Tag Archives: statistical information

400 Points a Year System

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett (http://greyhorsebot.com)

We do a lot of “open” testing at the Grey Horse Bot web site sometimes just to see how a particular idea will work out (high strike rate favourites) and sometimes to test a new system idea that looks like it could work.

Although it’s nice to see a profit from the testing sometimes the goal is just to see if a system is performing as expected.

As you know not every system will make a profit every month so a trial period may not be profitable but if the system performs as it has in the past then that is a good sign.

We started testing “Elision” back at the end of August.

This was planned as a 3 month test just to see if the ratings system we were using to help find the selections did actually continue to work as expected.

Elision is a Handicap Hurdle system and although the ratings picked the selections we added in a few other filters to help whittle down the field…

…Although because of the ratings we can still end up with more than one selection in a race.

The test has been quite revealing which you can see if you study the results page.

We have recently started to increase the amount of statistical information we supply on our results and have now added…

Longest Losing run
Predicted Longest losing Run.
Highest Bank draw down.

These along with the month by month and day by day results and the visual graph give you a good understanding of how the system is performing.

Another thing we give our customers from time to time is a report about the test which includes information about how we feel the system had performed and there is also one of these available on the results page.

I am not sure if Elision will appeal to everyone. But the fact that it made over 500 points last year and has still managed over 400 points this year should tempt you to at least have a look.

You can get all this information here.


http://greyhorsebot.com/elision

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

Kempton 6.50 Jelly Fish – eachway bet – 8/1 Sporting Bet

Horse Racing Ratings

Grey Horse BotToday we have our third guest column from Malcolm Pett of Greyhorse Bot fame.

—–

It’s strange how you see yourself…

I have always thought of myself as out going sort of person who likes a challenge and is not afraid to try something new.

Although I haven’t done as much as some people, I have had my fair share of adventures including, windsurfing, flying lessons, Scuba diving and sailing. Those are among some of the things I have tried and learned.

But while talking with some friends who I have only known over the last few years they said I was more of a “nerdy” type of guy.

When I quizzed them about why that was their impression of me?

Their answer was simply I am always talking about computers, programming, databases, 3d printers and lately quadcopters….. Nerdy!

Although I thought about defending my own impression of myself I have to admit…

…As the one that my friends tend to ask about anything technical it was going to be a hard battle to win.

So “Nerdy” I am…

To be honest I actually don’t mind the term although I am probably not exactly as some on-line dictionaries explain it…

“A person who is single-minded or accomplished in scientific or technical pursuits but is felt to be socially inept”

Any one that knows me will certainly not call me “socially inept”.

“One obsessed with something specified: a computer nerd.”

Which is probably what my friends were thinking when they used the term.

So when I start talking about System development or statistical modelling then you will probably think the same.

One of the things I love doing as a “computer nerd” is analysing our in house database to find horse racing systems.

Horse Racing Ratings

Lately I have been spending a great deal of time on developing ratings.

This is where you actually assign a number to each runner in a race and then rank them by that number or simply use the rating you have assigned them.

The official rating (OR) which you find on race cards is an example of this…

The fascination is in the way you create the ratings.

A trick you may want to use is to combine a number of ratings from different sources to create what some people refer to as “Power Ratings”.

So you could use the OR, RPR from the racing post and another rating like Sporting Life’s 5 star rating.

Add them altogether and you have ratings from 3 different sources which may point to another winner rather than the favourite.

I would suggest sticking to handicaps when you begin purely because all runners tend to be rated unlike say “maidens”.

I have tried this myself in the past and it can work quite well but the downside is the work involved getting all the information together daily.

I much prefer automation, and because of that I like to build my ratings based on statistical information.

Like…

How often a horse that came 1st place last time out…Wins.

Or

How often a 3 year old Horse wins a handicap.

You can see an example of how you could do it here.

See the ratings

I am a great believer in ratings (not just because I am a nerd) because I feel they give you a consistent way of selecting runners which tends to also give you a consistent strike rate.

The trick is to find the ones that offer value.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcolm Pett is the creator of the Greyhorse Bot which has been automating betting since 2006 – http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

15:05:00 Sandown 1 Alonsoa – win bet 11/8 Boylesport

Basic Betting Math

Grey Horse BotToday we have our second guest column from Malcolm Pett of Greyhorse Bot fame.

—–

Apart from automation I love statistics.

Personally I don’t understand how anyone can even start to follow a system or tips unless they have some basic statistical information.

At the very least you need two pieces of information.

Strike Rate (SR) and Average winning odds (AWO).

Those are the two main ingredients of any system and if they don’t balance these, then there is no profit.

If you have a low SR you need higher AWO.

Or if you have a high AWO then you can get away with a lower SR.

Basic Betting Maths

Here is how to work it out quickly…

Let’s say you know you have a strike rate of 25%

100-25 = 75
75 / 25 = 3.00

Basically the 25 winners have to cover the 75 losers.
And so those 25 runners need average winning odds of 3.00 just to break even.

You are going to need something higher than 3 to really make a profit.

Let’s say your AWO were 7.00

100 / 7 = 14.28
So your strike rate needs to be better than 14.28% before you make a profit.

The two above examples do not take into consideration any cost, like Betfair’s commission.

Your strike rate can also point you in the direction of your longest losing run, which in turn, can help you decide on the size of stake compared to your bank that you should use.

A 13% strike rate points to a possible losing run of 48 or more selections in a row…

Are you ready for that?

Many systems fail just because the AWO goes down. This happens when too many people start following a system especially when it is based around outsiders.

If you are following a system you need to keep an eye on both the above figures.

There will be variations especially during spells without winners or really good winning runs, but overall you should see very small changes.

Take a note of the current SR and AWO the moment you start following any selections which will give you a point of reference for the future.

If you are a real nerd like me then you can even go back over the results and test these two figures at different points in time.

I did this with one service and found that over the last 6 months both figures had been dropping slowly, pointing to a place not too far in the future where there would probably be no profit at all.

At the Grey Horse Bot site we do a lot of “open” system testing and all our selections come with a full set of day by day results.

But we don’t stop there we also have a month by month round up and the full statistics including Return on investment and a graph thrown in for good measure.

My belief is that many people start using systems/tips without even considering the numbers.

Profit looks good on paper but the really important thing is…

… “How does the system make that profit?”

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

You can find out more about Grey Horse Bot here.

Todays Selection
4.00 Catterick – 1pt win Go Far @ 5/1

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