Tag Archives: Pontefract

Up In Class by Trainer Nicky Henderson

So today I am getting started on the job of researching individual trainers at individual courses when their novice hurdlers step up in class.

I'm going to start off with Nicky Henderson, simply because he has the most runners of the trainers that we have selected for this system.

It may be a case the Nicky's charges are over-bet because of his status, but we'll look at the data and see what we can find.

Because we are drilling down deeper and deeper the number of runners meeting a set of criteria will be less and less and it may be tricky to determine if a strike rate and profit is significant or not.

When looking at which courses are most profitable for Nicky Henderson, novice hurdlers that are upped in class, I have only looked at courses where there have been at least 10 qualifiers in the last 10 years.

Here's the table…

Nicky Henderson Novice Hurdlers Table

 

What jumps out is the huge profit (ROI) and strike rates at Huntingdon, Kempton and Ludlow.

Nicky Henderson is based in Upper Lambourn which is on the M4 and relatively convenient for the top class venues of Newbury, Cheltenham, Ascot, Kempton and Sandown.

Of the courses listed above Huntingdon is the furthest at around 100 miles from base.

I'm not sure if we should read something into the class of the tracks, I suppose I'm surprised that Towcester isnt in the profit list, but the stats don't lie. This is definitely how it panned out in the past, let's hope it can steer us towards some winners in the future.

Today's Selection

5.10 Pontefract Dark Ruler – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor

Horse Racing Drawn To Win

There’s racing at Pontefract this afternoon, so today I have an update on how the draw bias is panning out so far this year.

As you will recall from previous articles at Pontefract we bet all stall 2 horses over all distances.

Drawn to Win

There have been 9 meetings this year and using this strategy would have seen you win at 6 of those meetings.

There have been sixteen winners at..

11/1, 8/1, 4/1, evens, 8/1, 4/1, 11/2, 5/2, 10/1, 3/1, 4/1, 5/2, evens, 6/1, 9/2, 7/2

That’s a 81% return on investment!

Here’s the output from HorseRaceBase for all stall 2 runners at Pontefract in 2014.

Pontefract Stall 2 - 2014

I don’t know how long this situation will last, but here are the figures for the last three years. Prior to 2011 this was a losing strategy!

Pontefract Stall 2 2011-13
Finally I don't like to add price restrictions to my systems because it is just factoring in other peoples biases, but it's worth noting that there's only been one winner at 22/1 or bigger and that if you exclude those horses that start at 22/1 or bigger the 2014 ROI goes up to 105%!

Those are the facts, I’ll leave it to you to decide what to do with them.

Todays Selection

Pontefract 3.40 Rocket Ship – win bet – 9/4 Bet 365

SP Before the Off

Grey Horse BotToday we have the first post from new contributor Malcolm Pett.

Malcolm explains how we can know the Betfair SP and bet based on Betfair SP before the off!

Here's Malcolm…

Just about every system you come across on the web would first have been created using past data.

If this is the case then the result will be shown using either SP (Industry Standard starting price) or BSP (Betfair Starting Price) for results.

There is nothing really wrong with this because it is the only way of giving people the chance to check the results they are seeing as being accurate.

But where it does cause an issue and pose a problem is when it is a price sensitive system or a system that relies on being on a particular ranked runner, like the favourite.

BSP and SP are calculated at the off.

You may think by looking at the ranking a few seconds before the off will tell you who was favourite, second favourited etc…

But often this isn't the case. The BSP/SP announced ranking can be different to the just before the off rank.

A short test we did with Betfair some time back clearly showed that the rankings can differ by as much as 1 or 2 runners in every 10.

Maybe this doesn’t sound too bad…

…But when you consider you could be following hundreds or even thousands of bets over the course of a year…this could easily change the results you were expecting or the results being advertised.

The same is true of price. The price before the off is often different to BSP/SP causing even more inaccuracies in your system.

So what can you do to make sure you are on the correct runner or within the correct price range?

You may already know that just as Betfair's market goes in-play the BSP price and ranking is made available through their API.

So we have developed a great feature on the Grey Horse Bot that allows the bot to read the BSP price and Ranking as soon as it happens.

This gives the Grey Horse Bot user the opportunity to choose which ranked runner to bet on or to only place a bet into the market if it is within the price range you require.

When you create your own system it should be part of your testing to determine if you get better prices before the off or in-play. You can test both automatically with the Grey Horse Bot.

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

——

Malcolm is the creator of a number of Betfair automated betting products like the Grey Horse Bot. He also writes articles for Betfair. Apart from automation Malcolm likes creating and testing systems and believes his readers should have all the statistical facts available to make proper informed decisions.

If you have any questions about bots or automation please add a comment and we'll try and answer them.

Today's Selection

Pontefract 2.30 Sakhee's Return – win bet – 10/3 Bet Victor

Free Horse Racing Magazine

Today we have a couple of updates plus details of our free mobile magazine.

Windsor Highest Drawn Horse

You'll remember we posted this on Thursday and the first meeting since the research was Saturday afternoon.

There were 6 qualifying races on the day and of the 6 bets 1 won with an SP of 8/1.

The Betfair SP was 12.0

So a good day, but the jury is still out on this system.

One helpful reader checked the year to date for this method and posted this comment…

Highest drawn horse excluding 1m3f 2014
64 bets 10 wins return to bsp less commission 103.16
1m3f races 9 bets, 1 win return 3.40.figures may be skewed by 1 horse winning at 47.55

Pontefract Draw

This had a losing day yesterday with just a one 5/2 (BSP 3.74) winner from 6 qualifying races.

Free Horse Racing Magazine

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Currently it's just getting the articles from Daily Punt, but we have plans to add some
exclusive content later this month, so it's well worth having and is totally free forever.

Register here http://dailypunt.com/daily-punt-magazine-subscribe-free/

Today's Selection

Startford 6.00 Thatchers Gold – win bet – 7/4 Bet 365

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