Tag Archives: Limerick

Willie Mullins Update

Today we have two selections from the Willie Mullins systems I published on October 28th.

So today I have looked at how the system has performed since publication.

There have only been nine bets and they were…

18.11.2014 Wexford Measureofmydreams Won (RW)
18.11.2014 Wexford Aminabad Won (RW)
16.11.2014 Punchestown Hurricane Fly Won (RW)
15.11.2014 Punchestown River Run 2nd (RW)
15.11.2014 Punchestown Tarabiyn 2nd (RW)
9.11.2014 Limerick Uranna 3rd (PT)
9.11.2014 Limerick Lucky Bridle Won (PT)
9.11.2014 Navan Zaidpour Won (RW)
9.11.2014 Navan Uradel Lost (RW)

There were five wins which gives a strike rate of 55% and the wins have returned industry SP's of 2/9, Evens, 15/8, 2/7, 8/13 which actually gives a break even profit and loss.

At Betfair SP the winners returned 2.09, 1.26, 3.24, 1.28,1.62 which gives a 0.49 point profit before commission and a 0.26 point profit with 5% commission paid.

So not setting the world on fire but on the right track.

The letters in brackets indicate which jockey rode, Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend.

You can read the original article here…

http://dailypunt.com/free-national-hunt-system-2/

And the selections the system has thrown up today are…

1:25 Thurles Bosman Rule
2:00 Thurles Valyssa Monterg

Free National Hunt System

Thanks for your comments on yesterday's article I have more on the Willie Mullins runners today.

Willie Mullins

The first question asked in the comments was what are the returns if we only back the runners that carry the top jockeys at the most profitable tracks?

Well the answer is that you get a reduction in bets down to just 56 since January 1st 2013 but that you get a return on investment of a healthy 53%, so that's good.

But what I notice when I look at the performance at the various tracks when Ruby or Paul ride is that a lot more tracks move into the profitable side of the table.

And that if we add in those other tracks where a profit has been made then we can get the number of bets up over 200.

In fact we get 229 runs, 109 wins, 64.93 profit and 28.35% Return on Investment.

By the way most of the profit comes from Paul Townend, because when Ruby rides the horse is always overbet and the price starts much shorter 🙁

Anyway here's what we have now (results are from 1st January 2013 to yesterday)

National Hunt, Hurdle Races in Ireland at one of the following courses

Ballinrobe, Fairyhouse, Galway, Leopardstown, Limerick, Naas, Navan, Punchestown,
Sligo, Thurles, Tipperary or Wexford

Horse Trained by Willie Mullins

Horse ridden by Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend

Postion in market equals 1 to 4

Runs = 229
Wins = 109
Strike Rate = 47.6%
Profit at iSP = 64.93
Return on Investment = 28.35%

Today's Selection

6.40 Wolverhampton Deebaj – win bet 11/10 Paddy Power

Horse Racing 100% Strike Rate

Yesterday I was having a look around at the various features of Horse Race Base and took a look at a feature called Stat Attack.

Basically this feature looks at a lot of different stats and shows the horses that qualify and the specific strike rate for the horse under that rule.

So for example Horse Career Place – How many times the horse has run and how many times it has placed.

Now what struck me when I opened this page was that there were horses with a 100% strike rate and not from just 1 or 2 runs.

The top horse had 8 runs and had placed in all of them.

Here's yesterdays list

Stat Type Card No Horse Race Runs Wins or Places Strike Rate FC ODDS
Horse Trainer Place 4 Lots Of Memories (IRE) 2.35 Limerick 8 8 100% 3/1
Horse Career Place 4 Lots Of Memories (IRE) 2.35 Limerick 8 8 100% 3/1
Horse Hcap(non) Place 4 Lots Of Memories (IRE) 2.35 Limerick 8 8 100% 3/1
Horse Track Place 4 The Confessor 4.45 Goodwood 6 6 100% 10/1
Horse Trainer Place 1 Indevan 2.35 Limerick 5 5 100% 5/4
Horse Jockey Place 6 Marchese Marconi (IRE) 4.40 Curragh 5 5 100% 12/1
Horse Direction Place 1 Indevan 2.35 Limerick 5 5 100% 5/4
Horse Direction Place 4 Lots Of Memories (IRE) 2.35 Limerick 5 5 100% 3/1
Horse Hcap(non) Place 1 Indevan 2.35 Limerick 5 5 100% 5/4
Horse Distance Place 13 Heaney (IRE) 4.50 Limerick 5 5 100% 10/1
Horse Career Place 1 Indevan 2.35 Limerick 5 5 100% 5/4

 

The list is actually huge, I've filtered it to only look at horses with a 100% strike rate.

Just looking at these blindly without any further consideration you can see that we have the following…

Limerick 2.35 Indevan – Won 5/4
Limerick 2.35 Lots of Memories – Second 3/1
Curragh 4.40 Marchese Marconi – Second 12/1
Goodwood 4.45 The Confessor – Lose (4th 8/1)
Limerick 4.50 Heaney – Lose (5th 9/1)

I don't know what I'm going to do with this info yet, but I'm definitely going to have a closer look at it.

Here's today's…

Stat Type Card No Horse Race Runs Wins or Places Strike Rate FC ODDS
Horse Distance Place 14 Stiff Upper Lip (IRE) 5.10 Windsor 6 6 100% 14/1

 

Just the one horse with a 100% strike rate and the stat is “horse distance place” so the horse has run at this distance 6 times and placed 6 times. It is available at 9/1.

Lay Debutants

13:50:00 Salisbury 9 Janets Legacy
13:50:00 Salisbury 3 Mr Wickfield
13:50:00 Salisbury 13 Rapunzal
14:00:00 Windsor 10 Bon Port
14:00:00 Windsor 1 Comanchero (IRE)
14:20:00 Salisbury 3 Darting
14:20:00 Salisbury 5 Kate Kelly (IRE)
14:50:00 Salisbury 2 Alumina (IRE)
15:05:00 Windsor 12 Exotic Lady (IRE)
16:55:00 Limerick 7 Katachenko (IRE)

Today's Selection 

4.20 Musselburgh Rothesay Chancer – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet 365

 

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