 1962.

Long Run and Kauto Star were French Breds; they have a much better record as youngsters. 6 and 7 yo French bred runners were 2 from 13 and 4 were placed; 8yo French Breds were 1 from 35 and only 4 made the frame.

Even Kauto Star failed to dominate here once age caught up with him.

Kauto Star at 8yo and older in Gold Cup: Kauto Star was the French exception as he retained his title as a 9yo, but had a 1 from 5 record in the Gold cup once he reached the age of eight.

Still a wonderful record but the dividing line at the top is remarkably fine.

He may still have been able to do it as an older horse at Kempton but not Cheltenham. Remember we are talking about a freak of a horse, the best staying chaser since Arkle.

It’s not just Kauto Star:

Date Horse Odds Position

2012 Kauto Star (FR) 3/1 PU/14

2011 Kauto Star (FR) 5/1 3rd/13

2010 Kauto Star (FR) 8/11 F/11

2009 Exotic Dancer (FR) 8/1 3rd/16

2009 Kauto Star (FR) 7/4 1st/16

2009 Neptune Collonges (FR) 15/2 4th/16

2008 Exotic Dancer (FR) 17/2 5th/12

2008 Kauto Star (FR) 10/11 2nd/12

2006 Monkerhostin (FR) 13/2 6th/22

2003 Hussard Collonges (FR) 8/1 PU/15

The winners aged 8 or older tend to be Irish Bred runners; 5 from 34 with 9year olds.

Silviniaco Conti (7yo) and Sir De Champs (7yo) are both French Bred, whereas Bobs Worth (8yo) is Irish bred and as Cheltenham specialists look like far better bets to me than Long Run.

All the best Mark.

Today's Selection

Southwell 2.40 Hot Sugar – each way bet- 8/1 Will Hill

Gold Cup – Kauto Star?

Gold Cup – Kauto Star?

Today we have a guest post from industry expert Dave Renham…

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Dave Renham currently writes for the Racing and Football Outlook Newspaper, has produced website content for the At the Races website and has also worked as spotlight in the Racing Post.

You can get more excellent free stuff from Dave if you register for the free areas on his two websites at www.PunterProfits.com and www.RacingTrends.co.uk
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Cheltenham Gold Cup

I am a firm believer that the past has many important lessons to teach us. The more carefully one investigates the past the more likely one is to make sensible predictions about the future.

The big race of the Cheltenham Festival is the Gold Cup. I have studied the records of the last ten years and have highlighted below some of the stand out positive and negative statistics for this race.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 6 wins from 10 (PROFIT £8.85; ROI +88.5%). (based on Starting Prices)
Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Recent form: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Festival Form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won or been placed at a previous Festival (6 had won).
Age: 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 (16 of the last 18).
Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners came from one of three tracks –Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton.
King George: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the King George VI chase the previous December (for 6 of them it was their most recent start).
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 169 or bigger have produced 8 winners from only 22 qualifiers.
Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had not raced for at least a month.
Breeding: Irish bred runners have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 122 runners.
Age: Horses aged 10 or older are 0 wins from 48.

GENERAL STATS
Finishing positions of favourites: PU, 1, 1, 1, 11, 1, 2, 1, F, 1

CONCLUSION

The most interesting stats/trends angle this year is the fact that Kauto Star who is 12 years old is second favourite. He is a best priced 7/2, and is as low as 5/2 with Ladbrokes.

The problem for punters wanting to back him is that he has a huge age trend to break.

Of course trends are there to be broken, but since 1988 the record of horses aged 11 or older reads a dismal 0 from 46.

This is as far back as I can go as the Racing Post on line results stop at 1988.

However, I can add that the last winner aged 11 or older of the Gold Cup was What a Myth in 1969 when he was a 12 year old.

Hence we are probably looking at a losing run of around 80-90 runners for horses aged 11 or older.

Would you want to back Kauto Star knowing that?

OK, it looks a sub standard race this year but even so I’ll be sticking with the trends.

Advice – LAY Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Betfair

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

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Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Nesnaas 0.5pts EW (3.00 Leicester) 25`1 with various firms

Is a bit of a leap of faith when you look at jumps form figures. But has been running with credit on the flat recently for a new yard and the selection is very well handicapped if they have sweetened him up.

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