Tag Archives: principles

Fit and Fancied Jumpers System

Before I hand you over to John for his Fit and Fancied Jumpers system I just want to mention some free training that was released yesterday that you may be interested in.

This free video and training shows a straightforward method for profiting from Forex trading and covers all the basics to help newbie traders. Click Here.

Over to John Cutts…

If you missed yesterday's message which introduced the idea behind this system, Click Here.

I promised yesterday to illustrate my research about horses turned out again quickly.

Click on the following link where i will walk you through the process where, building upon the theory i put forward yesterday that trainers have learned from the maestros like Martin Pipe and Sir Mark Prescott and now, having copied their training methods, are able to emulate their achievements with horses making a quick reappearance.

Today we look at the jumps. Tomorrow we will look at the flat. Here is the link:

Click Here for the research and system

Click Here to get the selections e-mailed to you daily

This is a system which has produced 49% winners and a ROI of 117.9% with every year a winning one since 2004 – and it is free, just to illustrate the theory.

Tomorrow we will look at similar principles, based on the same discoveries, but applied to the all weather, (very handy given the weather!). This system has a 30% strike rate and has produced an ROI of 125% since the all weather started in 1989!

John Cutts

Today's Selection

3.15 Ludlow Mickie – each way bet – 9/2 Bet 365, Will Hill, Paddy Power

A Value Bet Explained

Before I hand over to Kieran for part two of his Value Betting series of articles I just want to mention Racing Dossier.

If you downloaded the free Racing Dossier software then today you can get the first system to use with the software.

This system made 171 points profit in 2012, 15 points so far in 2013 and has a 29% strike rate.

You can download it here – Click Here
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Today’s article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk
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“We have found value on a bet when we secure a price that exceeds the true probability of that outcome occurring.”

Let’s look at a very simple event to demonstrate the principle:

We are betting on a coin toss. There are two possible outcomes of a coin toss: heads comes up or tails comes up. Either of those is equally likely to occur on any one coin toss, therefore the probability for either one is 50%.

A probability of 50% expressed in fractional odds is 1/1 or even money. In decimal odds that same probability would be expressed as 2.0.

If you were to take those odds about either event occurring in a coin toss, in the long run you would break even, neither making or losing money (though in the short term you could easily come unstuck due to general variance).

In other words, at odds of even money you have no edge – and are therefore receiving no value.

Even worse than that, a bookmaker would price up either event at 10/11 (1.91) to lock in his profit margin (known as their over-round).

On average we would achieve the following results backing heads at 10/11 (1.91) for £1 a time over 1000 bets:

500 winners: +£455
500 losers: -£500
Overall P/L: -£45

Clearly not a course of action we would want to pursue!

Conversely, if we managed to find a bookmaker prepared to offer 2.1 (11/10) about either outcome in a coin toss on average we would achieve the following results:

500 winners: + £550
500 losers: – £500
Overall P/L: + £50

Much better! The second set were value bets – we were getting a price that exceeded the true probability of the event occurring! We would be very foolish not to avail ourselves of that price, repeatedly and to the largest stakes we could afford (while applying sound money management principles, of course).

Unfortunately, we are unlikely to find any bookmaker offering 11/10 about a fixed probability event such as heads coming up in a coin toss. The true probability is fixed and therefore easily calculated. (If anybody ever does find such a bookmaker, please introduce me!).

Luckily, this is not the case for all events a punter might want to assess.

Tomorrow, I will be looking at some more complex events that are much more difficult for bookmakers to price accurately – and consequently offer us far greater opportunities for finding value!

Today's Selection

4.05 Lingfield Lady Mango – each way bet – 15/2 Bet 365

Value Betting Part 1

Today we kick off a five part series of articles looking at value betting and culminating with a method for finding value bets.

The articles have been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

Take it from me, you won’t be able to turn a regular consistent profit from your betting until you fully grasp the concept of value and start applying its principles to every single bet you place.

I literally cannot stress enough how important it is to understand and seek out value in all of your betting. It is, by far and away, the most important factor in profitable betting!

The only way you can make profit from betting in the long term is to ensure that you are getting value prices about your bets. If not, you are doomed to failure. It is that simple.

Amazingly, there are plenty of people out there who will tell you that finding winners is the only important thing. Anybody who tells you that is showing such staggering naivety (and inability to perform the simplest of calculations) that I need to meet them immediately and start offering them some wagers!

The ‘Hole in One’ gang are a great example of finding a value proposition and exploiting it ruthlessly. It’s a famous story but I think it bears a re-telling here.

The ‘Hole in One’ gang operated very successfully for a short time in the early 90s. They were 2 gamblers by the names of Paul Simons and John Carter who, through detailed study of past results, came to realise that the occurrence of a hole in one in professional golf, far from being a freakish, rare event was actually exceptionally common.

They calculated that the true odds of a hole in one being scored in one of golf’s majors are shorter than even money.

They were staggered to discover that large numbers of independent bookmakers were simply not doing their homework and were prepared to offer them ludicrous odds about a hole in one – up to 100/1 in some cases!

They toured the country surreptitiously placing bets in singles, doubles, trebles and accumulators for a hole in one to be scored in the majors, taking all prices from 3/1 upwards. By the time they were finished, they had plunged their entire lives savings of around £40,000 into a multitude of bets.

The rest is history. A hole in one was scored in most, if not all, of the majors that year and the gang’s winnings totalled somewhere in the region of £500,000. (Some of the bookmakers subsequently welched on the wagers and they eventually collected around £420,000).

£420,000 – all for doing a very simple piece of research and realising that the odds available were offering a ludicrous level of value!

Now clearly value opportunities of such magnitude (particularly on such a probable event) don’t arise everyday but you would be surprised just how often decent value opportunities do occur – particularly in horse racing where bookmakers have to assess an almost infinite set of factors in formulating their prices.

Tomorrow, I will define what I mean by ‘value betting’ and work through some examples to show just how important it is.

Today's selection

Wolverhampton 5.35 Follow The Flag – each way bet – 7/1 Victor Chandler

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