Tag Archives: Risk Tipster

Well Handicapped Runners

I'm still spending time reading my Betting Insiders back issues and I'm still looking for an angle to profit from flat handicaps.

With that in mind I was interested to read an article by Mark Foley about trainers who appear to run their horses over the wrong distance to get them well handicapped.

The trainer that was the main feature of the article is Luca Cumani.

The basic idea that Mark investigated was the performance of Cumani charges on their fourth starts when they are upped in distance.

And more specifically when they run over 8 furlongs or further this time.

The logic of this is that a horse that has 3 poor runs will have their official rating lowered to represent those performances. Then when it runs at a more appropriate distance it will be well handicapped.

This is the kind of angle where it's hard to get a large volume of qualifying races but over the last 10 year there are 146 races to look at.

Here are the stats using the Horse Race Base Distance Move factor.

Runners = 146
Winners = 37
Strike Rate = 25.34%
SP Profit = 48.55
SP ROI = 33.25%

If you like to research winning methods I think there is profit to be found from researching other trainers that use a similar approach.

Feel free to share your findings in the comments, below.

Today's Selection courtesy of No Risk Tipster

7:45 Bangor Peachey Moment – win bet – 9/4 Boylesport

Handicap Draws

Did you get involved at Chester on Friday?

You will recall that we said stalls 1 and 2 were favoured, particularly over 5 furlongs, 6 furlongs, 1 mile 3 and 1 mile 4.

The results on Friday for the two 5 furlong races were a win for stall 1 at 4/1 and a win for stall 2 at 7/4.

And there was a race at 1 mile 4 furlongs which was won by the stall 1 horse at 7/2.

Saturday saw a 9/1 winner from stall 1 in the 6 furlong handicap, with stall 1 or 2 placing in the other two qualifying races.

Not everybody appreciates the info though, I got this email before racing…

are you taking the pi** my name is ******, i was born in curzon park west 48 years ago which overlooks the roodeye ive watched every race at chester since i could walk,and your trying to give me advice about chester race course,only 2 jockeys could ever ride chester and master it,the great lester piggot,and unbelievably alex greaves.no other jockey ive ever seen could bounce out a horse drawn low over 5 furlongs like them two,and todays jockeys havent a clue,you have to be whipping the horse out of the stalls,so thanks but no thanks,and please take me off your mailing list *******

I've added the asterisks but otherwise that's the whole mail as I received it 🙂

That aside I picked up an excellent tip for researching draw biases over the weekend.

Actually it was one of those ideas that's so obvious I can't believe I hadnt already thought of it myself, doh.

Basically the advice was that when researching biases regarding aspects of the course or conditions then do your research on handicaps, because in theory all runners should be equally matched. So any bias should be more prominent.

So for example with the draw if the horse in the stall you are looking at is a no hoper then his run will skew the statistics. But if all runners are handicapped to win then the results should be a better representation of the facts.

The next Chester meeting is on August 4th and Pontefract is this Friday.

Today's Selection courtesy of No Risk Tipster (Try for 1 month free)

Wolverhampton 9.20 Glenridding – win bet – 4/1 Boylesport

No Risk Tipster

Some readers noticed that yesterday's winning tip came from the No Risk Tipster service and asked me what I know about the service.

It is a somewhat unique approach and it works like this…

You register your email address with No Risk Tipster.

They then email you selections everyday for 30 days.

Each day you get a win bet, place bet and a lay bet.

Then after 30 days they ask you if you want to continue, if you do you pay either £10, £20 or £30 depending what you can afford (and I guess what you think the service is worth).

Once you pay you get the tips for the next 30 days after which they ask if you want to pay again.

I've only just started following the service so as yet I can't really say whether they are profitable or not.

But as they used to say on the telly The Price is Right so with no risk it must be worth a sign up – http://norisktipster.co.uk

If you've used the service and have any feedback please let us know in the comments below.

Today's Selection on Channel 4
Newmarket 1.40 Boite – each way bet – 13/2 Bet Victor, Sporting Bet

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