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Hamilton Trainer Trends

Today we have an article from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders where he looks at the Hamilton trainers for tonights meeting.

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Hamilton Trainer Trends

At first glance Keith Dalgleish does not appear to be a trainer to follow at Hamilton, despite a highly respectable strike rate of 14.95% in the last 5 years.

Backing all of his 194 runners at the track since 2010 would have resulted in an overall loss of £21.34 to £1 level stakes. However, if we focus solely on his runners in non-handicap races then we see a different story altogether.

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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The record of his runners in non-handicap races is not only highly impressive but they are highly profitable too with a 25% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

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His last 5 runners at the track in non-handicap races have finished 31121 at prices of 20/1, 7/1, 5/2, 50/1 and 9/4. On Friday he has the following entries in non-handicap races:

6.40pm Sir Acclam & Battleranger in the 6f maiden

Battleranger ran 2nd to an odds-on Mark Johnston fancy at the track last time out. That was only his second start and he outran his odds of 50/1 by some way. Sir Acclam was last of 9 on his sole start at Ayr.

Another trainer with a great record at Hamilton is Kevin Ryan. Since 2010 his runners at the course show a level stakes profit of £27.78 and a healthy strike rate of 23.33%.

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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His 3yo runners do particularly well.

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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He has the following entries on Friday:

7.40pm Hopes N Dreams & Blaine in the 6f class 2 handicap
8.45pm Keep To The Beat (3yo) in the 1m 3f handicap

Hopes N Dream absolutely loves it around Hamilton. The 6yo has course figures of 111711111. That’s 8 wins from 9 visits to the course including a last time out C&D win over useful yardstick Tangerine Trees.

Blaine is also entered in the same race but this former Gimcrack winner is a riskier betting proposition. He has failed to live up to expectations after winning his maiden and the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes as a 2yo.

Once rated 107 his mark has tumbled to 96 and he unseated his rider last time out. He is undoubtedly talented as shown on his one good run this year when 3rd of 20 in a good handicap at York behind Aetna and Baccarat.

It may be he saves his best for York (form figures 113) but it would be folly to dismiss his chances out of hand here. Keep To The Beat is still a maiden after 9 starts but ran his best race last time out when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at Beverley. He stepped up from a mile to 10f that day and the extra furlong may well suit.

Our final trainer to follow at Hamilton is Mrs Marjorie Fife. Her record with her runners at the course speaks for itself:

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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She is 2-2 this season at Hamilton and both those victorious horses return to the track on Friday.

7.10pm Mandalay King in the 6f handicap
9.10pm Camerooney in the 1m 1f handicap

Mandalay King is a 9yo now but he is still competitive at his given level. His overall course figures are 1723172241581. All four of his victories have come at class 5 or lower and he goes in the 6f class 5 handicap on Friday evening.

Camerooney is even older at 11 but he is another who loves it around Hamilton with two wins and a third place finish from three starts. Shirley Teasdale is booked to ride both and takes off a useful 5lbs which should see both horses competitive.

Finally, don’t forget we have previously highlighted (and profited from) Tom Dascombe’s runners at Haydock and the Godolphin 2yo runners at Newmarket trained by Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Both courses have meetings this Friday and Saturday so be sure to keep an eye out for their runners over the next two days.

Fit and Fancied Done For You!

On the last day of my guest spot here, I just want to sum up what's been said.

Firstly, I think we have come accross a phenomena, a relatively new trend, which the general betting public and the bookies have yet to catch onto. This is the growing ability of trainers to recuperate their horses in time for a winning run within a short period of time.

This is probably because of advances pioneered by other trainers, Martin Pipe in particular, such as swimming facilites, physio, all weather gallops, etc, and other things I wouldn't pretend to understand as i have no experience of training horses.

This is just my educated guess. All i know is an awful lot more try and an awful lot more succeed these days, and that is what is important for us from a betting point of view.

I have shown you how we devised two systems, one for the jumps, Fit and Fancied Jumpers, and another for the all-weather, The All Weather System. Both of these use, as their basis, knowledge of this relatively new phenomena.

The interesting thing about the Fit and Fancied Jumpers system is that it does so much better in hurdle races with one outstanding exception – handicap chases. As I have openly acknowledged, I am no horse expert. My forte is stats and what I have been able to learn about probability. But, and again this is an educated guess, I think 2 miles over fences must take more out of a horse than the same over hurdles and therefore a longer recovery time is necessary. In which case, how do we explain the success with the handicap chasers?

My theory, as I said in the ebook, is that these are the type of races where trainers are trying to land a gamble and therefore maybe the horse wasn't given too hard a race the time before.

If it won, maybe it won in a grade well below what it is capable of winning in. In short, it didnt have too hard a race last time and therefore didn't need much time to get over its exertions.

This may explain why the system doesn't do as well with horses in NOVICE handicap chases. Horses running in these are not so experienced and may take more out of themselves than is necessary by running too keen, jumping too extravagantly etc.

The All Weather System is completely straightforward and gave us 5/1 SP winner, SCRIBE, yesterday.

Now, the question is: having gained this knowledge, what are you going to do with it?

I am afraid that, in all likelihood, the answer for many readers is, nothing.

A few disciplined souls will be able to ignore life's distractions and will scour the Racing post each night, (the info for both systems is online by 6.30 – 7 each night), for the system selections.

They will be able to back the selections at early prices on the exchanges or at Best Odds Guaranteed, (BOG) the next morning – thus gaining a further advantage. But the vast majority will not put this new knowledge to use whilst others will try to use it but not always come up with the correct selections.

This series of articles has aroused some interest and a few people have emailed us to point out that they may not have the time or the discipline to look for the selections themselves.

Also there has been some inevitable mistakes in the selection process so that some have thanked us for winners that weren't selections, while others have complained about losers that weren't selections!

This has led some to ask whether we have considered providing an email service. The answer is, we already do.

We send an email each night – whether there are selections or not – between 7 – 8. Where there are selections you get the race and the name of the horse and we recommend backing them all at BOG.

The cost is £7.95 per month for each system, fully inclusive, ie, no taxes on top.

However, we have been persuaded by Dave and the Daily Punt team to make a special one-off offer to Daily Punt readers, for today only, of an email service for BOTH systems for just £12.95 per month.

You will surely pay for that out of the ability to get on at early prices. Click Here.

Those who take advantage of this one day offer will also receive a FREE copy of our ebook BACK TO THE FUTURE, which shows you how to back your selections in a novel way which changes around half your losers into non runners!

If you are interested in this option click here to secure your place now.

I hope you have enjoyed this series and will put what you have learned to good use.

Good luck in your future betting.

All the best,
John Cutts

Today's Selection

Newcastle 3.35 Lady of Verona – each way bet – 8/1 Bet 365 will hill paddy power

Oh Snow No Turf

Well my plans have gone all awry today.

I had a trainer trends type article all lined up for today and when I checked the declarations yesterday morning I had 11 potential selections to look at.

But this morning all the National Hunt meetings have been abandoned and we just have two All Weather meetings left.

So I've turned to my All Weather December form stats, which are useful when looking for a starting point for selections when no other significant info is to hand.

My list comes courtesy of Racing Ahead mag, which you can find in good newsagents.

From the list I have six trainers that I am keeping an eye on in December. But only one of those has a runner today and that is William Jarvis.

Jodies Jem 4.15 Kempton

Now when I only have one selection to look at I'm usually wary that I'm going to select something just because I have nothing else to go on.

But a quick look at Jodies Jem and I see it won a Class 6 Maiden last time out when a shade of odds on.

It is also well rated on RPR and Topseed.

The race looks to be tightly handicapped and the kind that I would expect to be wide open. But the market has gone for the Richard Hannon Emulating which had a hard race last time but is still a maiden.

Jodies Jem is stepping up from 7 furlong to 8 where it is unproven, but at a price of 10/1 with Paddy Power this looks to be a value bet to me and I will have a little each way interest today.

Hopefully we will have some National Hunt tomorrow with Taunton still looking ok at the moment.

Today's Selection

Kempton 4.15 Jodies Jem – each way at 10/1 Paddy Power

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