O’Brien Archives • Daily Punt

Long Distance Jockeys

Posted on November 25, 2014 by Dave French • 3 Comments

I've just been reading an article by Josh Wright where he shares a jockey angle to profit from.

Basically he's uncovered three jockeys that do exceptionally well in races of 3 miles and longer.

…all three are clearly superb judges of pace, either winding up their mounts from the front or pouncing at the right time to take the prize. They also give their horses confidence at their fences as well as getting the firepower to go to war with.

The three jockeys are James Reveley, Paul Moloney and Paddy Brennan.

James Reveley

Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
September-April Inclusive
Class 2,3,4,5
20/1 or below
Results (2010-) :-

James Reveley has had a consistent record for some time in these types of races and is a superb horseman as well as a great judge of pace. His mounts should always be kept onside during main National Hunt season over these marathon trips.

Paul Moloney
Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
November-April inclusive
Class 1,2,3,4
20/1 or under
Results (2010-):-

Paul Moloney is renowned for waiting out the back on his mounts and timing his challenge perfectly. To perform 77% above market expectations says everything about his ability to win on horses that the market has not given a chance to. His rides in long distance handicap chases are always worth a second look.

Paddy Brennan

Rules:-
Handicap Chases, 3 miles to 3 miles 4 furlong inclusive.
Class 3,4,5
12/1 or under
Results (2010-) :-

Paddy Brennan is a superb rider over 3miles-3m4f in the lower classes of racing. He is best known in recent years for his association with Tom George, however he also gets plenty of rides for Fergal O’Brien and the odd ride for other trainers. Definitely a rider who gives confidence to his mounts and who judges pace superbly. He is still underestimated by the market.

These 3 have won nearly 400 points to BFSP since the beginning of 2010 and they are showing no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Read the original article and others at http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/

Today's Selection

12:10:00 Southwell Company Secretary – win bet 15/8 Bet 365

Filed Under: Systems
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Norfolk Stakes Tip

Posted on June 19, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders hit the bar with yesterdays selection only managing to finish second.

He's back today with his assessment of the Norfolk Stakes.

You can get Nick's review and selections for the whole card at the Betting School Insiders Club – http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

2.30pm Norfolk Stakes

Only 9 go to post in this 5f Group 2 sprint and Aiden O’Brien’s The Great War looks the one to beat.

He is 2 from 2 and yet to come off the bridle and any improvement for the quicker ground and he will probably takes this. However, it’s always worth assessing the other runners even with such a strong favourite.

Mukhmal is also 2 from 2, the latter of those wins from a wide draw at Chester and that takes some doing. Baitha Alga is a serious prospect and is dropped in trip here having form figures of 211 all over 6f.

USA raider To Be Determined could be anything but he won’t have been brought all the way over here to simply make up the numbers. Racing Post top speed figures put The Great War and Mukhmal ahead of the other runners and they also top the Racing Post ratings at 111 and 112 respectively.

If you fancy short price favourite The Great War (and a lot of racing pundits do) then take the 11/10 with William Hill and their insurance for second place. I think this might be closer than people think and @6/1 I rate Mukhmal as a lively each-way alternative to the favourite.

Filed Under: Tips
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Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

Posted on June 18, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

As promised we have another Royal Ascot Selection from Nick Hardman today.

Yesterday the free tips we posted finished 1st at even money and 3rd at 12/1, so hopefully you had a few pennies on those. Nick went on to make 4.4 points across the whole card.

If you want all of Nick's selections today you can find them in the Betting School Insiders Club and if you're not already a member you can join here.

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Today the first race is a tougher challenge…

2.30pm Jersey Stakes

From a betting perspective, Day 2 could not get off to a trickier start than a 7f race of 23 runners. As always, cases can be made for many so I will be using cautionary stakes on this one for sure.

At the head of the market are French Guineas 4th Muwaary @11/2 and Irish Guineas 3rd Mustajeeb @13/2.

Both will go close if they improve on those runs. Of the two I prefer Muwaary solely because John Gosden’s horses are running so well and he is the preference of jockey Paul Hanagan.

Aiden O’Brien has won the last two renewals and has three entered here, but they all need to improve on what they have shown this year to get involved.

However, before writing them off it is worth noting that Ishvana won this for O’Brien @20/1 in 2012 when largely unfancied.

Big Time @16/1 for John Joseph Murphy is interesting on his juvenile form (2nd in a Group 2 and 2nd in a Group 1 after winning his maiden).

He made his reappearance in the Irish Guineas and a mile seemed to stretch his stamina.

He has something to find with Mustajeeb on that running but gets 3lb here on that rival and he may well strip fitter for the run.

The horse that beat Big Time in those Group races was Sudirman. He came up short in Group 1 company after that and was a bit disappointing on his reappearance, managing just 4th in a Listed race.

He is another who will improve for the run but all of his winning has been done over 6f. He does rate a big danger if seeing out the trip and 20/1 is tempting.

Elsewhere, Parbold has become expensive to follow since his 2nd in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting last year. His conqueror last time out was That Is The Spirit who made it 3 from 3 in doing so. He has made all in 2 of those wins (and led from halfway in the other) and he might well be taken on for the lead here.

If that happens it would be no surprise to see Parbold reverse the form with Ryan Moore on board.

All in all a fascinating race and really one to watch rather than getting heavily involved in.

If pushed for a tip I would side with Muwaary @11/2 (I wouldn’t want to go any shorter than that) and Big Time at an each-way price of 16/1 (Bet365 go 4 places but offer just 11/1 on Big Time).

Don’t be surprised to see Sudirman @20/1 and Parbold @18/1 outrun their prices.

Filed Under: Tips
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Epsom Derby Tips

Posted on June 7, 2014 by Dave French • 1 Comment

Yesterday Nick got Volume placed in the Oaks, hopefully you got the 20/1 that was available all week because come race time she was backed from 16/1 into 9/1.

Intimal shortened from 10's in the morning to 8/1 and Madame Chiang from 16's into 9/1.

BTW I've just been looking through the various tips I get each morning and I see that Hawkeye have tipped a 50/1 and a 66/1 shot at Epsom this afternoon 😮

Today we'll recap Nick's Derby selections.

Geoffrey Chaucer is second favourite having been backed in from 12s to around 7s (Now 11/1). He was unlucky in the Leopardstown trial and was eased down into 3rd after being squeezed for room.

That was over 1m 2f and he appears versatile ground-wise. I think the money coming for him is significant and I’d be delighted to see Ryan Moore (Ryan rides) on board. The 8/1 with PaddyPower looks a solid bet and with only 3 runs under his belt there is surely more to come.

Of the remainder, Aiden O’Brien’s Orchestra is interesting after overcoming greenness to win the Chester Vase over the exact same trip as the Derby. After just 3 runs he is open to plenty of improvement and he showed that day that a mile and a half is within his reach.

Read the full detail of Nick's assessment here

Epsom Derby Selections

Best value: Geoffrey Chaucer @11/1 PaddyPower
Each-way alternative: Orchestra @16/1 Bet Victor

Filed Under: Tips
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Tag Archives: O’Brien

Long Distance Jockeys

Norfolk Stakes Tip

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

Epsom Derby Tips