Tag Archives: place money

Nick Hardman Tips

Anybody that followed our Friday Nick Hardman columns in 2014 will have made plenty of profit from the selections posted.

2015 has already got off to a great start and today Nick has selections at Huntingdon and Doncaster and selections for tomorrows Lanzarote…

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We had a great start to 2015 with 3 winners from our 5 AW selections in addition to L’Ami Serge winning comfortably and Triolo D’Alene grabbing some place money @16/1 under a brilliant ride by Barry Geraghty on Saturday.

This week we turn our attention to the Friday cards at Huntingdon and Doncaster and we have a couple of selections for the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson has a 44% strike rate at Huntingdon in the last 2 years. In that time he has sent out 15 winners from 34 runners. 9 of those winners were in hurdles races and he is 3-4 in maiden hurdles at the course.

Today he has a couple of qualifiers who are pretty much unknown quantities.

Huntingdon 1.20pm Maestro Royale
Huntingdon 2.30pm Hel Tara

Nicky Henderson also does well at Doncaster with his hurdlers. In the last two years his hurdlers at the course are 15-37 (41% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of £37.46.

His handicap hurdlers have a lower strike rate (31%) but tend to pop up at decent prices with his last 4 handicap hurdle winners at the course returning industry SPs of 16/1, 15/2, 8/1 and 8/1. He has a trio of hurdle runners today.

Doncaster 12.30pm Saint Charles (Maiden hurdle)
Doncaster 1.35pm Nicolas Chauvin (Novice hurdle)
Doncaster 3.15pm Earth Amber (Handicap hurdle)

The Lanzarote Hurdle is one of the feature races on Saturday and I like the look of Dawalan and Hello George who are both backable each-way at 8/1.

Dawalan represents the Henderson/ Geraghty combination.

Back in November he got to within half a length of Sign Of A Victory over 2 miles and the latter is now rated 149 over hurdles having been last seen in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

Dawalan also had the re-opposing Kilcooley 16 lengths behind that day and that horse has gone on and franked that form (2nd to L’Ami Serge and 23 length winner at Haydock on his next two starts).

What is more significant though in the context of the Lanzarote hurdle is Dawalan’s battling victory at Ascot over 2m 4f on his last start.

That day he was outpaced and 5 lengths down three from home, but rallied gamely to get up close home to beat stable mate and 145 rated Bear’s Affair.

The extra furlong should suit and he gets a whole stone from Kilcooley who heads the weights.

Hello George ran a good race in the Ladbroke Hurdle, not beaten that far in 6th. He probably needs more of a test than the 2 miles he faced that day and he certainly gets it here.

He was tapped for toe in the Ladbroke but stayed on nicely to suggest the step up in trip may well suit.

He gets in off a light weight of 10st and that should see him competitive if he sees out the trip.

Saturday January 10th

Kempton 2.40 pm Dawalan 8/1 and Hello George 8/1 (1pt e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

Stat Attack

Mr Chocolate Drop finished 4th yesterday at 20/1 and so just missed out on the place money!

As promised yesterday I've done some research into horses that are back in a class that they have had a 100% place record in previously.

I've tried to replicate the conditions that highlighted Mr Chocolate Drop and although I've squeezed out some profit from the analysis, it's not a huge profit and I need to follow it live for a while before I can be confident that the selections are worth following.

The rules I've ended up with are…

All Weather Handicap Races
Standard Going
Horse has placed 100% of races in today's Class
Odds greater than 5/4
Horse has placed more than 66% of time on going

The results for 2013 are…

Runs = 151
Wins = 36
Strike Rate = 23.84%
Profit at iSP = 24.5
Return on Investment = 16.23%

Two qualify today…

Burren View Lady (4.30 Wolverhampton 3/1 Bet 365)
Commandable (3.30 Southwell) (8/1 Bet Victor)

Stat Attack today has two 100% horses…

Burren View Lady (4.30 Wolverhampton) – Has placed 100% of its races at Wolverhampton at today's distance on today's going. (3/1 Bet 365)

Reaping The Reward (2.10 Musselburgh) – Has placed in 100% of it's non handicap races. (15/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor)

Both could win but neither appeals at the prices!

I may have a small bet on Commandable, but he is only having his second race in the UK and I may have to add a rule regarding number of previous UK races!

Today's Selection

1.00 Southwell Raging Bear – eachway bet – 13/2 Will Hill

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