Tag Archives: stalls

Football and Racing Tips

We had a big win with our football bet with £113.18 returned for our £11 stake. Hopefully we can build on that with this weeks perm.

As well as our football perm we have a horse from Peter Hawkeye and don't forget we had tips posted yesterday for Wetherby and Santa Anita and a football bet posted on Thursday which plays out today.

First up let's get started with Peter Hawkeye…
(You can join Hawkeye Tips on a 1 month trial for just £7.99 here http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye )

Nameitwhatyoulike 4.15 Newmarket caught my eye when unlucky at Thirsk the time before last. He nearly came down that day when starting to make a run and only just failed.

Last time out he was gunned out of the stalls in a big field race over C&D and not surprisingly dropped away.

If given a more patient ride today and in a smaller field he should be competitive of what looks a winnable mark at 8’1

Peter

Now onto our football perm supplied by The Alternative Punters Syndicate.
(Try the TAPS racing and football service for a full month for free here http://dailypunt.com/taps )

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
LIVERPOOL
IPSWICH
PRESTON
SHREWSBURY
LIVINGSTON

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
VCBet

If this is successful it pays £105 for £11 staked.

Hamilton Tips & Trends

There's racing at Hamilton today so this is a good day to look back at the Hamilton angles we have researched previously.

Back on June 11th we wrote about the profit that could be made by betting stall 1 at Hamilton when the starting stalls are positioned on a bend.

This only happens on races of 1 mile 1 furlong.

Since that article was published there have been 9 stall 1 runners over 1m1f at Hamilton.

They have produced 4 winners at 3/1, 6/1, 7/4 and 13/8.

So that's a handy iSP profit of 7.37 points a nifty 82% ROI.

There's only 1 race over 1m1f today and the stall 1 runner is…

4.10 Hamilton Neuf Des Coeurs – 11/2 Bet Victor

On July 18th Nick Hardman wrote about a simple but profitable trainer trend at Hamilton.

The stats for Keith Dalgleish when he runs in a non handicap race at Hamilton show a 21% strike rate and a 46% ROI.

There is only one Non Handicap race at Hamilton today and Keith Dalgleish has a runner…

3.10 Live Dangerously – 11/1 Bet Victor

Windsor Draw Part Deux

Following on from Tuesday's article I'm looking some more at the effects of the draw at Windsor.

To recap we found that stall 9 was profitable when 8 or 9 ran (8 because of non runners).

My next step is to look at how the differing distances perform for stall 9 and then I'll try and expand things out for the highest stall number in any race.

The course at Windsor has a lot of bends, with the 1 mile races running a figure 8.

The only start that is right on a bend is the 1m 3f.

Here are the numbers for the last 10 years…

Windsor Stall 9 by Distance

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What we can see here is that our Stall 9 is profitable at all distances except 1m 3f, I wouldnt be surprised if stall 1 performed better at that distance.

Next I have restricted my analysis to distances of 1m2f or less.

Here is the data for 5 runner races…

Windsor 5 Runner

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And here for 6 runner races…

Windsor 6 runner races

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7 runners…

Windsor 7 Runners

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8 runners…

Windsor 8 Runners

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9 runners…

Windsor 9 Runners

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10 runners…

Windsor 10 runners

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I don't have the time to go all the way to 20 runners or more, so let's discuss what we have.

Each table shows strong profit at one of the high stall numbers, the data is obviously skewed because sometimes there will be a stall allocated that is higher then the number that ran, because if say 12 are declared then stalls will be allocated upto stall 12, but if 2 then withdraw then the race is shown as a 10 runner race.

I think there is some sort of advantage here when drawn highest over any distance at Windsor other than 1 mile 3 furlong.

I cant get the exact data that I need, which would be performance of highest drawn horse in the race.

Personally I will be looking through the card at Windsor on Saturday and following the highest drawn horse.

If anybody reading can tell me how to get the data I need, or of anybody would like to volunteer to go through an manually research the 10 meetings that Windsor has had this year then I'd be pleased to hear from you.

Today's Selection

Leicester 5.40 Typhos – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365

 

 

Windsor Draw Bias?

Windsor Race CourseWe had a reader question in last week in response to one of the draw bias articles we published, so today I am going to try and answer that.

Here's the question…

Hi chaps,

I read your page every day.I was interested in the draw bias features you posted re Pontefract.

As a follow on does or is there a bias for all race tracks or just certain ones?

Just a query – note the card at Windsor tonight (16/06/2014).7 races and four winners from stall 9 at odds to sp of 5/1, 16/1, 16/1 and 9/2 £375 profit to £10 stakes.

For the record the winners in order came as follows –

Stall 9, 6, 11, 9, 9, 8, 9

All the best
James

Thanks James, a great question. I have a copy of the Value Backing paperback here, if you email the TGH Trading email address with your postal address I'll send it to you 🙂

(If any other readers have questions that result in an article published here or want to write an article themselves, I have other goodies to give away 😉

Is there a bias for all tracks, I would say no, not a repeatable consistent bias that we can make money from.

It's not in the best interest of the course to have a bias and if possible they will work to remove any bias that occurs.

Regarding a Windsor draw bias, I don't know if there is a bias, so let's look at some numbers to see if this is a one off anomaly or something we can profit from.

So the first thing I did was to look at the stall stats for Windsor over the last 10 years when 9 or more ran.

Obviously if I looked at all races the stats would be skewed towards the lower stalls when less than 9 ran.

Here's the results for all stalls…

Windsor Stall Stats 9 + Runners

Click to Enlarge

Nothing significant there, with a minimum of 9 runners you would expect stalls 1 – 9 to have similar strike rates and they do all being between 8 – 10%.

So next I looked at stall 9 broken down by number of runners in the race…

Windsor Stall 9 by number runners

Click to Enlarge

This is interesting and a little strange.

First off I see 8 runners races with stall 9 horses, so I guess this is where a horse is withdrawn, so I'm thinking we can say that where there were 9 horses declared to run then backing stall 9 is profitable.

Because looking at the above table we can see profit when 8 run and when 9 run and an increased strike rate.

What I'm thinking now is that there is a bias at Windsor and that maybe it is towards the highest stall in the race and that maybe in 8 runner races stall 8 has an advantage and in 7 runner races stall 7 etc.

So that's where I'm going to leave it for today, there is a meeting at Windsor on Saturday and I will write some more on this before then.

Today's Selection 

3.45 Beverley Gambol – eachway bet – 7/1 Paddy Power

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