Tag Archives: Premier League bets

Free Football Tips

If you like to know exactly why your tipster makes the bets he makes and you like to see just how much work goes into making winning selections then you'll love Mark Foley.

Mark made 36 points profit in December with his Premier League bets and today I have his analysis and selections for the Sunderland V Liverpool game for you.

Last time we gave one of Mark's analysis here it made a tasty profit for readers and wise owls joined his service here for just £9.99

http://footballforecasts.uk

Racing fans, don't forget Nick Hardman gave his Lanzarote tips on yesterdays post.

Over to Mark Foley…

Sunderland v Liverpool 12.45 BT Sport1

Liverpool have been improving of late and their only defeat in the last 8 came at Old Trafford, they have also made the semi finals of the Capital One cup and are in the 4th round of the FA cup. However, you wouldn’t want one of their players to take your dog for a walk, they are still struggling to hold onto a lead and threw away a two goal lead against Leicester last week.

Sunderland have looked far more secure since Costel Pantilimon took over between the sticks, he has the best saves to shots ratio of any Premier League goalkeeper this season (78%) and although Sunderland have won just one of their last 10 league matches, they have only lost three of those ten games.

The Black Cats have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Liverpool but 4 of the games have ended as draws. Liverpool have won five of their last eight Premier League visits to the Stadium of Light (W5 D1 L2). One of those defeats back in 2009 saw the only Sunderland goal scored by a certain B.Ball; whatever happened to Mr beach ball?

Sunderland have scored a higher proportion of their goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League games than any other side (33%) and they have also picked up more yellow cards (52) than any other team in the top flight. Sunderland to come from behind and draw looks like a bit of value at 8/1 with Hills.

Liverpool have only been losing once after 45 in their last 15 PL games and have been all square in all but 3 of the last 13.

Sunderland have either been drawing 0-0 or 1-1 at HT in all but one of their last 10 PL games. Look towards a blank first half.

Sunderland have played every team currently in the top seven at home apart from Southampton and four of the six games have ended as draws. All but 3 of Sunderland’s 10 goals at home came in the first half hour of the games.

Liverpool have played five teams currently in the top half of the table away from Anfield and have lost four of them. If Sunderland do get an early goal, there is a good chance it will be Adam Johnson who has scored in three of his last four Premier League games.

Seven of the last 11 goals against the Black Cats were scored by Luis Suarez (plus two by Daniel Sturridge). All but one of Raheem Sterling’s 4 goals have come away from home and as long as Liverpool don’

My bets:

Draw/Draw: BetVictor 17/4

HT/FT correct score 0-0/1-1: Powers 16/1

Sunderland to come from behind and draw: Hills 8/1

Adam Johnson 1st goal: BetVictor 13/1

Also considered:

Correct score 1-1: BetVictor 13/2

Correct score HT 0-0: Boylesports 2/1

Raheem Sterling 1st goal: Widely available 5/1

Good Luck
Mark Foley

http://footballforecasts.uk

Don’t Quit Early

You remember a couple of weeks ago I told you about a free trial of a football tipping service?

The service was providing tips from a top guy who has been impressing members at the Betting Insiders club, Mark Foley.

Lot's of people joined that free trial.

And then when Mark had a losing first week lot's of people dropped out and those people missed out on some great profits that followed.

Today's message is about not quitting after a couple of losing days and also a last chance to try this service before the price goes up.

This weekend Mark made 23 points profit at level stakes, so for £10 bettors that's £230 in one weekend.

Unfortunately the free trial is no longer available, currently the offer is £1 for 30 days access and the trial price is going up again this weekend.

If you want involvement with some serious Premier League bets for just a pound for the first month and then just £19.99 per month if you continue then click here before Saturday.

Click Here for Football Forecasts £1 Trial

Today's Selection

7.15 Kempton Chauvelin – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

Home Advantage: Easy Money?

The Betting Insiders report has just landed on my doormat.

I read it cover to cover as soon as it lands.

The piece that caught my eye, especially as I'm thinking about my Premier League bets for the weekend, is regarding home advantage.

Leon Pidgeon has done some detailed research on whether home advantage exists.

And more specifically, how much should it effect the selections we bet on.

The first shocking stat is that over the last five seasons of English and Scottish football you could just blindly back the away team and almost break even (0.16% loss on investment)

That's at bookmaker prices!

Leon goes on to analyse individual leagues both in the UK and all over Europe to see where home advantage is a factor and where it is not.

It wouldn't be fair for me to share the stats publicly. After all Leon has put in hours of work and club members have paid for this research via their subs.

But the point I want to make is that this research goes against one of my rules of football betting.

That is that the home, away, draw football markets are tight and that my profit needs to come from the side markets where I can be more expert. Than the experts.

What this home advantage research shows me is that we can get ahead of the bookies in the lower leagues.

It makes sense that odds makers will be looser in these markets where not so much is bet.

In summary I have learned that…

  • In every league the percentage of home wins is higher than aways or draws. As you would expect.
  • In some leagues that advantage is lower
  • More pertinent to us, in some leagues there is value in the home prices
  • And in others there is value in the away prices (Leon gives valid reasons why this might be the case)

This research doesn't mean that I'm going to be blindly backing homes or aways in the relevant leagues, but rather that I will factor this into my footie bets.

And it might herald a move back into  the match odds market. Which I currently only use for trading.

What do you think – feel free to argue in the comments 😉

Source: Betting Insiders Club

Today's Selection

Southwell 1.20 Caledonia Prince – Win Bet

 

 

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