Tag Archives: long run

Avoiding Duff Tipsters (and finding the gems!)

The amount of times i’ve been asked for help after someone has paid a substantial sum for (enter Mr Hot Shot’s betting service) tips only to find their bankroll down 50% after a few weeks is astounding.

Here’s a couple of things to watch out for when looking for a genuine betting service:

1. Little or no proven track record – genuine tipster’s will have the results to back up their claims. If you can’t find the results, ask for them. If you don’t get them, don’t waste any more of your time – without the results it’s likely the profit claims are false.

2. No trial period or money back guarantee. Genuine tipster’s will be happy to provide a cheaper trial so they can prove their worth. Likewise, they will not be afraid to offer your money back over a certain period because if their strategy produces profit, the vast majority won’t ask for a refund. So at least one of these things is a must.

Another thing to avoid is going all in with a single strategy. Betting always comes with a certain level of risk, so anything we can do to spread this risk is going to be beneficial in the long run. Test the water with a few different strategies, systems or tipster services and find out what works for you. Then you can begin to build a betting portfolio which will ensure those much sought after long term profits.

Sound Complicated? Well, why not simplify things and try this.

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Over two years of proven results, great reviews from trusted independent sources, and a 30 day money back guarantee are a few of the things that puts this service a cut above, and it’s one of the very few I can thoroughly recommend.

But that’s not the best part. With this you get no less than 3 separate betting strategies included, meaning you have an instant betting portfolio, no effort required!

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Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Newcastle:Slunovrat 5/1 generally

2 Year Old Maiden Systems

Maidens can be some of the hardest races to assess.

Often there is no form at all to go on, so how can you possibly pick a winner when non of the runners have ever raced before.

Even if you have inside info about one particular runner you don't know how good the other runners are.

For these reasons many punters avoid Maidens.

But when things are difficult to work out that means there is value to be had for those that find a way.

This week I've been reading through my back issues of the Betting Insiders report and I found an interesting article that showed that by simply profiling sires a profit could be made and a 2 year old maiden system could be created.

One of the sires featured was Invincible Spirit.

And pretty much you can back the progeny of Invincible Spirit on their first run and make a profit over the long run.

The article details a number of other Sires who produce winning 2 year olds and a number that should be avoided.

But what's special about Invincible Spirit is that he has a runner today and we've made it today's selection…

For more info on Betting Insiders Click Here

Today's Selection

Lingfield 2.20 Inspiriter – eachway bet – 17/2 Bet Victor

Value Betting System

I have been talking recently to a guy who started his betting career on a serious basis a few years ago. And by serious I mean he had to live off of the money he won.

He told me about the method that he used to find his value bets, which required no form study, and essentially was just comparing prices between bookmakers and Betfair.

This is a method I've heard about before and I've now done a bit of research for this article.

Basically the theory goes something like this…

1. Betfair odds represent the true chance of a horse winning (Wisdom of Crowds etc)

2. If you can get better odds from a bookmaker than the Betfair odds you have value.

3. When you find such a bet you either back with the bookie and lay off at Betfair for a guaranteed profit or just back the horse with the bookie because it is a value bet and you will win in the long run.

So I'm sure that has raised two questions in your mind, how profitable is it and how hard is it to find the selections.

Let's start with finding the selections, basically all this requires is to scan though the cards at Oddschecker looking for horses that have a bigger bookies price than the Betfair price.

Then clicking through to Betfair to see if you can lay the selection at shorter odds than the bookie price. If you can then place the bet with the bookie and either lay it or not at Betfair depending on which strategy you are using.

While looking for some data to confirm that this is still a profitable strategy I came across a tool that will find the bets for you and this tool has a results page showing results going back three years. Here's a screenshot for 2012.

Racing Synergy results

You can click here to get the full breakdown on Bet Synergy.

If you've used this method, this software or anything similar do let me know in the comments.

Today's Selection

Southwell 4.05 Burgoyne – win bet – 2/1 Bet365

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