Tag Archives: shame

Favourite Average Price Rise

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorseBot.com

In the last couple or articles we have been looking at the results from an interactive test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Part of this test is also to discover if it is better to be on all the selections or to stop at the first winner of the day.

I picked 220 or above as my rating figure (see later why this may still be to low).

It hasn’t been the best of weeks for this number and it was only because of a 6.3 winner a couple of days ago that we are still showing any profit for this month.

This is a bit of a shame as it was a lot more positive last week…

…But that’s racing for you.

I am a statistical type of person so I don’t like to blame the weather.

And I do know this…

Favourites average prices tend to drop slightly in the winter.

I am not sure why but it could be that there are less races so they are more heavily backed than they normally would be.

But a quick check on the averages over the last couple of years shows that from the height in the summer of 3.5 (sometimes higher) in the winter this can drop to around 3.1.

And although the strike rate of this particular system has dropped off slightly…

…The amount of favourites winning is slightly better than the norm this month.

Which again, strangely, seems to happen around the winter months.

But back to the system test…

I am still not convinced that SAW is the best way to go but it is going to take more testing to actually make that decision.

If you crank the ratings figure up to 240 then things look a little better for all selections and it may be my choice of 220 was still a little low.

This will probably be my last report about this test for a few weeks.

Unless something amazing happens!

You can see the results from this test and get the daily selections here.

The Grey Horse Bot


Today's Selection

2:00 Lingfield Ershaad – win bet 5/6 Bet Victor

Road to Cheltenham – Cross Country Handicap

Before I get onto some more Cheltenham analysis and another clever angle from Mark Foley, I just want to remind you about a couple of things.

First off if you're not following the two free systems we gave out last week, why not. Like any betting strategy they don't win every day but long term they will return profit.

Yesterday Fit and Fancied Jumpers gave CAT 4.10 SHANGANI – WON 7/4F SP (3/1 early price)

All Weather system gave WOL 5.00 RUN IT TWICE – WON 10/3 (4/1 early).

You can still get the selections mailed to you for just £12.95 per month – Click Here

Secondly Each Way FX. I'm no Forex expert, but I've been sent a preview guide of this method and it seems pretty straightforward and more importantly highly profitable.

There have been some interesting free videos put out by the Each way FX team and you can still see them – Click Here

Even if you know nothing about Forex you really should listen to this guy.

Ok, so today I wanted to share more insight from Mark Foley of Trainer Trends, mainly because if I wait the price might disappear…

Why Balthazar King will probably have an unfair advantage in the Cross Country(CX) Handicap.

King Balthaazar 7/1 Cross Country.(Bet 365, Paddy Power, Will Hill, BetFred)

If you've ever watched a Cross Country race at Cheltenham you'll know that the configuration of the course makes the maze at Hampton Court look like a doddle in comparison.

Cock ups occur more often than not, most famously in the December trial last year when the 7 leaders all took the wrong course.

Jockeys are handed long bans (two 12 day bans last December) and this acts as a deterrent to the top jocks running in these races at Cheltenham.

I am convinced that the reason Balthazar king won this race at the festival last year was because Richard Johnson was in the saddle. Johnson and Dennis O'Regan were the only two top drawer jocks in a festival race, Amateur and Conditional races apart that just doesn't happen.

Philip Hobbs is the one British trainer to take these races seriously and broke the Irish strangle hold on the race last year. Balthazar King should be even stronger as a 9 yo this year and Richard Johnson will be riding the course for the 9th time and with wins on Lacdoudal and King Balthazar, looks a class above one or two of the jocks who will be riding on the day.

Balthazar King is currently available at 7/1 with most firms at the moment, it's just a shame that none of the layers are offering NRNB at the moment.

Today's Selection

Ayr 1.50 Welsh Bard – Each way bet – 8/1 Bet365

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