Tag Archives: Ralph Beckett

Early Season Trainers

Well yesterday blindly backing stall 2 at Pontefract made a big profit, but our selection who was out of stall 2 finished nowhere 🙁

But from 6 races Stall 2 had wins at 4/1, 1/1, 8/1 so a tenner on each race would have returned £160, £100 profit.

There was also a 2nd at 9/2.

The next meeting at Pontefract is on April 30th.

Last week we put up our early season trainers system and I've just seen that Kieran at Make Your Betting Pay has put up a similar post.

One of his trainers also features on our list, but he has two that aren't.

Kieran advices backing Roger Charlton trained horses in April and May and also Ralph Beckett charges.

Get the full story here http://makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.30 Southwell Kerbaaj – eachway bet – 18/1 Bet Victor, Sky Bet

Maiden Profits

A maiden is a race for horses that haven’t won before, full stop.

If only it was that simple.

There are rated maidens, auction maidens, median maidens, handicap, claiming and selling maidens, EBF maidens and apprentice maidens. Then there are juvenile maidens, 3yo only maidens, 3yo plus maidens and all age maidens.

Let's talk about 2 year old maidens first…

Richard Hannon has had over 300 juvenile winners since 2008 with a 17% strike rate and Mark Johnston has had over 150 with a 15% strike rate., but following their runners blindly would have seen you make substantial losses.

The trainer with the best strike rate in recent years is Saeed Bin Suroor, who has had 158 winners which equates to a 31% strike rate which is pretty amazing.

Thats for all runners in a 2 year old maiden since 2008.

Here are the full numbers.

Runners = 509
Winners = 158
Strike Rate = 31.04%
SP Profit = 78.10
SP ROI = 15.34%

So definitely you should be having a second look at Bin Suroor 2 year olds in Maidens. You can boost that profit considerably by only betting market leaders.

We have mentioned in previous posts that Ralph Beckett and Dandy Nichols also do well with their maidens.

I'll finish off today by saying that despite many people complaining that they don't like Maidens because there is no form and they cant judge the chances of runners that the market just before the off gets it right most of the time.

Looking at all Maidens over the same period from 2008 to date 60% of winners come from the 1st or 2nd favourite!

My thanks go to the Betting Insiders Club whose Race Classifications Report supplied a lot of the data for the above – Find out more about the Betting Insiders Club at http://bettinginsiders.com

Todays Selection courtesy of the Betting Insiders Club.

Yesterday after the deluge of rain the softened ground may not have suited Sacha Park who folded tamely towards the finish after looking dangerous in the final furlong.

For today we turn to the master of 3yo handicaps, Sir Mark Prescott, who runs Alwilda in the last at Sandown. The daughter of Hernando out of the classy Albanova won over a mile at Southwell as a juvenile and has been staying on over shorter trips on Polytrack in both starts this term. There is a strong chance that she can find improvement for this stiffer test of stamina on just her second run on grass.

Alwilda (2035 Sand) 9/4Betfred, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes.

2 Year Old Specialists

This weekend I've been looking through my library of racing and betting publications looking for systems and angles from previous years to see if they still hold.

Well I say library, it's actually a cardboard box that I keep in a cupboard!

I read an interesting piece in the July 2011 copy of the Betting Insiders Members Report about trainers who specialise or at least who are profitable with their juveniles.

So today I've checked out the stats for Ralph Beckett who does very well with his two year olds.

When concentrating on a particular trainer data can be limited with sample sizes small, so it can pay to just work out general rules that will get you a shortlist of horses that you can apply some form study to, to find your selections.

The headline figures for the Ralph Beckett 2 year olds back to 2003 are as follows…

Runs = 1130
Wins = 166
Strike Rate = 14.69%
SP Profit = 205.46
SP ROI = 18.18%

So it would seem that it's always worth paying attention to the Beckett 2 year olds.

Those numbers can be improved if we discard the runs in Nurseries (2 year old handicaps)

Runs = 919
Wins = 136
Strike Rate = 14.8%%
SP Profit = 210.96
SP ROI = 22.95%

Although the above stats look good over the long term and look like a good starting point for a profitable system, the recent years show a loss. This will be because the Beckett runners are now very popular with backers and although the strike rate holds up, the horse are over bet and there is no profit at SP.

One area where the prices are still holding up and that is still looking profitable is with the All Weather runners.

If we look at the last 5 years for All Weather 2 year olds in non handicaps each year has been profitable and the overall results are…

Runs = 136
Wins = 37
Strike Rate = 27.21%%
SP Profit = 98.29
SP ROI = 72.27%

Ralph Beckett has runners at Lingfield (AW) on Wednesday.

Today's Selection

2.30 Ayr West Leake Hare – win bet – 13/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Boylesport

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