Tag Archives: previous winners

Doncaster Hurdlers

Today we have our regular, winning advice from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders. (http://bettinginsiders.com )

Another Three Winners

We bagged another 3 winners last Friday although it was frustrating to see Trustan Times being badly impeded while in the process of running a big race in the Fixed Brush Hurdle on Saturday.  Still, that’s racing for you and we move on.  This week we take a look at a trainer with a fantastic record with his hurdlers and I will tell you where my money is going in the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday.

When I started writing this post I was looking for an angle for today’s Doncaster meeting and one trainer that caught my eye was John Quinn.  His record at Doncaster since 2010 is shown below:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.21.50

John Quinn has sent out 309 hurdlers in the last 5 seasons compared to 25 chasers and 27 bumper runners.  If we look at the performance of his hurdlers at Doncaster priced 20/1 or shorter the stats look even more impressive:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.26.18

That got me thinking about the performance of his hurdlers at other tracks.  He does exceptionally well (strike rate >30%) at many of the Northern tracks, especially Doncaster, Cartmel and Newcastle.  His hurdlers are worth noting at the following tracks:

Ayr, Ascot, Cartmel, Doncaster, Haydock, Hexham, Lingfield, Newbury, Newcastle, Perth, Wetherby and Worcester.  Backing all his hurdlers at these tracks, priced 20/1 or shorter since 2010 would have resulted in the following profits:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.27.05

If you want a system with consistency then take a look at the yearly breakdown of John Quinn’s hurdlers at the courses we identified above.

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.28.01

John Quinn has 2 hurdlers entered at Newcastle on Saturday:

2.05pm Aurore D’Estruval @6/1

3.15pm Zermatt

Saturday also sees the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and it looks like a terrific renewal.  I have taken a look at the profiles of the previous winners and there are two that tick plenty of boxes.  The two trends horses I will be backing are:

Newbury 3.00pm Smad Place @8/1 and Rocky Creek @10/1

Betfred Mile Tips

Today we are joined by Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has analysed the Betfred King George Stakes and the Betfred Mile.

To get access to all Nick's tips join him at http://bettinginsiders.com

The Glorious Goodwood festival is in full flow and Friday sees the Group 2 Betfred King George Stakes over 5f and the 20 runner Betfred Mile heritage handicap. I have run the rule over the entries and hopefully identified a few likely types including a 28/1 outsider for the feature sprint.

3.05pm Betfred Mile (Heritage handicap) 1m

A big field handicap over a mile and it is worth applying some trends to try and whittle the field down to a few likely contenders.

16 of the last 17 winners were all aged 3 to 5yo
14 of the last 17 winners had a previous win at the distance
All bar two of the winners since 1997 had raced in the last 30 days
14 of the winners since 1997 had run to a top 5 finish LTO

That leaves us with a short list of three – Velox, Russian Realm and Heavy Metal.

With Russian Realm doubtful we are left with the top two in the betting. These horses are those that best match the profiles of previous winners since 1997.

Trends selections: Velox @7/1 and Heavy Metal @9/1

3.40pm King George Stakes 5f

Caspian Prince looks a tad overpriced @28/1 given he has some decent form on downhill tracks including a win in the Epsom dash earlier this year.

This is an obvious step up in class but he is a speedy type who should be suited by the track and must have an each-way shout if the rain stays away (best form on good to firm).

Demora is another who brings good handicap form to the table and is worth a crack at this level. On form then Extortionist looks the one to beat but is priced up accordingly.

Tropics also has top notch Group form including a career best runner up spot to Slade Power in the July Cup.

However, this is his first attempt at the minimum trip.

Hamza has a Group 3 win to this name three starts back (Es Que Love back in 2nd) and will most likely attempt to make all. He looks a solid back-to-lay proposition.

Last year’s winner Moviesta has failed to go on this year but his figures over 5f on good or good to firm are excellent. I think he will run well.

Likeliest winner: Extortionist @9/2
Alternative: Moviesta @8/1
Each-way alternatives: Caspian Prince @28/1

Finally don’t forget to keep an eye out for the 2yo Godolphin runners at Newmarket this Friday and Saturday. We have previously highlighted their performance at the July course over the last 5 years and they have proved very profitable to follow for this column in the last 4 weeks.

Nick Hardman
http://bettinginsiders.com

Epsom Derby Tips

Following on from yesterdays Oaks analysis today we have Nick Hardman's (Betting Insiders) Epsom Derby tips.

The Derby ante-post market has been all about Aiden O’Brien’s Australia and it is 5/4 the field right now. If he lives up to the hype he will win this comfortably and if you truly believe that then I would not put you off backing him.

However, I haven’t seen enough on the racecourse to be tempted by those odds and I am happy to take him on.

Similar to the Oaks, the Derby has some strong trends that are worth exploring.

Only 2 of the last 17 winners were priced 17/2 or higher and all of the last 15 winners returned odds of 7/1 or shorter.

With 16 of the last 17 winners coming from the top 4 in the market it has certainly paid not to look too far down the list. 16 of the last 17 winners either won or filled the runners up spot on their previous start (13 won and 3 were second).

Interestingly that would rule out the top three from the betting – Australia (3rd in 2000 Guineas), Geoffrey Chaucer (3rd in the Leopardstown Derby trial) and Kingston Hill (8th in the 2000 Guineas) as well as True Story (3rd in the Dante).

It would take a surprise winner to maintain that trend on Saturday afternoon. Finally, 12 of the last 17 winners had raced beyond 1 mile and all 10 previous winners had had no more than 5 runs.

With Australia at prohibitive odds for this particular punter, I will look at the 3 behind him in the market. Geoffrey Chaucer is second favourite having been backed in from 12s to around 7s. He was unlucky in the Leopardstown trial and was eased down into 3rd after being squeezed for room.

That was over 1m 2f and he appears versatile ground-wise. I think the money coming for him is significant and I’d be delighted to see Ryan Moore on board. The 8/1 with PaddyPower looks a solid bet and with only 3 runs under his belt there is surely more to come.

The horse who beat Geoffey Chaucer that day was Fascinating Rock and he is another one with solid place prospects. He has won his last 3 starts (all over 10f) with the last two being Group 3 races.

He will surely stay and has done all his winning on good-to-soft and soft so he won’t be inconvenienced by any rain.

At 14/1 he is definitely an each-way candidate.

True Story has a lot to prove after a disappointing run in the Dante and he may just be a different horse on good or quick ground. I would have to wait and see what the going was on the day before making a decision on this horse. Kieran Fallon is very keen on him and he says we will see a different horse on the day.

Kingston Hill was an emphatic winner of the Racing Post Trophy on soft ground on his final 2 year old start but has never raced beyond a mile. Western Hymn does get 10f as his last 2 victories have shown so stamina should not be an issue for John Gosden’s colt.

He was very impressive on his seasonal reappearance but was less than convincing on his next start in the Sandown trial, hanging badly left in the final furlong.

Snow Sky took the Lingfield Derby trial but looks held by Western Hymn on their Newbury running and was trounced by Kingston Hill in the Racing Post Trophy (albeit over 1 mile).

Of the remainder, Aiden O’Brien’s Orchestra is interesting after overcoming greenness to win the Chester Vase over the exact same trip as the Derby. After just 3 runs he is open to plenty of improvement and he showed that day that a mile and a half is within his reach.

This year’s renewal is a fascinating contest, especially with Australia taking a huge chunk out of the market. Clearly connections have seen enough at home to feel Australia is much better than Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra.

However, if he were to lose he would certainly not be the first Ballydoyle hot-pot to be turned over by the second or third string from that stable. At the prices I think the value lies with Geoffrey Chaucer.

Of those at bigger prices, Kingston Hill, Orchestra, Fascinating Rock and Western Hymn all make some each-way appeal. I make Orchestra the pick of the four having proven himself over a mile and a half on soft ground at Chester, but all of them are worthy of consideration for an upset.

Epsom Derby Selections:

Best value: Geoffrey Chaucer @8/1 (PaddyPower)
Each-way alternative: Orchestra @16/1

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close