Tag Archives: National Hunt racing

Headgear Racing System

So last week I told you about an article over at Geegeez that put forward the idea of backing Paul Nichols runners who wear headgear for the first time.

So today I have done some research and investigated all the trainers who have been profitable in the past with their runners who were wearing headgear for the first time.

I'm looking at National Hunt only and am looking at horses who are wearing cheekpieces, blinkers or a hood for the first time.

Along the way I discovered a system with a 10,000% ROI!

Ok, I spotted a trainer who in 2014 only had one runner (Viking Rebel) who wore headgear for the first time and that runner won at 100/1.

Although that would make any system look like a winner I have not included it in my system below.

What I have got is a long list of trainers who had at least 10 runners wearing headgear for the first time from January 1st 2013 through to December 31st 2014 and who made a good profit at iSP with those runners.

Runs = 767
Wins = 127
Strike Rate = 16.56%
Profit at industry SP = 405.23
ROI = 52.83%

All the research was done on the data from 2013 and 2014 and if I run that system on 2015 so far it has already made 42 points profit in 2015.

But, here's the thing!

You could've backed every horse that wore headgear for the first time so far this year and made a profit.

I'm going to monitor this for a while and share any bets that come up on this page and then decide what to do with it once we have some live results.

There's no National Hunt racing today.

Today's Selection

3:10 Wolverhampton – Don't Be – win bet – 10/11 Paddy Power

Free National Hunt To Follow List

Today we have a freebie for you that will hopefully make some serious profit this National Hunt season.

It comes from a guy called Ben Aitken that you have probably heard of.

Ben takes an alternative approach to winner finding, the main difference is that he uses the Dosage Index to analyse National Hunt runners.

Here's what Wikipedia say about the Dosage Index…

The Dosage Index is a mathematical figure used by breeders of Thoroughbred race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree.

The Dosage Index is commonly used to assess horses running on the flat, but Ben is the only person I know that also uses it for National Hunt racing.

The upshot of that alternative approach is that he finds a lot of big priced winners.

But back to the freebies.

Ben is currently giving away a number of FREE racing guides, the most interesting for me is his ‘20 To Follow’ for the season.

Now this isn’t your standard list. Why? Because Ben has deliberately left out any Mullins, Henderson and Nicholls horses! Indeed there are no Hobbs, McCain or King horses on the list either!

That instantly makes the list of interest for me.

What’s more he has also managed to secure some exclusive trainer quotes for a couple of the horses on his list, adding even more value to this excellent FREE guide.

Grab your own copy of the NTF ‘Alternative 20 To Follow’

Today's Selection

A shortage of racing today so we are going odds on at Sedgefield

2.10 Sedgefield Laigle Royal – win bet

Quick Returns National Hunt Profits

Ok as promised yesterday, today I'm looking at quick winning returners in National Hunt races.

The head line figures for horses that have run and won within the last 5 days in National Hunt races across the UK and Ireland are…

Strike rate = 35%

Return on Investment = 12%

So the first thing to note is that over the long term there is a profit from these runners.

So let's dig in a bit and see what we can find.

The first thing I note is that 10 out of the last 11 years have shown a profit.

Unfortunately the year that lost was 2013, so that's not so encouraging.

So we started this journey looking at the difference between UK and Irish racing so lets see how they compare.

UK Ireland
Runs  936  377
Wins  353  115
Strike Rate  38%  31%
Profit iSP  + 123.75  + 36.28
ROI %  + 13.22 %  + 9.62 %

This time around it looks like we should focus on UK racing.

So, where to next. Let's start with age and sex, which might knock out some losers.

Female horses have a lower strike rate (32%) and produce a loss, so we'll drop them.

Dropping females brings 2013 up into a small profit.

With age, I would expect that older horses may make a loss, and they do.

But also as we are looking at National Hunt racing maybe very young horses should be excluded also.

Looking at the stats, the profit is in horses between 5 years old and 11 years old.

That makes sense to me so I'll restrict our search to horses in that range.

As you no doubt know, when researching systems it's easy to add any rule that makes your system look profitable.

But I think we are safe here because we have started with an initial idea, horses that won within the last 5 days running in a National Hunt race.

We've excluded female horses which is a straightforward removal that applies to lots of systems. And we've restricted our age range to drop out the very old, and past it, and the very young and immature.

Where to next?

I'm thinking there is probably a difference between Hurdle, Chase and NH Flat races.

In the last 11 years there are only 2 qualifying runs in NH Flat races, so we'll drop those.

The difference between hurdle races and chases is quite stark.

The strike rates are very similar but the profit is much greater in the Chases!

We are now getting down to quite a small sub set and will be down to only about 40 bets per year, but such is the way these days with a collection of micro systems being the only real way to win for system followers.

The end result for

Uk, National Hunt Chase runners that have won within the last 5 days and are male aged between 5 & 11 are…

Runs  340
Wins  136
Strike Rate  40%
Profit iSP  + 131.12
ROI %  + 38.56 %

 

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

14:00 Lingfield – Global Explorer – Win Bet 3/1 Bet Victor

Horse Racing Profits – Switching Stables

The latest issue of the Betting Insiders report landed on my doormat yesterday and one article caught my eye straight away.

Dave Renham has written an article which looks at how we can make some horse racing profits from horses that are switching stables.

The article is looking at UK National Hunt racing.

The first stat that caught my eye was for horses having their first run for a new trainer in a handicap.

Where the horse meets those conditions and is also favourite or joint favourite they win 32% of the time and make an 11% return on investment at iSP.

But the big returns come from following trainers who have proven themselves profitable with new recruits running in handicaps.

The article lists 22 trainers that have a strike rate of over 14.5% with these runners and some of the returns are huge.

The Highlight is Mrs Lawney Hill with a 204% return on investment at iSP.

So watch out for horses having their first run for Mrs Lawney Hill in Handicaps, I'm guessing that return can be increased dramatically by betting at Betfair SP.

The full list of 22 trainers can be found in this months Betting School Insiders Members Report. (http://bettinginsiders.com

Lay Debutants

14:30:00 York 13 Higher Court (USA)
15:40:00 York 1 Captain Joe
16:50:00 York 1 Green Light
16:50:00 York 3 Scoppio Del Carro
17:10:00 Newton Abbot 3 Champagne At Tara
17:30:00 Carlisle 3 Golden Calf (IRE)
17:40:00 Wolverhampton 2 Febrayer Star (IRE)
17:40:00 Wolverhampton 8 Molly Ahoy
18:20:00 Dundalk 7 Magnolia Beach (IRE)
18:20:00 Dundalk 9 Oighear Fuar (IRE)
18:20:00 Dundalk 10 Pit Stop (IRE)

Today's back selection is courtesy of the Winning Information Network, if you sign up with these guys they will send you profitable tips everyday.

Click Here to register for free tips = http://www.winninginformationnetwork.com/

Today's Selection

16:15 York Van Percy – win bet – 5/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

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