Tag Archives: stallion trends

How to Make Money Betting

Today I'm going to do a bit of a brain dump on the ways I make money from betting and hopefully cover off a lot of the questions I get asked regularly.

As always if you have opinions on anything I mention or you totally disagree with what I say then you can express yourself in the comments below.

So I'm only going to talk about horse racing betting today, I'll cover other sports and opportunities another day.

Working out the form on every race: I don't work out form in the traditional sense. I know people who do but it takes over their lives. They can spend hours on a single race and they end up as boring obsessives IMHO.

So what are the alternatives?

To my mind everything that works is a betting system!

I know as soon as I write that some people will be ready to tell me that it's impossible to win with systems.

But there are different types of system and people define them in different ways.

It is unlikely that you will make long term profit with a simple set of 4 or 5 rules that direct you to a selection.

And to my mind if your system is based upon the Racing Post betting forecast then it misses the point of finding value bets totally because you need to be finding horses that the Racing Post has overlooked if you want value.

Although there is a system doing the rounds at the moment based on backing 2nd and 3rd favourites that just keeps making money, time will tell if that can continue.

No when I talk about a system I'm talking in the business sense of a process that points you towards potential winners but that still requires some judgement or common sense.

A good example of the type of thing I'm talking about is Mark Foley's Trainer Trends.

Essentially what Mark is doing is analysing the habits of trainers.

Everybody has habits and we repeat those habits over and over again. If something works for us once we tend to do it again.

So Mark researches these habits from previous years and then looks for similar situations for the same trainer. That's his system and then he adds some judgement (looks at ratings etc) to make sure the horse has some sort of chance to finalise his selections.

I got an email the other day from somebody who had applied some complicated statistical analysis to Mark's selections and the result was that statistically there was a 90% chance that Mark's past performance (60 points up since the start of the flat) would continue.

90%! I don't even understand the maths but I know that means Mark's methods work.

Other things that work…

Identifying horses that have been harshly treated by the handicapper.

There are a lot of horses that just cannot win off of their current handicap. But they are good horses and over time they will return to a mark that they can win off of. And they will surprise a lot of punters and will win off of big prices.

As you know I'm working on a method to identify these via an automated method. I'm not there yet. But if you want to spend the time going through the days handicaps looking for horses that are back to a winning mark you will make money.

Identifying horses that have run well without winning.

Royal Ascot is a recent example of where you could have found future winners. There were horses that were drawn such that they just couldnt win and jockeys that made bad judgements (or were in impossible positions) as to where they should run on the course and ruined the chances of their mounts.

These horses should be identified and followed and profits will follow.

There are some hugely skilled people in race watching and once you are good at this you can land some huge priced winners.

Breeding

You may have noticed that a few of our selections on this page this month were un-raced two year olds. That's because I have done research on which sires produce horses that win at two and under what conditions.

Identifying stallion trends can lead to profits.

Of course if you do all of the above you will run out of time, that's why I rely on other people to find a lot of the selections I bet. And you should to, bet selections from your own methods along with the selections from a few trusted sources.

That's all I have time for today, tell me what you think in the comments.

Today's Selection

Newcastle 5.00 San Cassiano – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

 

 

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