Tag Archives: September.

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Performance Review

Today I'm going to have a little catch up on some of the angles we've looked at recently.

Starting off with September Trainers.

You'll remember on the 3rd of this month we published a list of trainers to follow in September.

After 11 days we have had 20 bets, 3 wins and a profit at industry SP of 1.5 points.

The Betfair SP profit is a slightly juicier 4.55 after commission which is a 22% ROI.

Mark Foley's Gordon Elliott angle got of to a cracking start with a 7/1 winner on the day we published and 3 winners from 4 on the second day.

My stats may have steered readers away from the odds on selections but either way great profit was made and this is one to follow going forward.

The next Perth meeting is on the 24th and 25th of September.

Finally it is Chester tomorrow and although the low draws will be bet in the sprints you'll remember that our previous articles have shown that horses drawn 1 and 2 have a definite advantage on the 11 and 12 furlong races also.

This advantage is overlooked or not known by the majority of punters and is a source of value bets for us.

This article goes into the detail http://dailypunt.com/chester-draw-bias-2/

Today's Selection

Chepstow 4.00 Romance Story – win bet – 9/2 Betfred

Profitable Flat Trainers

So following on from yesterdays column today I'm going to try and find us some profitable flat trainers to follow in September.

So my initial thoughts are that I want trainers who have been profitable recently, so I'm looking at data for the last three years.

Turns out there are a lot of trainers that have made level stakes profits in September over the last three years.

My second thought was, lets try and find some that have been profitable in each of the last three years.

Also to make it more worthwhile I only looked at trainers who had, had 50 or more runs over the three years and who had an overall ROI at level stakes of 15% or greater.

This was more of a challenge.

I only found one trainer who made a return on investment in each of the three years and that was Jamie Osborne, who actually made more than 30% in each year.

I've also added to my little watch list Alan Bailey, who was profitable in 2011 and 2013 but had a one point loss in 2012.

And John Ryan who was profitable in 2011 and 2013 but finished level in 2012.

Following these three trainers over the past three years would have given the following results.

Bets = 231
Wins = 36
Strike Rate = 15.5%
Profit at iSP = 98.08
Return on Investment at iSP = 42.4%

The strike rate is pretty low, so we can expect long losing runs but the ROI is strong!

I'm going to follow these three trainers this month and see how they did at the end of the month.

Today's Selection

Bath 2.50 Little – win bet Boylesports

Trial Offer £7.99

Tomorrow we have Nick Hardman back with a look at Friday and Saturdays racing at Newmarket.

Fingers crossed he can build on the huge profits he pointed us at last Friday (winners at 33/1 and 9/1)

Today I want to tell you about an offer for a new tipster service that I dont think you should miss out on and update you on our big priced winner system that we shared last week.

The new tipster service is from a guy called Gary Poole.

Gary has been posting his tips for free on Twitter for the past year and has had some huge touches (@bookiesenemyno1).

He has now launched his own service and is offering a full months access for just £7.99.

To get that goto http://bookiesenemyno1.com/

The Big Priced Winners system, you'll recall, looks at horses that won last time out at huge odds.

They had to win at 25/1 or bigger and by a length or more.

In the text I said that we should only back when the horses last race was on the Flat Turf, but I didn't include that rule in the actual system.

So just to clarify the rules are…

Todays Race is on Flat Turf and it's in the main season May to September.

The horse is starting at odds of between Even money and 12/1

In it's last run the horse won by a length or more at odds of 25/1 or bigger.

These rules give results of…

Runs = 463
Wins = 92
Strike Rate = 19.87%
Profit at iSP = 124.37
Return on Investment =  26.86%

Today's Selection

Bath 8.40 Secure Cloud – eachway bet – 10/1 Bet 365

 

 

 

 

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