Tag Archives: leg

20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Today I have a Cheltenham bet from a tipster who made 65 points profit at last years festival and who set up the year for many of his members.

The bet is one leg of a yankee and if you want the other three legs there are details of a very special and cheap offer at the end of this post.

The four bets together will pay £29,248 for a 50 pence each way yankee if he pulls this off!

The Value Backing service is in great form at the moment and is already 33 points up for 2015 with a 118% ROI.

There have been winners this year already at  20/1, 18/1, 12/1 and shorter.

Here's the selection from Value Backing…

UPDATE – See The World will not run in the Champion Bumper 🙁

Champion Bumper Wednesday 11th March – See The World 1pt win @ 20’1 Betfred 

When it come to ante post betting at Cheltenham one of my favourite angles is to look for something out of the ordinary in a previous performance. Way back in 2005 I remember watching the great Kauto Star on just his second start for Paul Nicholls. He went through the race cruising in second gear only to fall at the second last. Back then a jockey could remount and Walsh having seen the winner go past him got back onboard and only just failed to win in a photo. Now the opposition may not have been world beaters, but that dramatic race indicated to me that Kauto could be something special and so it proved !
Now back in January this year at a cold damp day at Wincanton See The World put up something akin to that Kauto performance. He basically stopped to a walk 2 furlongs from home having taken up the lead and then hung left. What happened next is something I have never seen in a race. He started running again having given the ones that went by him 15 lengths start, caught them up and then breezed on by the runner up in the final 100 yard to win by 4 plus lengths and I was gobsmacked ! It is all well and good giving a few lengths  or so away at the start of a race, but 2 furlongs out, that should not have been possible.
Now again he may not have beaten much, but that performance was something out of the ordinary and as such I had to back See The World. He may well be a world beater only time will tell. But whatever happens at Cheltenham that performance at Wincanton is something I doubt I or anyone else will see again any time soon.
Carl Nicholson and Value Backing members cleaned up at last years festival with a whopping £653 profit to £10 stakes, with many members staking and winning much more.

This year you can join him on a special package for Cheltenham 2015.

Here's what you get…

  • A selection in every race at the 2015 festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing main service and Value Backing Extra selections from now until the festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing Daily selections every day from now until the festival
  • The sooner you join the more bets you get 🙂
  • The Value Backing ante-post Cheltenham Yankee, pays £29,248 for a 50 pence each way stake – the sooner you join the bigger the prices you can get!
  • Optional – discounted ongoing membership to Value Backing

The price is just £20 – Click Here to secure your place now.

Odds On Value Bet

A lot of people will tell you that a bet is only value if it is big odds.

And that odds on bets cannot be value.

Those people are wrong.

To be value a bet only has to be available at bigger odds than the true chance of the event occurring.

I was reminded of this yesterday when I read an email from the Betfan Formula 1 service.

Rather than me re-write this in my own words I think it will make more sense if I show you the full message from Betfan F1

China Grand Prix

Statistical anomaly means bookies have got it wrong.

It’s happened for the first time this F1 season. Odds compilers have brought their banana skin to work, placed it under their chair leg and then decided to rock themselves on their seat while pricing up the Chinese Grand Prix.

There have been ten Chinese Grand Prix which have featured four Safety Car Periods. As that’s a good-sized sample it’s probably fair to say there is a 40 percent chance of a safety car being deployed this Sunday and 60 percent chance that it is not.

That converts directly into probability of 4/6 for no and 6/4 for yes. Funnily enough the best odds on offer for and against a safety car appearance is 4/6 and 6/5.

Therein lies the huge rick as only two races have actually been effected by a safety car period (when it was deployed twice). It means odds compilers have over-analysed their stats and should actually be betting 20 percent and 80 percent. That’s 1/4 no safety car and 4/1 that there is one.

There is another factor to consider which actually make a NO safety car scenario even shorter than 80 percent:

The last time it was brought into play, 2010, 24 cars lined-up for the race and not the 22 which will face the starter this Sunday. Two less cars means two less cars which can find themselves in a collision or stranded on a dangerous part of the circuit. That equates to eight percent.

Conclusion:

Not an attractive ‘get rich’ price but a hugely out-of-line all the same. 4/6 offers a return way in advance of what your money would if tied up in a five-year savings plan – and should give its yield after 90 minutes as opposed to 260 weeks.

BET – 6 Points on No Safety car @ 4/6

Hopefully the above explains why this bet is value more clearly than I could with hypothetical examples.

But to be clear the chance of a safety car being deployed is about 20% and the bookies have priced it like there is a 40% chance, so the 4/6 no safety car is huge value!

You can find out more about the Betfan F1 Betting service here.

And also I should mention that the Betfan free bets are currently topping the proofing table at Race Advisor and if you don't get their free bets you can sign up for free here.

Today's Selection

Newmarket 2.55 Toofi – win bet – 9/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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