Tag Archives: National Hunt races

Lay the Frogs

Don't you just love it when you spend hours researching a system looking into an angle that you think will highlight some winners all for nothing.

Or worse still when you research a system and you think you've found a micro system with a little pocket of profit and you set it up in Horse Race Base to notify you of future runners and a year later it's had just seven qualifying bets and all seven have lost.

That's the results from a system I created last January and I've been waiting for some live results to prove it works before I write about it.

It looks like that day will never come 🙁

Whats worse still is that Derek Miller has just released a laying system that uses a similar angle to make big profits from laying.

It's not the same angle I was looking at, I was looking at French bred horses on one particular all weather course.

Derek's system is selecting French breds in National Hunt races, but it does serve to remind me that there are profits in following horses that are bred for different environments and that I knew that but I didn't find the profit.

And Derek has.

The good news, for you, is that the system is free.

You can get it here http://dailypunt.com/freelayingsystem

Today's selection

17:10 Wolverhampton Apparatchika – win bet – Evens Boylesports

Henderson Debutants System

We have a fellow Daily Punt reader to thank for today's micro system.

Derek posted the following micro system in the comments yesterday.

Here's what Derek said…

I use a micro system for Henderson and it’s based on debutants having first run under UK rules. It is based mainly on NH flat and hurdles. I know you use horseracebase so I’ve just cut and pasted my rules.

Here are the rules in plain English as opposed to HRBish!

Henderson Debutants System

National Hunt races.

Run at one of these courses: Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, Stratford, Towcester, Uttoxeter, Wincanton

Race Distance is 2m6f or less

Horse is have it's first run and is trained by Nicky Henderson.

It's price is between Evens and 16/1.

It is 6 years old or younger.

And we only bet in the main season between October to March inclusive.

Heres the overall performance since 2003.

Henderson Debutants System

And here's the breakdown by year

 

Henderson Debutants Yearly Breakdown

Back to Derek…

You will see that it has performed steadily year after year since 2003.

Henderson repeats the same training routine year after year and this has allowed me to have the above and two other micro systems (handicap hurdles and mares) on the man from severn barrows.

Regards

Derek

Excellent, thanks Derek 🙂

Today's Selection

2.10 Chepstow Jumps Road – win bet – 5/1 Bet 365

Up In Class System

Today's article is a bit last minute because the regular Wednesday post has been delayed, so apologies if it lacks a little polish.

I've been looking back through my National Hunt systems to see what we can use this year and I've been experimenting with the notion of horses winning when they move up in class.

Basically I've taken a system that had a bad year and played about with it to see who did profit from the angle in question.

I've not finished with it yet and don't know if this is a goer but here's what I've got so far.

We're looking at Beginner and Novice National Hunt races and specifically at 4 and 5 year olds moving up in class.

And at the moment I am drilling down to find which trainers are profitable with these horses.

Here's the list of trainers I have that have profited…

Crook, A
Dickin, R
Egerton, C R
Ferguson, J P
Henderson, N J
Johnson, J Howard
Keane, D P
King, N B
Lavelle, Miss E C
Llewellyn, Carl
McCain, D
Walton, Mrs K
West, Miss Sheena
Williams, Miss Venetia

Some well known and some not so much.

The 2013 results for horses sent out by these trainers in beginner type races is as follows…

Runs = 97
Wins = 19
Strike Rate = 20%
Profit at iSP = 68.58
ROI at iSP = 70.7%

In 2014 so far it's…

Runs = 42
Wins = 9
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit at iSP = 76.72
ROI at iSP = 182.67%

I don't know if I'm onto something with this or am just reporting something that happened in the past, but I'll keep working at it and see what selections this initial idea throws up.

Got an idea to improve it? Post it in the comments 😉

Today's Selection

5.35 Wetherby Mr Moonshine – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet 365

More Perth Profits?

Our Gordon Elliott approach paid off again yesterday with two winners at 7/1 and 2/1 from 7 runners for a 4 point profit for a 57% return on the days investment.

Gordon Elliott has another 7 runners today, there are a couple of interesting factors that might effect your decision to bet.

First off Tico ran yesterday, started favourite and finished 23 lengths last.

The high level stats for all horses running in National Hunt races one day after their last race is 13% strike rate from 583 that have tried in the last 10 years.

The strike rate for Gordon Elliott trained runners that have run after one day is 23%.

The strike rate for horses that ran one day ago in a hurdle and today run in a chase is 20% with a 62% ROI.

Gordon Elliott has done this twice and one of those runners won.

Before I looked at the stats I was thinking I would drop Tico from my days bets, but having checked the numbers I think I'll leave him in.

The other runner that stands out is Crown Theatre at 40/1.

Gordon Elliott has had 18 runners at Perth that started at 22/1 or bigger, none have won!

Here is the full list of runners, so let's see if we can build on yesterdays profits…

14:45:00 Perth 2 Landau (IRE) – 11/2 Bet Victor
15:20:00 Perth 1 I C Gold (IRE) – 4/1 Bet Victor
15:20:00 Perth 3 Pumped Up Kicks (IRE) – 2/1 Sky Bet
15:55:00 Perth 3 Crown Theatre (IRE) – 40/1 Bet 365
17:00:00 Perth 2 Goal (IRE) – 4/1 Skybet
17:30:00 Perth 2 Tico (IRE) – 4/1 Sky Bet
18:00:00 Perth 4 Iffjack (IRE) – 8/1 Bet Victor

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close