Tag Archives: photo

20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Today I have a Cheltenham bet from a tipster who made 65 points profit at last years festival and who set up the year for many of his members.

The bet is one leg of a yankee and if you want the other three legs there are details of a very special and cheap offer at the end of this post.

The four bets together will pay £29,248 for a 50 pence each way yankee if he pulls this off!

The Value Backing service is in great form at the moment and is already 33 points up for 2015 with a 118% ROI.

There have been winners this year already at  20/1, 18/1, 12/1 and shorter.

Here's the selection from Value Backing…

UPDATE – See The World will not run in the Champion Bumper 🙁

Champion Bumper Wednesday 11th March – See The World 1pt win @ 20’1 Betfred 

When it come to ante post betting at Cheltenham one of my favourite angles is to look for something out of the ordinary in a previous performance. Way back in 2005 I remember watching the great Kauto Star on just his second start for Paul Nicholls. He went through the race cruising in second gear only to fall at the second last. Back then a jockey could remount and Walsh having seen the winner go past him got back onboard and only just failed to win in a photo. Now the opposition may not have been world beaters, but that dramatic race indicated to me that Kauto could be something special and so it proved !
Now back in January this year at a cold damp day at Wincanton See The World put up something akin to that Kauto performance. He basically stopped to a walk 2 furlongs from home having taken up the lead and then hung left. What happened next is something I have never seen in a race. He started running again having given the ones that went by him 15 lengths start, caught them up and then breezed on by the runner up in the final 100 yard to win by 4 plus lengths and I was gobsmacked ! It is all well and good giving a few lengths  or so away at the start of a race, but 2 furlongs out, that should not have been possible.
Now again he may not have beaten much, but that performance was something out of the ordinary and as such I had to back See The World. He may well be a world beater only time will tell. But whatever happens at Cheltenham that performance at Wincanton is something I doubt I or anyone else will see again any time soon.
Carl Nicholson and Value Backing members cleaned up at last years festival with a whopping £653 profit to £10 stakes, with many members staking and winning much more.

This year you can join him on a special package for Cheltenham 2015.

Here's what you get…

  • A selection in every race at the 2015 festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing main service and Value Backing Extra selections from now until the festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing Daily selections every day from now until the festival
  • The sooner you join the more bets you get 🙂
  • The Value Backing ante-post Cheltenham Yankee, pays £29,248 for a 50 pence each way stake – the sooner you join the bigger the prices you can get!
  • Optional – discounted ongoing membership to Value Backing

The price is just £20 – Click Here to secure your place now.

Epsom Oaks Selections

We have a real treat today (and tomorrow actually) with an analysis of Friday's Investec Oaks along with some recommended bets from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Investec Oaks Preview

The Oaks looks like a great betting race on Friday.

Taghrooda and Marvellous head the betting with Tarfasha and Ihtimal not too far behind.

Everything else is available at double figures which makes this an ideal race for each-way players. It is certainly not a race for favourite backers in recent times with the last four winners returning at odds of 20/1 (Talent 2013), 20/1 (Was 2012), 20/1 (Dancing Rain 2011) and 9/1 (Snow Fairy 2010).

Sariska in 2009 was the last favourite to win. In 2008 it was another big outsider who prevailed in Look Here @33/1. In fact only 3 favourites have prevailed in the last 10 years.

The Oaks has some strong trends and that is where we will start.

All of the last 10 winners had raced over further than a mile. That is a really interesting statistic as it would rule out leading fancy Marvellous.

Casual Look in 2003 was the last filly to win stepping up from a mile.

Six of the last 10 winners won last time out which would rule out Ihtimal from those prominent in the market.

Interestingly it would also rule out all of the O’Brien runners with the exception of Marvellous.

I wouldn’t actually let that put you off backing Ihtimal as a stronger statistic is that 15 of the last 17 winners had a top three finish last time out and she qualifies on that score.

In fact Ihtimal is a fascinating runner. She has form on good-to-soft, good-to-firm and on tapeta where she won the UAE 100 Guineas and the UAE Oaks over 10 furlongs.

Both were Group 3 races but she followed that up with an excellent third in the 1000 Guineas at the Rowley Mile. Of those at the front of the market I think she represents the best value at 8/1.

The lightly raced Madame Chiang is another fascinating runner, especially if the rain gets into the ground between now and race day.

She has only seen a racecourse twice; winning her maiden over a mile on soft ground at Yarmouth before winning the Musidora over 10f at York on her seasonal reappearance (also on soft ground).

With plenty of improvement possible and bred to stay the extra 2 furlongs, she also represents value at the current odds of 14/1.

John Gosden’s string are in cracking form at the moment, especially his fillies. Sultanina (10/1) and Freedom’s Light (9/1) were first and second in a photo finish in the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock last Saturday, thrashing the likes of Group winner Cubanita and Sir Maichael Stoute’s Astonishing.

Taghrooda is Gosden’s only representative and if she is the pick of his middle distance fillies at home then she could be hard to beat. I prefer her over Aiden O’Brien’s Marvellous for the simple reason she has form in the book over 10f and has fewer questions to answer regarding the trip of 1m 4f. However, at 7/2 I am prepared to look elsewhere.

In addition to the big priced outsiders who have won this race in recent times, we have also had placed horses at 16/1, 16/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 25/1 in the last 5 years.

Of those that are currently in that price bracket, Luca Cumani’s Volume has possibilities of making the frame. She has yet to finish out of the 3 in 8 races to date, although two of those were handicaps. She also won the trial at Newbury which is the same race where Izzy Top beat Dancing Rain in 2012.

Those two went on to contest the Oaks and finished 3rd and 1st at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively. She has to improve on what she has done so far but if the ground has some juice in it then she looks all about stamina and could be staying on at the end.

Epsom Oaks Selections:

Best value: Intimal @8/1
Each-way alternative: Madame Chiang @14/1
Lively outsider: Volume @20/1 (each-way)

# Kautoyoustar

Kauto Star Betfair are running a competition to win a framed photo print stamped by Kauto Star or a Betfair scarf stamped.

All you have to do is to follow Betfair on twitter @BetfairRacing and tweet with the hashtag #kautoyoustar saying what make Kauto a star to you. Full details here

Hennessy Gold Cup 

It's Hennessy Gold Cup day tomorrow and there is a lot of opinion as to the likely victor, as you might imagine.

Lets start with one time favourite Great Endeavour.

Nick Mordin has a very interesting piece highlighting the shortcomings of the UK method of assessing the ground conditions on track.

As his example he assesses the runaway success of Great Endeavour in  the Paddy Power Gold Cup…

I think it was misleading for most bookies to mark Great Endeavour up as favourite for the Hennessy following this run. You only have to look at the horse's record to agree with trainer David Pipe's assessment that the 3m 2f of that race ‘might be a bit far'.

I have to agree with this assessment and see no value in following GE.

So let's assess the others…

Neptune Collenges – Excluded on age and recent form
Planet of Sound, Wayward Prince, Muirhead, Blazing Bailey – Recent Form
Fair Along, Balthazar King, Tullamore Dew, Billie Magern, Qhilimar – Out of the handicap
Beshabar – Needs further
Carruthers – Prefers small fields and heavy ground
Michel Le Bon – No recent form, hard to assess, possible danger
Sarando, The Giant Bolster – Suspect jumping ability
That leaves Aiteen Thirteethree & Wymott. We prefer Wymott who's last run can be excluded after picking up an injury. Set to carry just 10-2, he will also carry our stake. Good luck

Todays Tip

Newbury 3.50 Colour Squadron  (Result 2nd)

 

 

 

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