Tag Archives: profitable strategy

Dutching Profits

What is dutching and why should you do it?

Dutching is simply the process of betting on more than one outcome in a market to return an equal profit whichever of your selections wins.

When might you use dutching as a profitable strategy?

There are a number of scenarios where dutching might be a useful staking approach.

The most obvious being if you have analysed an event and have narrowed it down to 2 or more possible winners and you want to cover those selections.

This might be in a horse race where you have it down to a 2 runner race or in greyhound racing where it is often hard to narrow it down to one dog.

Other more creative uses of dutching would be in markets where you want to create a better value bet than is available elsewhere.

For example in the football correct score markets.

If you want to bet on a team to win but the odds are too short, you might decide that the losing team is unlikely to score. In which case you could dutch all the other score lines to get a bigger price about your expected winning team.

So as an example you might decide that Man Utd will win tonight (this may be a bad example given recent form, but we'll go with it).

Man U are 1.25 to win IE you bet £10 and you make £2.50 profit minus commission.

But lets say you are confident that Cardiff won't score.

You could dutch the score lines of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 at prices of 8.4, 6.8, 8.6, 15.0.

A £10 bet on these outcomes dutched together would give a profit of £12.27 for your £10 stake.

So if you are convinced there will be no Cardiff goals and no more than 4 Man U goals you could get a price of 2.27.

This is just an example but basically dutching allows you to make your own bets by combining outcomes to give bets that aren't available at Betfair or the bookies.

By the way you can just bet Man U to win to nil, but because that price includes 5-0, 6-0 7-0 etc it is shorter at about 1.97

There is a free calculator here that will work out your stakes for you.

Dutching is a useful staking strategy to have in your bag of tricks.

Today's Selection

Taunton 3.10 Milosam – win bet – 5/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

Value Betting System

I have been talking recently to a guy who started his betting career on a serious basis a few years ago. And by serious I mean he had to live off of the money he won.

He told me about the method that he used to find his value bets, which required no form study, and essentially was just comparing prices between bookmakers and Betfair.

This is a method I've heard about before and I've now done a bit of research for this article.

Basically the theory goes something like this…

1. Betfair odds represent the true chance of a horse winning (Wisdom of Crowds etc)

2. If you can get better odds from a bookmaker than the Betfair odds you have value.

3. When you find such a bet you either back with the bookie and lay off at Betfair for a guaranteed profit or just back the horse with the bookie because it is a value bet and you will win in the long run.

So I'm sure that has raised two questions in your mind, how profitable is it and how hard is it to find the selections.

Let's start with finding the selections, basically all this requires is to scan though the cards at Oddschecker looking for horses that have a bigger bookies price than the Betfair price.

Then clicking through to Betfair to see if you can lay the selection at shorter odds than the bookie price. If you can then place the bet with the bookie and either lay it or not at Betfair depending on which strategy you are using.

While looking for some data to confirm that this is still a profitable strategy I came across a tool that will find the bets for you and this tool has a results page showing results going back three years. Here's a screenshot for 2012.

Racing Synergy results

You can click here to get the full breakdown on Bet Synergy.

If you've used this method, this software or anything similar do let me know in the comments.

Today's Selection

Southwell 4.05 Burgoyne – win bet – 2/1 Bet365

Greyhounds – Is it fast enough

Once we have found a dog that looks like it will have a favourable position, ideally in front, at the first bend and will not get any trouble on the way to the bend then all you need to know now is whether it is fast enough to hold onto its lead.

It is very common to find a dog that will get a clear run around and will lead most of the way in a race only to lose in the closing stages.

These sprint type dogs just don’t have the stamina to hold on to the winning line and are a trap for anybody using the kind of strategy that we have discussed here.

The key clue to whether we are dealing with this kind of dog is its past race positions. If it has led previously all the way but still not won then you need to find a reason why it might hang on today. EG If in a previous race the positions are shown as 2111 but the dog didn’t win the race then this is a danger signal.

Maybe it is an easier race today maybe a lower grade. Maybe it is fitter today, if the last run came after rest or it is a puppy who is improving. If you can’t find a reason then maybe you should give this one a miss.

Because graded races are in theory constructed such that any dog could win, other than the types mentioned above, I tend to not pay too much attention to the previous times recorded by each dog. As long as my selection is not way slower than the opposition then I am likely to go with it.

The exceptions to this are where I can see a reason why one of the opposition might improve. These include…

Puppies. Young dogs that are just starting out on their careers which can improve in leaps and bounds.

Rested dogs. Dogs that have been off for a rest and are not yet running to their pre rest form. EG If they were running A4 grade before their rest but are now reappearing in an A6 then it is likely that at sometime soon they will return to the previous grade IE they are better than their opposition.

Bitches that have been in season. Bitches don’t run when they are in season. When they return they tend to find significant improvement at around 16 weeks after their season commenced. This tendency is significant enough to be a profitable strategy in itself.

One final point to keep in mind is that you don’t have to bet just one selection in a race. If you have narrowed a race down to two or three contenders then consider splitting your stakes between them.

Splitting stakes across multiple selections is a strategy I use a lot in greyhound racing. You can either bet the same stake on each dog or adjust your stake so you make the same profit whichever of your selections wins. There is a free tool at www.oddschecker.com that will help you determine the correct stakes for dutching selections.

And that is the method that I use to find winning greyhound selections. As with any betting method you are looking for a dog with a strong chance of winning and one that has a better chance than the available odds suggest. There is no clear cut selection ever, because if a dog is an obvious winner then the odds will reflect that.

But that said I have frequently found selections that I am sure will win, barring accidents, at 4/1 and 5/1.

Today's selection

6.20 Haydock Seven of Clubs Win Bet

Winning at the Dogs

Winning at the Dogs

Today I want to share with you an angle for winning at the dogs.

The dog markets get stronger by the day and there is plenty of action to assess. That can make it all overwhelming, but on the other hand if you have one or two angles that you can quickly identify then you can get plenty of action for your systems.

The angle I want to talk about today is greyhound bitches and their seasons.

A greyhound bitch will come into season once or twice a year. They are not allowed to run when they are in season. But when they do come back they do not run to their previous form.

It takes some time before they are back to their best, with the key date being 16 weeks after their season.

So you regularly get a scenario where a bitch is running in say an A6 grade, then comes into season. After her break she returns and runs some qualifying trials and is not at her best and ends up in a grade A7 or A8.

She runs poorly in a few races and then week 16 arrives and she's feeling better.

Then we have an A6 winning dog running in an A8 race. Now they don't all win but if you catch them at the right time as long as they are capable of winning (IE they aren't one of those dogs that doesn't like to be in front) then you can follow them until they do and come out in front.

So to demonstrate I've tracked one down today.

Now it's not the perfect example, because Lisnakill Joanna has just won in an A8 and is today in an A7.

So she's already showed some improvement. But last summer she won an A5 in 28.67. That form would see her win this comfortably.

The Racing Post forecast a starting price of 11/4 and she runs in the 5.47 at Belle Vue. However well she does today this is a profitable strategy worth getting familiar with.

Find Greyhound Season Date

Greyhound Season Date

This image shows where to find the season date on the Racing Post card.

Today's Selection

Wolverhampton 6.00 Dreamy Ciara – win bet

Belle Vue 5.47 Lisnakill Joanna – Win Bet

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