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John Gibby – Well Handicapped Horses

Today we have the first part of an interview with John Gibby the author of Well Handicapped Horses

We also have details of two of John's well handicapped horses running today.

This interview was conducted by Steve Carter of the Betting School Insiders Club.


INTERVIEW WITH JON GIBBY

When did you first get interested in horse racing and betting?

Whilst living in Hong Kong between 1979/1980. My father and two elder brothers were regular visitors to the two racecourses (Sha Tin and Happy Valley) and I remember being impressed on the couple of occasions that they returned home and emptied some quite large amounts of money onto the dining-room table!

My first visit to a racetrack came a few years later when I was nineteen. That was when I came to believe that there was money to be made from betting on horses.

Although I lost what little money I had that day, by betting on horses that I liked the look of in the paddock, my brothers had been studying the form and they proceeded to go through the card.

The last winner (if memory serves me correctly) was a horse called Taskforce Victory which landed them a six horse accumulator and the Placepot and combined winnings of over £2000.

It was soon after that that I began to take a keen interest in the contents of the Sporting Life paper that they regularly bought and to start listening to what they had to say about form analysis!

Did your betting activities bring instant success or did it take a while to learn the ropes?

There was certainly no instant success. It took years before I began to show regular profits.

Both myself and my brothers spent years trying to develop those illusive winning systems but most of them were unceremoniously binned after the first inevitable losing run. I had a few decent successes with Lucky 15 bets which helped to recoup some of my losses but overall, although I didn’t keep records of every bet, I was certainly in deficit to the bookies.

The great majority of punters will spend years losing money whilst learning the trade and the great majority will continue to lose money because they can’t or don’t want to learn from their experience!

Were there any early influences that shaped your approach to successful betting?

Yes, without a doubt the biggest influence was Nick Mordin’s ground breaking book Betting for a Living.

Nick’s work was outstanding, primarily because it was such a huge step up on previous British racing literature. It was this book that showed me how to work out my own draw statistics and also introduced me to pace analysis. More importantly, it also helped me to discover that there were numerous excellent American books waiting to be read and works by authors such as Andy Beyer, Tom Ainslie, William Quirin and Tom Brohammer completely transformed my understanding of form.

How would you best sum up your own style of betting?

Periodic and selective. I don’t bet professionally and I am still in the same full-time occupation that I joined twenty-five years ago. For me, betting has been, and always will be, a hobby that I aim to make a few thousand pounds out of each year, whether that be by writing books or by betting. Because of my job (which involves shift work) I don’t have the time or the energy to commit to the necessary amount of form study over long periods of time.

I tend to give it maximum effort from April through to July, betting exclusively on the Flat and then I will have just an occasional dabble during the rest of the year.

I also bet selectively. I identify horses that I believe to be well-handicapped (and therefore probable future winners) and I keep a list of them to follow. Most of them are lightly raced three-year-olds which I look to back in the first half of the season (whilst they remain well-handicapped).

Most of my analysis is done when looking at the results pages published in the Weekender every Wednesday. I scour the results looking for horses that have run well despite being disadvantaged by the various biases that are present to varying degrees in each and every race. I am also looking out for horses that have clocked fast times. For a fuller explanation of the methodology, readers will have to buy my latest book!

What led you to writing your first book “Betting on Flat Handicaps?”

I used to subscribe to the weekly publication Raceform Update and I particularly enjoyed reading the letters and systems submitted by readers to the Sports Forum page. About sixteen years ago I began sending in my own letters.

They seemed to be well received in the main and because I was making good profits at the time from the methodology I was using I decided to take it a step further and write a book. I sent in a couple of chapters to Raceform with an explanation of what would be in the remainder of the book and to my surprise they said ‘yes’!

How was your own P&L affected by the disclosure of the methods described in the book?

It is difficult to know. The method I used then was built around my knowledge of draw bias, which for a good few years gave me a significant edge over the majority of other punters.

That began to diminish as more and more people became aware of the power of the draw and the odds about the well-drawn runners started to tumble. Perhaps my book contributed to that to some extent, but I think that Graham Wheldon’s books about the draw, which were published around that time, were more influential in changing people’s perceptions.

More generally, I would say that it is a truism that winning methods normally have a limited lifetime because inevitably other people will catch on to them and they eventually become over bet as a consequence.

The game keeps slowly changing and you have to keep adapting your methods in an attempt to stay one step ahead of other punters. There is of course no guarantee that you can keep successfully doing that and that is why I have always been reluctant to risk packing up the day job in favour of full-time punting.

In your opinion where does the average every day punter go wrong given that the statistics generally quote that 98% make a loss?

They bet in too many races and on the wrong type of horse. Most people would improve their chance of success if they became a lot more selective and put more money on fewer bets. Another truism in my view is that you cannot construct good bets every time you open the Racing Post, but instead you have to wait for them to come along.

I am reminded of this most years during Royal Ascot week and the Cheltenham Festival. I meet up with one of my brothers and we treat the weeks as a bit of fun and try to find the winner of every race. More often than not we fail dismally!

In part two tomorrow John talks about his current methods for finding winners.

There are two of John's well handicapped horses running today…


Today's Selections courtesy of Well Handicapped Horses

4.00pm Nottingham – Future Security

Related to five winners and cost 160,000gns as a yearling. He was a relatively late foal (April 8) and will make a better 3yo once he matures and based on his 2yo form he gave the impression that he might make into Listed class.

This season he won a class 4 3yo handicap at Bath in early August and finished down the field next time out in the very hot class 2 Melrose Stakes at York. Last time out having been close up he weakened out of it on his first run on firm going and has been dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap. The forecast going today is good to soft and he drops back to a trip more in line with his two wins to date which were over 9f and 10f. Has proven form in the conditions and the ease in class may be able to bring out a return to form for this lightly raced colt should he take his chance.

13/2 Bet365 – win bet

8.30pm Kempton – Eraada

Related to no less than 12 winners including the 118 rated Almutawake so she has a lot to live up to. Being by Medician she is probably going to be suited by a sound surface. She won on her final start as a 2yo in a maiden at Catterick over 7f and did well from a poor draw. Hopefully she will get better with age and a rating of 73 looks manageable.

So far this season two runs have not shown much and she now runs off a mark of 69. Interestingly she is upped in trip to 11f for the first time having not into either of her starts over 7f and 8f as a 3yo and the trainer certainly knows the time of day when it comes to trip. This is her easiest assignment and given she stays then may have a lively chance.

14/1 Bet365 – each way bet

Premier League Football Tips

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

Premier League Preview

This Sunday the first silverware of the season is decided as Sunderland take on the might of Manchester City in the Capital One Cup Final at New Wembley. Of course all the smart money will be on a convincing win for City but you have to keep in mind that Gus Poyet has really got his team fired up for the cup competitions this season and perhaps just maybe there might be a surprise on the cards.

Either way it is a one off match and as a neutral it’s always fun to watch a major match at the home of football.

Back in the Premier League the other clubs in the top four Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool all face tricky away ties.

Chelsea travel the short distance to local rivals Fulham. Although they may be poles apart in terms of their respective spending power these matches always have an extra spicy flavour to them and new Fulham boss Felix Magath will be hoping to call on all his experience and outfox Jose Mourinho.

In their last outing against West Brom the Cottagers looked good value for a narrow win before the Baggies equalised and Magath will be expecting his side to at least put up a good fight even if they do succumb to an expected loss.

With his side languishing at the foot of the table he really does need to get points on the board as soon as possible but I fear it will be too much to ask of his side this weekend. I expect a clear Chelsea win by 2 or more goals.

Arsene Wenger takes his gunners up to the Potteries in what has proved in previous years to be a very difficult place for him to get any points. But with Tony Pulis no longer in charge of Stoke it could just be that he has put that hoodoo to bed now and they will face an easier task.

As for Stoke they are very much in the middle of the relegation dogfight and sit just three points clear of safety. Another loss with good results for the clubs around them could see them fall inexorably into the Championship with a whimper in the coming months.

The Stoke of old would fall back onto their strengths – the long throws, combative midfield dominance and sheer guts but I’m not so sure that this Stoke side possess that. Just one win in their last ten league games tells a story. I expect the Gunners to continue their fine form against the lower sides in the league and dispatch them quietly and efficiently by the odd goal in 3.

Liverpool have the advantage of playing in the early evening match on Saturday and will know how their main rivals have fared. They face a tricky but manageable trip to the south coast as they take on Southampton. Following on from their superb start to the season the Saints have faltered as they settled comfortably into mid table. With the dual strike partnership of Suarez and Sturridge on fire at the moment I would expect the Reds to march on once more and snatch all three points.

At the other end of the table just 7 points separates nine clubs from a place in the relegation zone.

This weekend we see a couple of big six point matches as Aston Villa play Norwich and Swansea play Crystal Palace.

With Villa and Norwich both on 28 points and just four points from 18th spot this should be a really keenly fought game. Both clubs will know that they have the opportunity to propel themselves into mid table with one good result.

They will only need to glance up and take a look at West Ham to see how a short run of good form can transform their season for a little motivation. If they are unable to inspire a little enthusiasm into their game then they could be dragged down at a rate of knots into the bottom three. I suspect that this match has a draw written all over it or perhaps a narrow win but to be honest it’s just too close to call.

Swansea will play a rejuvenated Crystal Palace side led by the experienced Tony Pulis. This is a man who has held the reins at Stoke City for a long time and faced many a relegation struggle. He knows how to get his sides scrapping for every point on offer and I wouldn’t bet against him firing his side up so much that they sneak a win in deepest Wales this weekend.

Palace have won three of their last five games with two losses coming against Arsenal and Manchester United. On a playing field which is reasonably even, Palace have proven time and again that they can do the business. I expect them to snatch all three points and continue their fight for Premier League survival.

Double Tip this weekend

It’s an obvious one I know but why not cash in as the two top clubs continue their march on to the Champions League. Both Chelsea and Arsenal are odds on favourites to win at 4/9 and 4/6 respectively for a reason and should cruise to victory this Saturday. If you fancy a cheeky punt on a longer shot I’d consider Crystal Palace to win at Swansea at 4/1.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Selections

6.05 Wolverhampton Great Demeanour – eachway bet – 33/1 Bet Victor
8.35 Wolverhampton Acting Talent – Win Bet – 5/2 Will Hill

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