Tag Archives: post betting

20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Today I have a Cheltenham bet from a tipster who made 65 points profit at last years festival and who set up the year for many of his members.

The bet is one leg of a yankee and if you want the other three legs there are details of a very special and cheap offer at the end of this post.

The four bets together will pay £29,248 for a 50 pence each way yankee if he pulls this off!

The Value Backing service is in great form at the moment and is already 33 points up for 2015 with a 118% ROI.

There have been winners this year already at  20/1, 18/1, 12/1 and shorter.

Here's the selection from Value Backing…

UPDATE – See The World will not run in the Champion Bumper 🙁

Champion Bumper Wednesday 11th March – See The World 1pt win @ 20’1 Betfred 

When it come to ante post betting at Cheltenham one of my favourite angles is to look for something out of the ordinary in a previous performance. Way back in 2005 I remember watching the great Kauto Star on just his second start for Paul Nicholls. He went through the race cruising in second gear only to fall at the second last. Back then a jockey could remount and Walsh having seen the winner go past him got back onboard and only just failed to win in a photo. Now the opposition may not have been world beaters, but that dramatic race indicated to me that Kauto could be something special and so it proved !
Now back in January this year at a cold damp day at Wincanton See The World put up something akin to that Kauto performance. He basically stopped to a walk 2 furlongs from home having taken up the lead and then hung left. What happened next is something I have never seen in a race. He started running again having given the ones that went by him 15 lengths start, caught them up and then breezed on by the runner up in the final 100 yard to win by 4 plus lengths and I was gobsmacked ! It is all well and good giving a few lengths  or so away at the start of a race, but 2 furlongs out, that should not have been possible.
Now again he may not have beaten much, but that performance was something out of the ordinary and as such I had to back See The World. He may well be a world beater only time will tell. But whatever happens at Cheltenham that performance at Wincanton is something I doubt I or anyone else will see again any time soon.
Carl Nicholson and Value Backing members cleaned up at last years festival with a whopping £653 profit to £10 stakes, with many members staking and winning much more.

This year you can join him on a special package for Cheltenham 2015.

Here's what you get…

  • A selection in every race at the 2015 festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing main service and Value Backing Extra selections from now until the festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing Daily selections every day from now until the festival
  • The sooner you join the more bets you get 🙂
  • The Value Backing ante-post Cheltenham Yankee, pays £29,248 for a 50 pence each way stake – the sooner you join the bigger the prices you can get!
  • Optional – discounted ongoing membership to Value Backing

The price is just £20 – Click Here to secure your place now.

Each Way Value


If you don't know about Clive Keeling and his What Really Wins Money newsletter I suggest you check him out.

One of the things that Clive goes on (and on and on) about is what he calls Each Way Value Alternatives or EVA's.

I eluded to this with one of our selections the other day and have been waiting for an opportunity to elaborate on the each way value alternative.

Basically a common occurrence in horse racing is the race with only 2 or 3 real contenders.

These races usually involve an odds on favourite and one or two other contenders along with a lot of no hopers.

Statistically the other contenders have a great chance of placing. And these are the horses we want to bet.

So how do we find these each way efficient races.

Ideally we want 8 or 9 to run, so look first at races of this size. With 8 runners each way bets get paid out on 3  places.

That means we have a better chance of getting paid out and there is not too much competition for those places.

Watch out for non runners though because when the number drops down to 7 we only get paid on two places.

Let's look at an example.

This is the Racing Post betting forecast for the 4.50 at Wolverhampton.

Betting Forecast

There are 9 runners and so if you bet each way with the bookmaker you will get 1/5 odds if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd on the place part of our bet.

If the forecast odds are a fair representation of the horses chances then Fortunelini should stand a good chance of finishing in the 1st 3.

And if it starts at 13/2 (6.5 to 1) then we get odds of 1.3 to 1, of course we lose the win part of the bet if the horse places. But we are getting 0.3 to one if it places with a big bonus if it wins.

And if the forecast is accurate then our horse is very likely to place.

So that's the EVA method a word of warning though, bookmakers don't like punters who regularly bet these EVA's!!

UPDATE (09:30): Fortunelini is now the 12/1 3rd favourite and 9 still run, the value has improved considerably!

Todays Selection

Wolverhampton 3.50 Prince of Vasa Each Way (Result Non Runner)

 

 

Betting Market Dynamics

Jon BurgessSuccessful Punters Understand The Dynamics of The Betting Market

Most punters who bet on horses have a basic understanding of Jockey and favourite statistics.

Unfortunately these are pretty useless from a profit point of view. And in order to make any meaningful gains you definitely need to do some digging.

There are literally hundreds of strands of data and statistics which make up the betting puzzle.

Unfortunately it will always be difficult to calculate the precise chances of each runner.

Nevertheless it is possible to gauge the over all probability based on essential horse racing factors.

The odds are directly related to likelihood of success. Therefore from a pure betting point of view it's wise to focus on three primary evolving racing statistics:

  • Horse odds
  • Trainer statistics
  • Favourite statistics

Another important factor that you should also consider in your calculations is how Racing Tipsters can influence the way the markets bet.

Horse odds

Odds are compiled by experienced form analysts, known as “odds compliers” these professionals are employed by private handicappers such as Racing Post or the Bookies.

The betting forecasts compiled by these guys reflect the probability and implied chance of each horse.

Each horses odd`s change throughout the betting day and are affected by various factors.

Key facts to be aware of:

  • The betting market is totally money driven the odds shorten and lengthen based around this factor.
  • The Racing Post betting forecasts are published in several newspapers
  • The forecast favourite in the Racing Post is very often not the betting market favourite on the betting exchanges, or at SP time
  • Forecast favourites in the Racing Post who still occupy the favourites slot at SP time statistically win more than those that don`t.
  • Betting forecast favourites can be withdrawn leaving another horse to become favourite by default.
  • Other horses can be supported more than the favourite thus causing its odds to drift. This is two fold and the favourite may remain top of the market, but its opening price may have drifted out. Conversely, 1st favourites can become 2nd favourites if other horses are supported more. This situation is often present in handicap races which are generally more competitive than non handicaps.
  • In non handicaps strong favourites can be supported almost exclusively making their odds steam (shorten)

Favourites statics

Fall into two categories generic and specific.

Generic statistics relate to ALL winning favourites percentages and specific relate to subcategories of wining favourites, such as favourites at each course split into various categories.

These statistics need to be monitored as they change regularly, therefore requiring subjective assessment.

Trainer strike rates

Fall into two categories generic and specific. Both reflect the documented win percentages of each trainer’s horses. These statistics need to be monitored as they change regularly, therefore require subjective assessment.
Key facts to be aware of:
• In Flat racing a trainers horses statistics are divided by age, e.g. 2 year olds, 3 year olds and 4 year old+) and are either classed as handicap or non handicap races.
• In Jumps racing a trainers horse statistics are divided by race type, e.g. Hurdle, Chase, National Hunt Flat; Hurdles and chases are either classed as handicap or non handicap races.
• You can assess trainer statistics by clicking on ANY trainers name on the Racing Post.com website. Either through individual race cards or from the statistics pages.
Racing tips
Are based on documented horse form, trainer form etc. It’s a Tipsters job to pay attention to the horses competing each racing day and calculate how likely they are to win in any given race, according to their form.

Key facts to be aware of:

  • The majority of the betting public very often place bets based around free horse racing tips from various sources such as, mass circulation newspapers and dedicated form guides like the – Racing Post, Sportinglife and Time-form. To make things easier you can use the Racing Post SELECTIONS tool which collectively combines the tips from the Racing Post and all the UK National papers. Mass tipping really does affect the odds, and many horses steam or drift based around this factor alone.
  • Free horse racing tips aren't going to cost you anything, however this doesn’t mean you should blindly follow them. In fact it’s much better to form your own opinion based around the advice presented in your chosen daily form guide.

Summary

If you wish to become a successful punter it's important that you fully understand the basic dynamics of how the betting market evolves.

Once you are conversant your aim should be to quantify the primary factors giving each one a different weighting depending on its importance.

The final stage of your assessment should be to weigh up each race and identify the strongest contenders.

Evaluating which horses should be supported and which should be opposed, including the favourite.

In reality you should only look at QUANTIFIABLE factors.

Anything that can`t be verified reasonably accurately is open to interpretation and will only act as a distraction, therefore should be ignored.

About the author – Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School and Betfair`s Education site. His betting systems have been PROVEN by many online review sites, not only to be genuine, but actually produce long-term profits. He offers Exclusive tips & methods to help make you’re betting easier & more profitable on his blog at: false-favourites.co.uk/blog  
Todays Tip

Newbury 12.20 Schism (we will put this up for a win bet, but it is almost a free bet if you go eachway!)

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close