Tag Archives: live results

Headgear Racing System

So last week I told you about an article over at Geegeez that put forward the idea of backing Paul Nichols runners who wear headgear for the first time.

So today I have done some research and investigated all the trainers who have been profitable in the past with their runners who were wearing headgear for the first time.

I'm looking at National Hunt only and am looking at horses who are wearing cheekpieces, blinkers or a hood for the first time.

Along the way I discovered a system with a 10,000% ROI!

Ok, I spotted a trainer who in 2014 only had one runner (Viking Rebel) who wore headgear for the first time and that runner won at 100/1.

Although that would make any system look like a winner I have not included it in my system below.

What I have got is a long list of trainers who had at least 10 runners wearing headgear for the first time from January 1st 2013 through to December 31st 2014 and who made a good profit at iSP with those runners.

Runs = 767
Wins = 127
Strike Rate = 16.56%
Profit at industry SP = 405.23
ROI = 52.83%

All the research was done on the data from 2013 and 2014 and if I run that system on 2015 so far it has already made 42 points profit in 2015.

But, here's the thing!

You could've backed every horse that wore headgear for the first time so far this year and made a profit.

I'm going to monitor this for a while and share any bets that come up on this page and then decide what to do with it once we have some live results.

There's no National Hunt racing today.

Today's Selection

3:10 Wolverhampton – Don't Be – win bet – 10/11 Paddy Power

Lay the Frogs

Don't you just love it when you spend hours researching a system looking into an angle that you think will highlight some winners all for nothing.

Or worse still when you research a system and you think you've found a micro system with a little pocket of profit and you set it up in Horse Race Base to notify you of future runners and a year later it's had just seven qualifying bets and all seven have lost.

That's the results from a system I created last January and I've been waiting for some live results to prove it works before I write about it.

It looks like that day will never come šŸ™

Whats worse still is that Derek MillerĀ has just released a laying system that uses a similar angle to make big profits from laying.

It's not the same angle I was looking at, I was looking at French bred horses on one particular all weather course.

Derek's system is selecting French breds in National Hunt races, but it does serve to remind me that there are profits in following horses that are bred for different environments and that I knew that but I didn't find the profit.

And DerekĀ has.

The good news, for you, is that the system is free.

You can get it here http://dailypunt.com/freelayingsystem

Today's selection

17:10 Wolverhampton Apparatchika – win bet – Evens Boylesports

Sire Systems II

We have two more sire micro systems today, these are courtesy of reader Simon French who commented on yesterday's post with two sire systems of his own.

Let's look at the first of those sires, and that is Dom Alco (FR).

The first thing I notice when I look at Dom Alco progeny is that you could've backed them all to date and made a level stake profit (5% ROI). So that's a good sign.

Simon has just two additional rules, which are the horse age which must be between 5 and 8 years old and the race distance which must be between 2 mile 6 furlongs Ā and 3 mile Ā 1 furlong.

This gives the following results.

Runs = 187

Wins = 45

Strike Rate = 24.06%

Profit = 70.96

Return on Investment = 37.95%

The only thing I would say about this one is that the profit last year was lower than previous years, so I'll be looking for some signs that this is still going to be profitable in the future.

The next system bets Dubawi (IRE) progeny and there are a lot of them.

Backing all is a break even proposition.

The rules that Simon suggests are course equals Southwell (AW), age equals 3 to 5 and distance equals 5 furlongs to a mile.

This gives the following results.

Runs = 44

Wins = 18

Strike Rate = 40.91%

Profit = 62.09

Return on Investment = 141.11%

Again, this one had a poor 2013.

I will definitely be following both over the coming weeks, but will save my money until I have see some good live results.

Thanks Ā Simon, I've got a spare copy of Value Backing by Carl Nicholson sitting on my desk which I'd be happy to send you. Email me your address and I'll pop it in the post.

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Southwell 3.40 Arr Kid – win bet – 11/4 Betfred

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