Tag Archives: Norway Cross

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

DIY Punting

DIY PuntingToday I've been looking for inspiration in a book called DIY Punting.

I first read this back in 2010 and every now and then I pick it up when I'm looking for ideas.

Two things caught my eye this time.

One was the chapter on courses and specifically how some courses have unique difficulties for runners. This caused me to bring up course winner stats at Horse Race Base to see if any particular track was profitable for previous course winners.

Aintree was the only one that stood out with a small profit.

Later in the book I was reading about jockeys. The author Terry Burke talks about the skill needed to read a race and about horsemanship etc.

This made me think that if some courses are particularly difficult then a jockey with course wins must be important also.

Of course for the big tracks most jockeys will have some course wins, but I punched in a request for horses with at least one course win and jockeys with at least 11 course wins.

Horse and Jockey Course Winners

These are the tracks that show a profit. I don't think it's a system, yet, but is a line of enquiry worth pursuing.

There is racing at Yarmouth today and the following runners meet the criteria.

2.40 Caramelita*, Oh So Spicy, Ray of Joy
3.10 Semayyel
3.45 Daghash*, Tuscania*
4.20 Barwick
5.25 Kelvingrove*

If I add a rule that the horse must have won on the going then those with an * no longer qualify.

If you have some thoughts as to where I should go next with this let me know in the comments.

Lay Debutants

These are now showing a loss after a bad day yesterday, I will be sticking with them but may move to a weekly summary of the results until I have a big file of live results to share.

14:10:00 Yarmouth 6 Munaaser
14:25:00 Listowel 6 Screenshot (IRE)
14:25:00 Listowel 7 Show Your Face (IRE)
14:25:00 Listowel 8 Tar Isteach (IRE)
14:30:00 Beverley 6 Marquesa Naranja (IRE)
14:30:00 Beverley 10 Red Wifey (IRE)
15:00:00 Beverley 11 Tinchy Ryder
17:05:00 Sandown 7 Mrs Micawber
17:05:00 Sandown 8 Norway Cross
19:45:00 Kempton 1 Be My Icon
19:45:00 Kempton 5 Jordan Princess
19:45:00 Kempton 6 Nibbling (IRE)
19:45:00 Kempton 12 Stereo Love (FR)
19:45:00 Kempton 13 Tioga Pass

Today's Selection

Yarmouth 4.20 Barwick – eachway bet – 9/2 Bet Victor, Sky Bet

47 Points Profit

Before I talk some more about the lay system we are developing I just want to update on the Mystery Horse Bot.

We've had a lot of people ask about it since it had a losing run that ran into the beginning of August.

However in the second half of August it made 50 points profit to move ahead from the starting point.

The ups and downs of profit trends is what knocks out a lot of would be successful gamblers, but almost any method will have drawdowns and at the beginning they are likely to drop down below your starting point.

The position now since we first opened up places on the bot is + 47.13 points.

If you havent tried the bot before you can still trial it for a month at £20.

http://mysteryhorsebot.com

Debutant Lays

We've had a few comments and emails now about the huge prices of the debutants that we are laying, so I just want to clarify how I intend to use these.

I have layed all the selections since Friday at Betfair SP.

With Betfair SP you make your selection and then enter how much money you are prepared to risk.

This then is your maximum loss on that runner, and if you lay multiple runners in a race at the same liability then that is the maximum liability on the race.

So there is no need to have a large bank to try this out.

The minimum liability allowed by Betfair is £10, so that is your risk on the race whether the selection starts at 3.00 or 300.0.

Of course the returns betting this way reflect the liability, but it does allow us to lay big priced horses and build our bank gradually.

So far the profit from laying the selections to the minimum liability over the last 3 days is £6.34 after commission.

Of course if this profits over the long term then I will be happy to risk much higher liability and the profits will be more worthwhile.

Here are today's lays…

16:00:00 Brighton 6 Norway Cross
16:45:00 Roscommon 1 Air Wolf (IRE)
16:45:00 Roscommon 4 Bribe The Bouncer (IRE)
16:45:00 Roscommon 13 Pretty Angel (IRE)

Today's Selection

2.10:00 Hamilton Les Gar Gan – win bet – 13/8 Paddy Power, Bet victor, Boylesports

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