Tag Archives: later date

Henderson Debutantes Update

Back in November Daily Punt reader Derek shared a system with us for profiting from Nicky Henderson's charges having their first ever start.

You can read the original post here http://dailypunt.com/henderson-debutants-system/

Today I will update you on the results since we published that system.

There have been just 20 bets, so about 5 or 6 per month.

There have been 9 winners, which is a whopping 45% strike rate, which is very impressive for any live tested system.

The profit at industry SP is 25.63 points, which again is amazing and calculates to a whopping 128% ROI.Continue Reading

Laying Debutants

Ok. so we've done some research on debutants that don't win as well as their prices suggest.

Looking at yesterdays qualifiers they all lost, some at huge prices (66/1) but also some at more realistic prices.

We don't have the Betfair SP's, so although we have a 40% advantage over SP it may not be a winning lay system at Betfair SP because when we get to the big prices Betfair SP can be more than 40% bigger then industry SP. And that may be a reason to exclude bigger priced horses.

If anybody wants to volunteer to look up the Betfair SP's for the 1500 or so qualifiers so far this year then I'd be pleased to hear from you 🙂

For now I'm going to start recording the Betfair SP's going forward and will keep a record to see how the system performs in real life as it were.

The rules I'm using is the horse is having it's first ever run, there is at least 1 other horse in the race that has had a run and I've excluded the trainers I listed on Wednesday.

I may add a pricing rule at a later date depending on the outcome of the Betfair SP research.

Here are today's (lay) qualifiers…

14:00:00 Chester 7 Right Behind You
14:10:00 Thirsk 10 Aramadyh
14:10:00 Thirsk 11 Tortoise
14:40:00 Thirsk 3 Highway Pursuit
14:40:00 Thirsk 4 Little Bruv
14:40:00 Thirsk 6 Mustamir (IRE)
15:20:00 Sandown 4 Cape Summit
15:20:00 Sandown 13 Mind
15:20:00 Sandown 14 Stampede (IRE)
16:25:00 Sandown 1 Dark Amber
17:10:00 Salisbury 1 Desert Ace (IRE)
17:30:00 Southwell 2 Quick Decision
17:45:00 Salisbury 5 Marmarus
19:50:00 Killarney 10 Tilthemidnighthour

Today's Selection

Southwell 7.00 Golden Jubilee – win bet – 6/1 Boylesports

Race Reading an Alternative Winner Finding Method

Today we have a guest post from Carl Nicholson who is the brains behind the highly profitable Value Backing tipping service. Value Backing does not have bets everyday but the return on investment is exceptional. Click Here for more details and to join Value Backing. (There is an 8/1 selection today!)

Race Reading an Alternative Winner Finding Method

Race watching and reading is a subject very close to my heart and one that is not that well covered within the racing industry. It can be a hard skill to master, but in this article I hope to give the reader the first building blocks to start on the path to making this subject a vital part of your betting armour and one I hope the readers here on the Daily Punt find some benefit from.

First off you have to try and make sure you have as little in the way of distractions as possible when watching a race or it`s replay. But the most vital part of race watching is turn the sound OFF on your viewing devise. There is nothing worse than listening to commentaries in horse racing. While I am sure most if not all the good folk who do them are decent fellows, the amount of waffle they can produce in a race is mind blowing sometimes and gives the race reader nothing of any value. I sit watching Racing UK and ATR with the mute button firmly on during racing as it gives you a sense of being at the track without the back ground noise.

The most important part of the race is the start

As the saying goes, you cannot win a race from the start. But you can lose it !

This is such a true fact in British flat racing. As some trainers seem unable to get their horse`s to break smartly from the stalls on a consistent level. This should be a basic part of any horses education in my view, but one that is sadly overlooked by so many within the training ranks in this country. One trainer that does excel in this department is Mark Johnston. Even his unraced two year olds are more often than not quick from the stalls and this is the platform as to the reason he has so much success with front runners.

So watch as many starts as you can. This may seem rather odd at first as most people are attuned to just watching the end of a race. But trust me that is the least important part of a race. If you can familiarize yourself as to which trainers horses are good from the stalls you will have earned yourself a great advantage over the general betting public in future winner finding.

The jockeys hands

During the early stage of the race watch where the jockey has his hands on the horses neck. The hands should be placed one on each side of the neck just at the point of where the neck and the main body of the horse join together. The hands should be resting against the neck . This is a sign that the horse is in a good rhythm and has settled well. This should be carried over into the mid race and ideally until about two furlongs from home. Look for which jockey nearest the front of the race in question has the hands in the position outlined above and you will have probably found a horse that will go close to winning that race or another similar race next time out.

So there you go a few little pointers to get the ball rolling for anyone that is new to the subject matter. I hope to cover the subject again at a later date in the year here on the Daily Punt.

Carl Nicholson – Value Backing

Today's Selection

Doncaster 6.50 Specialty

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