Tag Archives: original stake

Recovery staking a TABOO subject?

Today we have our regular Wednesday wisdom from Malcolm Pett, we also have selections for both the Headgear and Tongue Tie systems. Here's Malcolm…

Recovery staking for me has always been a taboo subject.

I have tried it in the past and lost a lot of money doing so.

When you mention recovery staking most people think about putting all your losses on the next bet and that’s the one to be AVOIDED at all costs.

Obviously a conversation about any form of staking needs a disclaimer…

Don’t do it unless you are fully aware of the cost!!!

Also there isn’t a staking system ever thought up that will allow you to make money from a system that doesn’t consistently make profit.

But I use one I actually call “Help recovery”.

It doesn’t usually recover all your losses but it seems to help.

I call it “1234..etc” staking and it works simply by…

“Increasing your stake by your ORGINAL stake every time you lose”

There are a few of things to clarify here…

It’s not doubling your stake (although bet 2 makes it look that way).

It won’t work with systems that don’t have a high strike rate.

The further you go into the sequence the less likely you are to recover your losses.

You need a stop loss setting.

Here is how it works.

1 is your original stake.

If you lose you go to 2 which is your original stake multiplied by 2.

If you lose again you go to 3 which is your original stake multiplied by 3.

And so on.

If you lose on 7 then you would have lost 28 points of your bank.

And you will need a 4/1 winner just to break even.

Which will be unlikely when used with a high strike system that this idea works best with.

So why use a staking system that won’t recover your losses?

With high strike systems you tend to get a mixture of very low prices and odds on prices.

You don’t tend to have long losing runs and so when this system does kick in it can often be for only 1 or 2 selections and the odd higher priced winner just seems to help boost up the profits.

I find with some systems this can be an extra 10 or more points a month.

A couple of tests we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website have results sheets showing how this works.

Click here for an example.


Again please be warned that staking isn’t for everyone and you need to be aware of the risks.

I tend to use 7 as my maximum with this system and realise that if I hit that…

…then it is a month’s (or more) profit down the drain.

Also when using staking select a stake lower than you normal would.

1% or less of your bank.

Thanks
Malcolm

http://greyhorsebot.com

System Selections

With both of these systems I'm still paper trading, but I wanted to post the selections so you can follow along with the live test.

Tongue Tie System

14:55 Chepstow – Nervous Nineties – 150/1 Coral

First Time Headgear

14:35:00 Down Royal – Reality Dose – 16/1 Bet Victor

Today's Selection

14:20:00 Chepstow Champagne Express – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365

Double or Nothing Trading

I've written about Double or Nothing in play trading, or Dobbing,before, but that was over 18 months ago so many readers won't have seen the original article.

The reason I've returned to Dobbing today is that I've just read an interesting article in Betting Insiders that gave a secret but free source of selections for your trades.

So to recap here is the explanation of Dobbing that we shared previously, written by Dave Renham…

Dobbing is a term I came across a few years back – I am not sure where it originates from, but essentially a ‘DOB’ means ‘double or bust’. Essentially if we win, we double our original stake, if we lose we ‘bust’ or lose our stake. I am concentrating on the idea of dobbing by utilizing the in running betting markets. It may be easier to explain by giving you an example:

Let us imagine you back a horse pre race at 8.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay at half the odds for double the stake – so a lay at 4.0 for £20.

If the horse hits 4.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission).

Here is the simple maths behind the two potential winning outcomes – if the horse goes onto win the race you get £70 returned from the ‘back’ part of the bet; you lose £60 on the ‘lay’ part of the bet giving you that £10 profit; if the horse does not go onto win, you lose your £10 stake from the ‘back’ bet, but gain £20 from the lay stake – again giving you a £10 profit. Of course if the lay part of the bet is not matched you will lose your £10.

Dobbing is well worth looking into and if you want to do it yourself basically you want to look for horses that you think will run prominently.

The easier profits probably come from bigger priced selections that you think will be up with the pace and on the National Hunt will jump well.

But you can also bet shorter ones that you think will win or go close.

For example if your fancy is 3/1 before the off then it needs to drop below even money for you to get your profit.

If you follow a tipster and you want to find out if it would be profitable to use their selections as Dobbing selections then you can research this by checking the Betfair results page and comparing the Betfair Starting Price with the In Play Low price.

Each time that the In Play Low is half what the Betfair SP is then that would have been a profitable trade.

If you are available during the day consider this as a way of making profit.

If you're a Betting Insiders member check out page 43 of the February 2014 report.

Bot

As you might expect we had a lot of readers interested in the free bot trial and we have emailed the 10 people that were chosen at random. At the moment only 6 of those have replied, if we don't here back from the other 4 today then we will mail another 4 to take their place.

If you weren't lucky this time we will keep you in mind for future freebies.

Today's Selection

6.40 Kempton My Manekineko – eachway bet – 14/1 Paddy Power

In Play Dobbing

Do you do any Dobbing?

I only heard the term the other day, but the process that it describes I have been thinking about for some time.

There are people making a lot of money from Dobbing and I would like a piece of that action.

So what is it, this is Dave Renham's introduction to a new thread he is writing over at the Betting School Insiders Club.

Dobbing is a term I came across a few years back – I am not sure where it originates from, but essentially a ‘DOB’ means ‘double or bust’. Essentially if we win, we double our original stake, if we lose we ‘bust’ or lose our stake. I am concentrating on the idea of dobbing by utilizing the in running betting markets. It may be easier to explain by giving you an example:

Let us imagine you back a horse pre race at 8.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay at half the odds for double the stake – so a lay at 4.0 for £20.

If the horse hits 4.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission).

Here is the simple maths behind the two potential winning outcomes – if the horse goes onto win the race you get £70 returned from the ‘back’ part of the bet; you lose £60 on the ‘lay’ part of the bet giving you that £10 profit; if the horse does not go onto win, you lose your £10 stake from the ‘back’ bet, but gain £20 from the lay stake – again giving you a £10 profit. Of course if the lay part of the bet is not matched you will lose your £10.

Dave is running a live trial in the Betting School Insiders Club trying to develop a system for finding these horses that shorten in running.

I've been watching a lot of races recently trying to garner ideas for my own Dobbing strategy.

My first idea was to look at horses that are stepping up in distance. I figure these types will be prominent early because they are used to shorter distances and a faster pace.

So I've been looking at these and then looking through their history to see how they traded in play at the longer distance previously.

It's too early to tell whether I'm on to anything but if I make my millions I'll drop you a note before I retire.

If you've got ideas for an in play Dobbing strategy then drop me a note or make a comment.

Today's Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

7.30 Beverley Lucky Money Hills 2/1 with Hills/Skybet  Win Bet

 

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