Tag Archives: maximum loss

Stop at a Winner Systems

Today Malcolm from http://greyhorsebot.com is back with details of a test he is running on a stop at a winner system…

Stop at a winner.

Have you ever tried a stop at a winner system?

You know where you have a number of selections for the day but stop as soon as you get the first win?

The people against SAW argue…

…”If the selections you are using are profitable then why stop?”

Although I agree some of my experiments are showing that they can actually be just as profitable or more so over time.

It can also mean you don’t have to put up with so many losers.

There is no doubt that SAW won’t work for every system and they are more suited to high strike rate systems where you have a 40% or above strike rate.

This normally means you are on quite fancied and sometimes low priced runners.

Looking through the race cards and looking at just the 1st and 2nd favourites is a good place to start and can easily give you 3 or more selections to use each day if you carefully consider which ones to use.

The other thing you need to consider is stop loss.

I have found that on days where things are not going to plan it’s pointless to just keep going.

In fact it is better to get yourself out after 3 or 4 losses than it is to keep hoping for a win and then having to make up a lot of lost points.

Also by limiting your maximum loss does allow you to consider different staking options.

If you are interested I have set up and experiment over at the Grey Horse Bot web site.

The selections are chosen using 3 criteria.

– They must be highest ranked by price early in the morning (around 6am)
– Their in-house rating should be 100 or more (you can choose this figure)
– Their price must be the same or lower when we get the mid morning prices (11am to 11.30am)

I am calling it an “interactive” test because you can experiment with the rating number.

You can see the results using all the selections and SAW.

You can even get the daily selections so that you can follow along and see how it actually works.

Click Here to have a look

Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

3.20 Southwell Red Stripes – win bet – 7/4 Paddy Power, Bet 365

47 Points Profit

Before I talk some more about the lay system we are developing I just want to update on the Mystery Horse Bot.

We've had a lot of people ask about it since it had a losing run that ran into the beginning of August.

However in the second half of August it made 50 points profit to move ahead from the starting point.

The ups and downs of profit trends is what knocks out a lot of would be successful gamblers, but almost any method will have drawdowns and at the beginning they are likely to drop down below your starting point.

The position now since we first opened up places on the bot is + 47.13 points.

If you havent tried the bot before you can still trial it for a month at £20.


Debutant Lays

We've had a few comments and emails now about the huge prices of the debutants that we are laying, so I just want to clarify how I intend to use these.

I have layed all the selections since Friday at Betfair SP.

With Betfair SP you make your selection and then enter how much money you are prepared to risk.

This then is your maximum loss on that runner, and if you lay multiple runners in a race at the same liability then that is the maximum liability on the race.

So there is no need to have a large bank to try this out.

The minimum liability allowed by Betfair is £10, so that is your risk on the race whether the selection starts at 3.00 or 300.0.

Of course the returns betting this way reflect the liability, but it does allow us to lay big priced horses and build our bank gradually.

So far the profit from laying the selections to the minimum liability over the last 3 days is £6.34 after commission.

Of course if this profits over the long term then I will be happy to risk much higher liability and the profits will be more worthwhile.

Here are today's lays…

16:00:00 Brighton 6 Norway Cross
16:45:00 Roscommon 1 Air Wolf (IRE)
16:45:00 Roscommon 4 Bribe The Bouncer (IRE)
16:45:00 Roscommon 13 Pretty Angel (IRE)

Today's Selection

2.10:00 Hamilton Les Gar Gan – win bet – 13/8 Paddy Power, Bet victor, Boylesports

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