Tag Archives: rewards

Salisbury Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Salisbury meeting.

Don't forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

Our Friday column was on the money last week with Nunthorpe winner Sole Power @7/2 and Ebor winner Mutual Regard @25/1. Hopefully a few of you were on. This week we take a look at Salisbury and some of the profitable trainers to make a note of. We also highlight a bang in-form trainer who looks worth following at Chester on Saturday.
First to Salisbury and standing head and shoulders above the rest is Lady Jane Cecil who continues the great work of her late husband. Since 2010 the Cecil yard has had 12 winners from 29 runners for a level stakes profit of £11.57 at the Wiltshire track. Most of the winners have come in non-handicap races and if we concentrate on their 3yo and 4yo non-handicap runners then the figures are 8-17 at a strike rate (SR) of 47% and a level stakes profit of £13.08. Six of their last nine runners at the track have won.

PD Evans has sent out the highest number of winners at the track with 19 in the last 5 seasons at a strike rate of 16%. That strike rate increases to 23% (12-52) in non-handicap races. If we take out his 2yo runners then he is 6-12 (SR 50%) and a level stakes profit of £30.50 with his older horses (3yo and 3yo+) in non-handicap races.

Finally, David Simcock does not send many runners to the track but in the last 5 seasons his non-handicap runners are 5-15 (SR 33.33%) and a level stakes profit of £8.98. Our top three trainers have no entries today but there are two more meetings in September so look out for their runners at the track in the next two weeks.

We have a great card at my local track Chester on Saturday and one trainer I want on-side is Andrew Balding. In the last 5 seasons he is 24-101 (SR 24%) and shows a healthy level stakes profit of £51.13. This season alone he is 8-18 (SR 44%) at the Roodee for a profit of £25.38. Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy have formed a tremendous partnership at the course in 2014, combining for 6 wins from 12 rides and a profit of £21.38. Andrew Balding has the following horses entered at Chester tomorrow:

2.20 Dungannon (5f handicap)
3.30 Whiplash Willie 1m 5f
4.40 Cosmic Ray (7f maiden)

Chester has the biggest draw bias of any course in the UK so we certainly want be drawn low for all races up to 7 ½ f. We have previously highlighted the fact Franny Norton rides Chester as well as anybody and he has a good book of rides on Saturday. They are B Fifty Two (2.20pm), Heavy Metal (2.55pm), Special Meaning (3.30pm), Enlace (4.05pm) and Sea Silk (4.40pm). B Fifty Two and Heavy Metal both look to have a decent chance which would be enhanced further by a nice, low draw.

On a final word, betting on trainer stats is a long term strategy that takes time and patience to reap the rewards. For example we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at York back in July. At the time of writing he had sent 11 runners to the track in 2014 and all 11 had lost. The following day he sent out two winners @4/1 and 9/2 and followed that up with 3 winners at the Ebor festival @12/1, 20/1 and 8/1.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Salisbury Lady Crossmar 11/4

Premier League Football Tips

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

Premier League Preview

With the excitement of the FA Cup now firmly behind us we once more focus on the Premier League race this weekend. All of the top four clubs will be looking to capitalise on facing weaker opposition and hope to pull away from the chasing pack. As always seems to be the way in this great league one of more of them is likely to fail in that pursuit and this Saturday I have a feeling that Jose Mourinho and his Chelsea men have the hardest task.

Chelsea play Everton in the early afternoon televised clash and although in previous years their form at the Bridge has been superb they do have an air of vulnerability about them this season. Roberto Martinez has managed to turn his squad of players into an effective but not consistent side and they will need to be at their very best to match the Blues. Although big favourites to win I have a feeling that these sides will nullify each other and a draw will be a fair result.

This would of course open up the top spots for those just behind them in the most exciting of title chases in recent memory. Both Arsenal and Manchester City play in rare 3pm Saturday kick offs and they will be hoping to jump on any mistakes made by Chelsea. The Gunners have what on paper looks to be an easy tie against Sunderland. The form of the Black Cats has improved enormously over recent months as Gus Poyet gets his feet under the table – 3 wins and a draw in the last 5 games is testament to that – but will this be enough to stop the juggernaut that is Arsenal? I suspect not and with Arsene Wenger’s men dispatching lower league opponents with aplomb this season I expect a 3 or 4 goal margin and a stroll for the gunners.

As for City they need Chelsea to lose and Arsenal to fail to pick up all three points if they are to top the table this weekend. With home form that is just truly stunning this season most of us would expect a trouncing for Stoke but I would utter a few words of caution. They are one of only four clubs this season who have managed to keep a clean sheet against City after their scoreless draw back in September and City have failed to register a goal in 180 Premier League minutes now. If I had to predict a result it would still be a heavy loss for Stoke but maybe just maybe they could get something from the game.

The last of the top four Liverpool play on Sunday and have what on paper is an easy match with Swansea. Luis Suarez has now failed to net in three games and with his form as good as it is I suspect that he will punish a club severely very soon. This could be Garry Monk and his not so merry men this weekend. A brace or hat trick from Suarez in a convincing win for the Reds looks likely.

One last match that seems good value for taking candy from the bookies is Crystal Palace against a resurgent and fired up Manchester United. Although in poor form of late I just can’t see Messrs Rooney and Van Persie failing to run riot in South London and rack up a cricket score. Palace are playing better football of late but that is when faced with less tough opposition. United will be too strong for them and I expect a good away win.

Double Tip this weekend

I fancy Manchester clubs both United and City to win convincingly and reap some fine rewards for punters. If you’re feeling a little more adventurous I’d add Arsenal and Liverpool to the mix for a nice little foursome.

Manchester City + Manchester United both to win gives odds of 1.94

Manchester City + Manchester United + Arsenal + Liverpool all 4 to win gives odds of 3.36

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Today's Racing Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Exeter 4.20 Wilton Milan – win bet – 7/2 bet 365, Bet Victor

Weekend Football Double

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and tips from Tipster Warehouse…

FA Cup 5th Round

Top flight football this weekend comes courtesy of the FA Cup 5th Round as the Premier League takes a short break. The relative minnows left in the final sixteen will be buoyed by the fact that the “Big Four” clubs left in the competition face off against each other in two potentially thunderous clashes. As Wigan showed last season it is possible for a smaller club to win big in the FA Cup but only if the draw is kind to you.

The first tie of the weekend sees Sunderland take on this seasons surprise package Southampton. The Saints have had a fantastic season thus far and even though they have tailed off a little of late they will still fancy their chances of progressing. However, since Gus Poyet grasped the reins at the Stadium of Light the Black Cats form has improved dramatically.

They have won six games already in 2014 including the superb despatch of Manchester United in the League Cup semi final and they really seem to ramp up the passion in the Cup matches. I expect Saturday to be no different and with generous odds of 12/5 available for the home side it makes them well worth a punt.

Current Cup holders Wigan Athletic may have succumbed to relegation last season but they will have been overjoyed to be paired with Cardiff City in this round and a very real opportunity to retain their crown. Although the Welshmen are the higher ranked side they are in a poor run of form and have won just once in the league in their last ten matches. Wins over Newcastle and Bolton in the FA Cup cannot mask their lack of confidence at the moment and I have a sneaky suspicion that the Latics will take this tie possibly after a replay.

In the all Championship clash Sheffield Wednesday face Charlton. Both clubs have performed heroics to reach this stage of the Cup given they are both languishing in the nether reaches of their League. The Owls are in 17th place but Charlton are currently occupying a relegation spot and both sets of supporters will secretly be harbouring thoughts that an early exit may not be a bad thing.

Although the glory of the Cup is a wonderful thing they may be more concerned with retaining their league status and not making the dreaded drop to League One. This is a tight one to call but I’d favour the home side to make that advantage pay and for the Northerners to squeak into the quarter finals.

The early evening televised match sees Jose Mourinho take his Chelsea side up to Manchester to face a City side that are in an incredible run of home form. City have won 17 of 19 home games this season and knocked in a paltry 72 goals in those ties. But crucially for Jose and his boys one of those losses was a matter of days ago against Chelsea. Has he got their number?

Can he get the tactics right once more and cause an upset? Personally I think that the Citizens learn quickly and they will not make the same mistakes in this match. Their scoring prowess is nothing short of amazing and I’d favour them to progress in an absolute corker of a match.

The first of Sunday’s games is an all Premier League clash featuring Everton and Swansea. Roberto Martinez had until recently looked like he had turned the Toffeemen into potential title challengers but they have in recent weeks proven to lack the stamina to keep up a sustained assault and the FA Cup may prove to be their best chance of picking up some silverware this season.

Martinez of course was in charge of Wigan last season as they won the Cup and he will be hoping that his experience will enable his side to move into the next round with a minimum of fuss. The Swans are in turmoil at the moment and took the surprising decision to ditch their manager the likeable Dane Michael Laudrup in favour of the inexperienced Garry Monk. In my opinion the bookies are being overly generous in their view that Everton will win this one. With odds of 11/2 available on a Swans win it could be worth a cheeky pound or two in what is don’t forget a Cup tie.

The lowest team still in the competition are League One strugglers Sheffield United in what must be for their fans a bittersweet experience this season. The FA Cup is great fun but if they are honest they would far rather an extra 20 points in the league than a place in the quarter finals. Forest are riding high in the race for a place in the Premier League and I expect them to have more drive and desire to reach the next round than their Yorkshire counterparts. Odds of 13/10 in favour of Billy Davies and his men could prove to be like taking candy from a baby.

The big match on Sunday gives an early opportunity for Arsenal to gain revenge for their recent mauling at the hands of Liverpool in the League. Even though the Gunners are battling for the title at the moment they face a side in stunning form and with Arsene Wenger’s men in poor form when playing other big clubs it could just be that Brendan Rogers could get his tactics right and take this tie.

As I mentioned earlier the smaller clubs will see this seasons competition as a great chance to take some silverware but this also applies to the big four as well and with two of Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea definitely eliminated this round those that can remain could reap some rich rewards. This should be a cracking game and I can see Luis Suarez and his men taking this – possibly after a replay.

The last tie of this round is played on Monday evening and features Premier League Hull City as they travel south to Brighton. The Seagulls have won their last four home matches and the Tigers face a difficult challenge if they are to move forwards.

This one to me is too close to call as home advantage and good form should count for just as much as playing in the Premier League. I anticipate that this match may turn out to be an old fashioned blood and thunder, throw everything but the kitchen sink at your opponents type of game which will prove exciting for the neutral and could see the home side upset the odds and progress.

Top Tips

A double for me with Sunderland (12/5) and Swansea (11/2) giving potentially great returns.

This double pays at just over 21/1.

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Racing Selection

8.05 Wolverhampton Brownsville – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365

Referee Bias Football Profits

We finish of our week of Betting Insiders features with an article from Jakub Gawel who is one of the Betting Insiders football betting and trading correspondants and who shares systems and strategies in the Betting Insiders report every month.

Here's Jakub…

This month I shared my research into the influence referees can have on the outcome of football games and detailed stats that demonstrate that some refs favour certain teams.

These biases may be unintentional and let's assume they are but nevertheless they exist and we can profit from them.

Today I'm going to share one particular bias that I have uncovered which featured in my Betting Insiders article this month.

Human factor – If you think about football refereeing as a job, it seems to be a very lonely one, often being abused verbally and even physically at times by players, managers and fans.

At the end of the day, a ref is a human being who has feelings, likes and dislikes. The ref should always remain fair and unbiased but is it safe to say, that even they will have their most/least favourite clubs/stadiums.

This quote was taken from one of the interviews with professional refs, which were supposed to promote this choice of career.

After reading this statement, I checked the League stats for Everton when they played under Marriner.

According to Andre Marriner, 38, who joined the elite list of Premier League refs in 2004, the rewards are manifest.

‘For me there’s nothing better than being a referee,’ he says. ‘I was at Everton the other day, one of my favourite grounds, and the atmosphere was amazing.

Running out of the tunnel, the sound of the crowd, the compactness of it all, it makes the hairs stand up on the back of the neck and there is nowhere else I feel more alive.’

On checking the stats I found that Everton lost only 4 out of their 21 matches under Marriner, 15 of those took place at Goodison Park (a bit many you would think) and Everton lost only 2 (against Newcastle and Blackburn).

But nothing interesting in terms of penalty and red card favour.

However, it’s noticeable that the Toffees were on average booked less often than their opposition.

But looking at my stats, Mr Marriner is the ‘luckiest’ match official for the team from the blue half of Liverpool.

Looking at Everton and other refs’ stats, there are some match officials who aren’t very ‘lucky’ for the Toffees, for example Martin Atkinson (19 Premier matches and only 4 wins for Everton) or Mike Jones (1 win in 10 matches).

Whether it’s just a fluke or a strong trend, it can’t be ignored when it comes to betting or trading.

This is just one trend that I uncovered, but there are a whole host of factors effected by the allocated referee.

Have you ever heard a manager or pundit state that bad penalty decisions even themselves over the course of a season?

My penalties league table strongly suggests otherwise. Some high profile teams have many more penalties awarded for them than against.

And for some of the less glamourous Premier League teams it unfortunately doesnt come close to evening out.

The influence of the referee on a game is a huge factor that you should consider in your betting and one that is under-utilised by the majority, which means value for us.

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Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Font 1730 Aikideau (BetV 2/1, Gen 7/4)

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