Tag Archives: National Hunt racing

Ok as promised yesterday, today I'm looking at quick winning returners in National Hunt races.

The head line figures for horses that have run and won within the last 5 days in National Hunt races across the UK and Ireland are…

Strike rate = 35%

Return on Investment = 12%

So the first thing to note is that over the long term there is a profit from these runners.

So let's dig in a bit and see what we can find.

The first thing I note is that 10 out of the last 11 years have shown a profit.

Unfortunately the year that lost was 2013, so that's not so encouraging.

So we started this journey looking at the difference between UK and Irish racing so lets see how they compare.

	UK	Ireland
Runs	936	377
Wins	353	115
Strike Rate	38%	31%
Profit iSP	+ 123.75	+ 36.28
ROI %	+ 13.22 %	+ 9.62 %

This time around it looks like we should focus on UK racing.

So, where to next. Let's start with age and sex, which might knock out some losers.

Female horses have a lower strike rate (32%) and produce a loss, so we'll drop them.

Dropping females brings 2013 up into a small profit.

With age, I would expect that older horses may make a loss, and they do.

But also as we are looking at National Hunt racing maybe very young horses should be excluded also.

Looking at the stats, the profit is in horses between 5 years old and 11 years old.

That makes sense to me so I'll restrict our search to horses in that range.

As you no doubt know, when researching systems it's easy to add any rule that makes your system look profitable.

But I think we are safe here because we have started with an initial idea, horses that won within the last 5 days running in a National Hunt race.

We've excluded female horses which is a straightforward removal that applies to lots of systems. And we've restricted our age range to drop out the very old, and past it, and the very young and immature.

Where to next?

I'm thinking there is probably a difference between Hurdle, Chase and NH Flat races.

In the last 11 years there are only 2 qualifying runs in NH Flat races, so we'll drop those.

The difference between hurdle races and chases is quite stark.

The strike rates are very similar but the profit is much greater in the Chases!

We are now getting down to quite a small sub set and will be down to only about 40 bets per year, but such is the way these days with a collection of micro systems being the only real way to win for system followers.

The end result for

Uk, National Hunt Chase runners that have won within the last 5 days and are male aged between 5 & 11 are…

Runs	340
Wins	136
Strike Rate	40%
Profit iSP	+ 131.12
ROI %	+ 38.56 %

 

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

14:00 Lingfield – Global Explorer – Win Bet 3/1 Bet Victor