Tag Archives: morning prices

Stop at a Winner Systems

Today Malcolm from http://greyhorsebot.com is back with details of a test he is running on a stop at a winner system…

Stop at a winner.

Have you ever tried a stop at a winner system?

You know where you have a number of selections for the day but stop as soon as you get the first win?

The people against SAW argue…

…”If the selections you are using are profitable then why stop?”

Although I agree some of my experiments are showing that they can actually be just as profitable or more so over time.

It can also mean you don’t have to put up with so many losers.

There is no doubt that SAW won’t work for every system and they are more suited to high strike rate systems where you have a 40% or above strike rate.

This normally means you are on quite fancied and sometimes low priced runners.

Looking through the race cards and looking at just the 1st and 2nd favourites is a good place to start and can easily give you 3 or more selections to use each day if you carefully consider which ones to use.

The other thing you need to consider is stop loss.

I have found that on days where things are not going to plan it’s pointless to just keep going.

In fact it is better to get yourself out after 3 or 4 losses than it is to keep hoping for a win and then having to make up a lot of lost points.

Also by limiting your maximum loss does allow you to consider different staking options.

If you are interested I have set up and experiment over at the Grey Horse Bot web site.

The selections are chosen using 3 criteria.

– They must be highest ranked by price early in the morning (around 6am)
– Their in-house rating should be 100 or more (you can choose this figure)
– Their price must be the same or lower when we get the mid morning prices (11am to 11.30am)

I am calling it an “interactive” test because you can experiment with the rating number.

You can see the results using all the selections and SAW.

You can even get the daily selections so that you can follow along and see how it actually works.

Click Here to have a look


Thanks
Malcolm
Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

3.20 Southwell Red Stripes – win bet – 7/4 Paddy Power, Bet 365

Automated Betting

Today we have a new article from Malcolm Pett the creator of the Grey Horse Bot.

To find out more about the GreyHorse Bot visit Malcolm website here http://greyhorsebot.com
—-
Knowing when to say enough is enough…

One of the reasons I originally created the Grey Horse Bot is that it allowed me to automatically stop betting.

And it also stopped me chasing loses.

I started in the early days with greyhound racing (that’s where the “Grey” comes from) and I followed a “Stop at a winner” system.

The problem I had was that even after that first win I couldn’t help myself starting again.

There were so many Greyhound races everyday that if I won early, it was just too tempting not to try again.

Of course you know what happened next…

…I couldn’t get a winner.

This led to the second problem of not knowing when to cut my losses.

Creating the Grey Horse Bot allowed me to “set and forget” knowing full well the bot would either stop as soon as it got a winner or if I hit my stop loss.

The other problem with Greyhound racing is that Bags races happen every 10 minutes and it is so easy to miss a race when the phone rang or you start chatting to someone.

Even reading an email can be enough to take your attention away from the racing just long enough to miss a race.

Having the Grey Horse Bot do everything for me just made life a lot easier.
The next step was to run the bot on a VPS or server that was permanently attached to the internet at all times.

This meant I didn’t even have to think about the bot, day to day.
Our longest running test was over 6 month’s non-stop. It would have been longer except the server had to be reset for an important update.

Testing is a very important part of my day to day betting activity and although I am a great believer in “paper” testing and would suggest you always do this…
(The Grey Horse Bot does paper test as well.)

…It’s not until you actually bet live when you find out if the selections your following are going to produce a profit.

I think this is where automated betting comes into its own.

Having the ability to set aside part of your bank just for these selections and set a stake that is smaller than you would normally have to use, all helps in the testing process.

Here is an example.

In last week’s article I introduced a new test for a simple system I came up with using 2nd ranked runners based on the BSP early morning prices.

Here is the article.
http://dailypunt.com/one-winner-per-day/

So I set up a Grey Horse Bot on one of our servers and set aside a £10 bank for the test.

I like to use a % of bank as my start test stake.

This may not work well with all systems but I find it a good place to start.
And if the test goes well then your stake should naturally increases but if not, your stake drops.

If I know the strike rate of my system I normally work out the Longest Losing Run expected statistically, add a little and use the figure as my stop loss.

If not…I normally set it at an equivalent of around 20 to 30 points.

Your have to decide what’s best for you.

Once that’s done then all I have to is click “start” and let the bot do the rest.
The Grey Horse Bot can automatically download selections based on your own criteria or using the special links that are often given to our members when we start a new test.

The link contains a live feed that the bot checks every so often and if it finds new selections it automatically adds them ready to monitor.

There is a link in the member’s area for the test from last week’s article.

I love automation and it doesn’t get any better than this.

But best of all I no longer have to worry about missing races or stopping when I should, it is all done automatically.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm


The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:00 Bangor Clondaw Kaempfer – eachway bet 15/2 Bet Victor

Racing Consultants Free Tips

Today we are able to share a bit of the expertise available to Betting Insiders club members.

The analysis and selections come from David Massey and Rory Delargey.

Two guys that you will no doubt of heard of if you listen to any of the bookmaker/timeform radio channels.

Below you will find their selections for today's racing along with their reasoning and analysis for each bet.

This information is posted in the Betting Insiders Club members only forum where Rory and David are currently providing daily analysis and selections to all Betting Insiders members.

Today’s Selections:

1pt e/w Silver Roque 4.20 Perth @ 11-1 (general)
0.5 pts e/w Apache Glory 4.00 Beverley @ 12-1 (general)
0.5 pts e/w double

Silver Roque looks a very fair price for what, at first glance, looks quite an open handicap at Perth but a few of these have been disappointing this year and one or two are probably running at the wrong trip too. The key to Silver Roque is simple – he goes particularly well after a break, with his last three wins all coming after breaks of 4 months or more. His last win, over Tahiti Pearl, may only have been at Sedgefield but he was hugely impressive, having the race won a long way out, and travelling strongly throughout. Add in the recent rain that has fallen at the track and the fact his trainer is back amongst the winners and the morning price looks a decent one.

Apache Glory is more speculative but there are good reasons for thinking he’s overpriced. Genius Boy will go off favourite here, and whilst it would be wrong to say he’s a false favourite as he was punted off the boards for his debut at Wolverhampton and raced throughout like he knew his job, and clearly there will be more to come, but the form as it stands is ordinary and Beverley is very much a specialist track. But his presence will mean others go off overpriced (Maybeme was also looked at as a possible e/w selection too, he could go off a 33s chance if the favourite gets punted in again) but at the morning prices Apache Glory is the one that makes the most appeal.

Winner of this race last year, this has clearly been the target again, and although he is 4lb higher than his victory last year he has also run well here in a better race from 4lb higher than this mark, so he’s handicapped to win again.

A Star is Born

Kieran Ward

As promised yesterday, today we have a micro system.

This one is from our newest recruit to the editorial team at DP and that is Kieran Ward from makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

I'll pass you onto Kieran to outline the angle he's found and at the end I'll list the runners for today that qualify.


I’m not normally keen on 7lb claimers. Conditional jockeys in  general lack the experience, strength and racing nous to take full advantage of their claim and that’s especially true of 7lbers (Sometimes I think most would need something  like 21lbs to offset their early inadequacies).

However, once in a while, a natural emerges fully formed and we can ride the coat tails of a young jockey who is headed right to the top.

More excitingly, decent profits can be made if we spot them ahead of the crowd.

Real value can be found in being one step ahead of the masses.

I don’t have the figures to hand but a lot of money was made by those sharp eyed enough to spot the young AP McCoy -the right jockey can make an awful lot of use of a 7lb claim when getting on the right horses.

I think I’ve spotted one such jockey.

I don’t know a great deal about Brendan Powell Jr, above and beyond the fact that he is the son of ace trainer and Grand National winning jockey Brendan Powell Sr (funnily enough).

He only started riding this year and is currently a dual purpose jock, riding under both codes. Looking at him, he’s a bit big to be riding on the flat and I think that avenue will close off to him as he fills out (he’s only 16 or 17 I think).

His record on the flat and all weather is poor and we would do well to pass over him as a punting proposition in that field.

Over the sticks things become more interesting.

As of 30-11-11 he has had 39 rides as a National Hunt Jockey and booted home 9 winners for a level stakes profit at SP of 3.7 points.

Reasonable enough I would say (particularly as profits could have been increased by taking morning prices or using Betfair).

But if we dig a little deeper into the bare figures, we can see that his best performances have come in hurdle races, producing the following numbers:

Runners

Wins

P/L at ISP

Win Strike Rate %

Place Strike Rate %

25

8

12.70pts

32.00%

44.00%

Very decent figures indeed for an inexperienced jockey – he’s clearly making full use of his claim.

When you look at his hurdle figures for the last 14 days you could be forgiven for thinking we were looking at the figures of one of the top jockeys in the country during a purple patch:

Runners

Wins

P/L at ISP

Win Strike Rate %

Place Strike Rate %

15

8

22.70 points

53.33%

66.67%

Very, very impressive and indicative (to me at least) that he is being recognised by trainers as more than value for his claim and worthy of being put atop some of their better charges.

We are only working with a small set of results here so we can’t go overboard but that’s the nature of trying to get ahead of the crowd. We have to take some things on trust and pay to find out -but I believe the sky’s the limit.

Advice- Take a long hard look at any hurdler Brendan Powell climbs aboard in the coming weeks – particularly while he still has that 7lb pull on the big boys.


Brendan has one ride today and its in a Hurdle and we will make it today's selection.

Today's Tip

Fontwell 3.40 Southway Star

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