Tag Archives: sites

250 points profit, Three Week Free Trial

Today I want to tell you about a very special service that I've been using to find a lot of winners recently and today you can try it for free for 21 days.

The numbers in the headline are from an actual live service called Stat of the Day. As the name suggests, this is a one-a-day service with a strong statistical background. Since it started in November 2011, the service has registered 292 wins from 1031 bets (better than 28% winners), and has returned a profit for its readers of £2,505 to £10 level stakes.

Those aren’t fictional figures either. Rather, every single bet has been recorded and tracked on site… and followed and backed by over 650 loyal members.

Anyway, like I said, I’m telling you about it today because you can put this brilliant info to work for you for the next three weeks, gratis.Continue Reading

Guest Tips – Gary Poole

As you read this I will be loading up the van for my summer holidays, I hope I havent missed the sun!

While I'm away I have a number of posts lined up for you and hopefully my holiday relief manages to deliver those to you smoothly.

I have also arranged for a guest tipster to provide you with a tip each day, so do check in to the homepage everyday.

That guest tipster is non other than the Bookies Enemy No 1 Gary Poole.

Gary has been making waves (and big profits) for over a year now via twitter and other proofing sites and more recently has launched a tipping service which is making some huge profits.

Gary is a big priced value bettor and hopefully he will hit some big winners over the next two weeks.

If you want all of Gary's bets then go to his website at http://bookiesenemyno1.com where you can register for his tipping service.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

Injaz (1700 Kemp) – 8/1 EW Bet365/Betfred

Creating Betting Systems

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Betting systems really fascinate me especially horse racing ones.

It’s probably the main reason I have been creating them for over 12 years.

There are plenty of ideas about how to find winners (or losers) and creating systems is not always the most popular solution.

Many people believe the only way to actually pick a horse to follow in a race is to judge it against every other runner. Look for reasons why one selection has a better chance than all the others.

Although I do agree with this idea it’s not an easy thing to do and those that are most successful at it have spent a lot of time analyzing races and honing their skills.

Systems still take time to research, create and test but once you find something that appears profitable it can become a lot easier and quicker to get your daily selections.

And as I prefer automation it stands to reason this will be my favourite way of finding winners.

Anyway I thought over the next 3 articles I would give you an insight into how this “nerds” brain works (hmm not to sure you want to know) when he is trying to develop a system.

The first thing you are going to need is results.

There are plenty of sites about which allow you to analyse past data to see if you can find a way of picking winners.

Even our Grey Horse Bot members have access to our own growing archive of 230,000 + runs.

I have probably mentioned this before (I tend to repeat myself) that you must remember when you use past data it may contain information that you wouldn’t have known about until either in-play or after the event.


I tend to mention “number of runners” as an example.

Until the actual off, we have no way of knowing how many runners actually started the race.

SP and BSP are not available until in-play so you can only use these as a guide to the profitability of a system.

Until you actually test the system you will have no idea if you can actually get anywhere near to the profit you were expecting.

One of the questions I tend to get a lot is 
“Where do you start? How do you come up with the ideas for research?”

It’s a good question…

I tend to have 3 main ways of finding an idea.

Other peoples ideas.
Things I have noticed
Rating systems.


Other peoples ideas

Nope I don’t mean steal someone else’s system. 

What interest me is that sometimes in a forum, blog post, article or just during a conversation someone may mention a small triaval fact like…

“Beaten favourites do well when…”

Or

“Have you ever looked at 2 year olds on a AW running for the first time”

Or

“I have heard 4th LTO doing really well at this course….”

You get the idea.

I normally write these ideas down and check them out later.

Normally you end up finding out that there isn’t any profit in the idea or that there was just a trend that someone may have noticed that didn’t last long.

In next weeks article I will look at the other 2 points and

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.40 Yarmouth Authorized Too – win bet – 15/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

In Running Delusion!

Today we have a guest article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

1.09 in running just won’t work…

Hi

Every so often we get an influx of support questions about betting in-play and the issues people are getting when they are trying to get matched at 1.09 or whatever the latest fad is regarding this idea.

This idea has been going around in different forms since Betfair began and is based around getting matched as often as you can on the horse that looks like it will win the race.

The normal explanation is that you get on the first runner that drops below a certain price.

It’s started in the early days of getting matched at 1.01 or 1.02 gradually it has moved out to 1.09 or somewhere close.

On paper the ideas may sound feasible but in practice it really doesn’t work that well and here is why…

The problem lies with Betfair’s matching policy.

If you put a “back” bet into the market at 1.09 then only 3 things can happen.

1. You get matched at 1.09
2. You don’t get matched at all.
3. You get matched higher than 1.09.

You get matched at 1.09

If you are lucky and as soon as you put your bet into the market Betfair has enough money on the lay side to match your bet, you will get matched at 1.09.


You don’t get matched at all.

Betfair will not match a back bet under the price you asked for, so if the price has moved past 1.09 IE it has continued shortening you will not get matched.

You get matched higher than 1.09

Betfair’s policy allows them to match a back bet at a higher price than you asked for. This is how the exchange works if they couldn’t do this then Betfair wouldn’t exist.

So if the price drifts because the horse no longer looks like a winner then you will get matched at the higher price.

So with the above in mind let me show you how this idea is flawed.

You are sitting there watching the screen or running a bot that is set to put a bet into the market either on the first runner to hit 1.09 or a pre determined named runner.

The runner hits 1.09 and you place your bet into the market.

So our first assumption is that this runner is likely to win the race because it has hit 1.09.

If it is winning the race (and a lot of people will be watching live at the course checking this) then two things will be happening….

1. All the people out there using a similar strategy will be putting as much money into the market as they can.

2. Many traders will be trying to offset an earlier lay bet.

If this horse is looking like it will win the race that price of 1.09 won’t be there for long…Probably less than a second.

So if you’re doing this manually your probably be too late and even bots may not be quick enough.

The biggest issue will be that Betfair won’t have enough money to match at 1.09 and because they can not match your back bet under 1.09, then you will end up with an “unmatched” bet.

But then we have the other side…

Again we see the price go under 1.09 and we are at the same scenario as before except this time something happens on the course and suddenly our selection is no longer winning.

So the opposite starts to happen and the layers get into the market and probably a lot of traders.

Before we know it the price goes from 1.09 to 1.2 or higher and you are just in line to get matched as soon as Betfair can.

In theory this could be as high as 999 but it doesn’t matter it is over 1.09 so you have been matched on a runner you weren’t expecting. (A runner that no longer looks like winning)

The real point is that you are going to find it easier to get matched on a runner that has hit 1.09 and then goes on to lose, than you will on one that goes on to win.

The complaint we always get from people who do not understand the way Betfair works is that you were matched higher than 1.09.

Yep and that will happen a lot because that’s the way Betfair works!

Just a little more information…

First of all if a runner goes to 1.09 then that would have been your selection. It doesn’t matter what price you get matched at after that, unless your runner goes onto win then you lose your stake.

The point is (according to the rules of the system you are following) the runner did hit 1.09 at some stage so it was a selection.

Secondly if you stick to 1.09 then you probably won’t get matched often enough to make the idea viable.

Thirdly I am sorry to say but I know of people who have created very specialized software to follow this idea.

I believe many of these people also have people at the tracks feeding them information or they have a connection that lets them see the race live.

There are only two ways you may get this idea to work.

When your selections hits 1.09 you put the bet into the market at 1.01 and see how often you get matched and at what price and see if it works.


You put a bet into the market wait a second and then cancel. You either got matched or didn’t but at least you may not have wasted a bet on a runner that ended up losing.

As I said at the beginning on paper the idea seems as if it will work but in practice it is a different matter.

Still some sites still insist on selling this strategy as “easy money”.

I don’t agree.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.35 Goodwood 7 Moonraker – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet 365

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