Tag Archives: Lively Baron

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Today’s Selection

Carlisle 3.20 Lively Baron – win bet – 10/3 Paddy Power

Grand National Trial Selection

2.55 Haydock
Grand National Trial
3m4f — Grade 3 H’cap Chase — Heavy

Introduction:

Okay, so first things first, you’re probably wondering who the heck I am. So please allow me to briefly introduce myself – and feel free to skip straight to my preview of this week’s Haydock Grand National Trial if you’re in a rush!

My name is Connor Gallagher. I’m 20 years old, and I’ve been earning a very healthy full-time income from betting on horse racing for the last 4 years. I’ve had a keen interest in racing ever since I was a kid, and had my first bet at around the age of 11. A very different story to many of the so-called “tipsters” I am sure you will agree.

Secondly, you’ll also be glad to hear that I’m not going to insult your intelligence by saying that I’ve made millions from betting. I haven’t. I don’t live in a luxury mansion in the centre of Newmarket, and I don’t claim to have access to any “inside information” either.

My selection process combines trends and statistical analysis with in-depth form study in an aim to identify “value” and unearth regular big-priced winners. I bet mainly in the top-class races – i.e. big handicaps, graded races, and the major meetings such as Cheltenham and Aintree.

Today I wanted to give you a feel for how my new Trends Betting service works, by giving you the lowdown and highlighting the value in the Haydock Grand National Trial. I’ll also be contributing to the Daily Punt website on a more regular basis so if you enjoy this article be sure to stay tuned for more of the same!

If you’re also interested in checking out my full service, I’m currently running a special offer this weekend only where you can sign-up for a full year for a low one-off payment of ONLY £57! But hurry, because places are very limited. You can also grab a FREE copy of my new book by simply visiting TrendsBetting.co.uk – Click Here.

Anyway, let’s get crackin’…

Race Preview:

Silver By Nature

Won this in 2010 and followed-up in great style under top weight in 2011, so has to be respected, but he’s been off the track since finishing well-beaten in that year’s Grand National and it’s hard to say how much ability he retains. He’s 11 years old now, and despite a record that reads F211 on heavy ground at 3 miles and beyond, his form figures after a break are somewhat less impressive and it’s likely this is just a starting point.

Teaforthree

Very lightly-raced for a 9yo, this Welsh National 2nd has a very strong trends profile but is without the assistance of Tony McCoy from the saddle this time. He stays all day and ought to handle conditions well, but I’m not sure whether this flatter track will see him to best effect, although the slight uphill finish should play to his strengths. Another question mark is obviously whether he can reverse form with Monbeg Dude as, despite being 3lbs better off with his Chepstow conqueror today, the winner didn’t jump well at all at Chepstow and was given a perfectly-timed ride by Paul Carberry.

Cannington Brook

A three-time course winner and confirmed mud-lover, this one finished 5th in last year’s Welsh National and has been steadily improving since, resulting in a 16lb rise in the handicap. He rarely runs a bad race, has a strong trends profile and looks sure to run creditably with Tom O’ Brien (3-5) booked to ride. I just don’t think he’ll be quite good enough on the day, and he had a tough race at Ffos Las.
Giles Cross

Last year’s winner ran very well for a long way at Chepstow, jumping soundly in front and was only headed entering the straight. He stopped very quickly that day but was entitled to in such wintery conditions given that he’d been off the track since pulling-up in the Grand National. Of course, he’s 6lbs higher than when beating Neptune Collonges in this last year, but it’s possible he can bounce back today and it’s certainly worth noting that Denis O’ Regan is riding again as surely that’s a hint that he still retains much of his ability. This year’s renewal looks tougher, however.

Monbeg Dude

A quirky and improving young horse that clearly has his own way of doing things and was given a fantastic waiting ride by Paul Carberry in the Welsh National. It may also be worth noting that he was the only hold-up horse to finish within the first 5 at Chepstow – all of the others had raced prominently – and this, coupled with the fact that his jumping left an awful lot to be desired, arguably makes his victory all the more meritorious. This flatter circuit shouldn’t be an issue, and the slight uphill finish should play to his strengths, but the fences are stiffer here and his jumping will have to improve. He boasts a perfect trends profile and Carberry rides again, but he’s never ridden at Haydock before.

Neptune Equester

A course and distance winner last year, this one possesses stamina in abundance and handles all types of going. He’s slightly overexposed in comparison to many of these, and is arguably quite a bit short of top class, but has been campaigned somewhat shrewdly and could be the one to spring a surprise. Danny Cook takes the ride and he’s won on him around here before. Very strong trends profile also.

Viking Blond

Another who probably isn’t quite top class, but is a tough sort that has been running well consistently without winning. He seems to handle all kinds of going, but his better efforts have been on undulating tracks on better ground. That’s a worry, as is the fact he’s French-bred, but most alarmingly his record at beyond 3 miles is 0-4-12.

Rigadin De Beauchene

Improved markedly for the step-up in distance last time – winning Warwick’s Grade 3 Classic Chase – and clearly likes soft ground. He’s still very unexposed for an 8yo, and even further improvement looks likely. He’s another who possesses a fine trends profile, despite being French-bred, and his owner won this with Miko De Beauchene in 2008, who was also subsequently transferred to Venetia Williams. My only worry is that this is a much tougher race than he has contested before, and another step forward is definitely needed. He’ll probably be overbet and doesn’t offer much value in my opinion.

Well Refreshed

An interesting one at the bottom of the weights trained by canny Sussex handler Gary Moore, with 3lb claimer and son Joshua Moore riding. He had the beating of subsequent Grade 3 winner Rigadin De Beauchene two starts ago, on heavy ground, but was receiving a stone in weight that day and has risen 21lbs since. His jumping is another worry and the last 17 winners of this contest had already finished 1st or 2nd in a Class 2. He hasn’t.

Lively Baron

A progressive stayer who looks sure to be better suited to a faster surface, albeit he’s won on soft. He often races in blinkers, but didn’t have them on when beating Major Malarkey at Sandown two runs ago. That’s his best effort to date and, whilst he’s arguably open to further progress and despite his trainer’s good record here, others are readily preferred today.

Triggerman

Very lightly-raced for a Philip Hobbs-trained 11-year-old, he’s extremely versatile and looks well-handicapped. His 3rd in the Welsh National was only his second run back from a long layoff, having previously finished 4th in Sandown’s Bet365 Gold Cup, and it’s possible he’ll come on again for that last run. He’s also dropped another 2lbs in the handicap, with James Best taking off an additional 3lbs, and is weighted to go close. On the other hand, his trainer’s chasers are just 1-16 at the track, so that’s a slight worry.

Conclusion:

Overall a very competitive handicap containing a large number of improving horses taking on their older rivals, including winners of the last three renewals.
Monbeg Dude is undoubtedly the pick of the bunch from a statistical angle and offers decent value, albeit Welsh National runner-up Teaforthree also has sound claims and so too does Triggerman, who finished 3rd at Chepstow and looks extremely well-handicapped based on his form from a couple of seasons ago.

Three-time course winner Cannington Brook obviously excels in these conditions and ought to be respected under Tom O’ Brien, whereas Warwick winner Rigadin De Beauchene faces stiffer opposition today and needed every yard of the 3m5f trip last time out. It’s possible he’ll find this a lot tougher from a 9lb higher mark.

Of the remainder, Neptune Equester has a brilliant trends profile and should be staying on at the finish provided he can remain in touch in this higher grade, and he also looks appealing at the likely odds.

Betting Advice:

Monbeg Dude – 1pt win – 13/2 Totesport, Betfred
Triggerman – 0.5pt win – 12/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Coral
Neptune Equester – 0.5pt win – 20/1 Totesport, Betfred

Cheltenham Day Two

Well I thoroughly enjoyed yesterdays racing but walked away a bit poorer.

Paddy Power refunded all my Arkle Chase bets so no loss there.

Of the others I had some good runs for my money but no profit other than my biggest bet on deservedly short priced Quevega.

Cheltenham Day Two

Today I will be backing Sizing Europe (3.20). The even money is gone now, but this horse is a class above the opposition here.

As yesterday we have been allowed to give you Mark Foley’s assessment of the first race of the day.

1:30 – NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP 4 MILES.

A typical winner of this race is a 7 or 8yo, who has had at least three races over fences and finished in the first 4 LTO. Last year’s winner was the first outright winning favourite of the race since 1992.
Since the race structure was altered five of the last 9 winners carried 11-6 or 11-7 and all but one of the last ten winners carried between 11-6 and 11-11.

The market also appears to have stabilised in recent years, with the biggest priced winner in the last 4 years being 14/1 shot Poker De Sivola. Being a race for amateur riders it’s important to have a decent jock on your side and the last 3 winning jocks have all been top class amateurs. (Derek O’Connor, Katie Walsh and Sam Waley Cohen.)
The younger runners get an age allowance, but generally it isn’t considered enough for them to win although Tricky Trickster did baulk the trend 3 years ago; the only 6 yo in the race is Four Commanders.
Shortlist:

Blenheim Brook
Lively Baron
Teaforthree
Universal Soldier

All four of the runners shortlisted are running off 11-6, but Teafrothree would be giving the other four shortlisted runners at least 8 lbs if this was a handicap and he also has the benefit of arguably the best rider in the race.

JT McNamara won this race on the Jonjo O’Neill trained Rith Dubh. His record at Cheltenham is a superb 12 wins from 49 races, although most of the wins have come on the Cross country course.

Teaforthree held an RSA entry and was keeping company with Grand Crus no less in a grade 1 chase over Christmas. The stable appear to have made a wise choice taking in this race rather than the RSA and if his rating of 146 is realistic, which it appears to be then TeaforThree looks to hold a good chance of taking this.

That rating was achieved at Chepstow in a Novice chase in November and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th home that day have all come out and franked the form since. He returned to Chepstow in February and won again, but races off the same mark again today.

He looks progressive and the form line with Join Together who is 3rd favourite for the RSA gives him a good chance in this lesser race.

Paul Nicholls has a poor record in this race – only 1 of the 14 runners he has previously entered in the race has even made the frame, but Harry the Viking is the early favourite for this race.

History tells us that winners of this race need a good deal of experience to deal with the hustle and bustle of a big field and it must be a concern that he has only had 5 career races and two over fences. He does look progressive and his form is impressive, but he has been put up 8lb for winning by a head LTO at Doncaster.

Lively baron was 8 lengths behind that day and a disappointing favourite but followed up with a 16 lengths win at Warwick last month. At the revised weights today Lively Baron shouldn’t be far behind Harry the Viking and the 33/1 looks too big, especially when you consider how well the McCain runners performed yesterday.

Irish based trainers have a poor record in the race, but Gordon Elliot broke the trend last year and Soll is very unexposed coming from point to points and has a decent jockey in Katie Walsh. He has never raced on ground this firm, but looked most impressive in winning LTO

Selection: Teaforthree 6/1 with Hills
Danger: Soll
EW Danger: Lively Baron

To get the rest of the day two selections Click Here to join the Betting Insiders Club

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Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Cotton Mill 2.05 Cheltenham 1pt WIN @ 10`1 general

Very good flat pedigree and looks a class act. By not being trained by one of the top stables he seems to have been overpriced by the bookies.

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