Tag Archives: stop loss

Recovery staking a TABOO subject?

Today we have our regular Wednesday wisdom from Malcolm Pett, we also have selections for both the Headgear and Tongue Tie systems. Here's Malcolm…

Recovery staking for me has always been a taboo subject.

I have tried it in the past and lost a lot of money doing so.

When you mention recovery staking most people think about putting all your losses on the next bet and that’s the one to be AVOIDED at all costs.

Obviously a conversation about any form of staking needs a disclaimer…

Don’t do it unless you are fully aware of the cost!!!

Also there isn’t a staking system ever thought up that will allow you to make money from a system that doesn’t consistently make profit.

But I use one I actually call “Help recovery”.

It doesn’t usually recover all your losses but it seems to help.

I call it “1234..etc” staking and it works simply by…

“Increasing your stake by your ORGINAL stake every time you lose”

There are a few of things to clarify here…

It’s not doubling your stake (although bet 2 makes it look that way).

It won’t work with systems that don’t have a high strike rate.

The further you go into the sequence the less likely you are to recover your losses.

You need a stop loss setting.

Here is how it works.

1 is your original stake.

If you lose you go to 2 which is your original stake multiplied by 2.

If you lose again you go to 3 which is your original stake multiplied by 3.

And so on.

If you lose on 7 then you would have lost 28 points of your bank.

And you will need a 4/1 winner just to break even.

Which will be unlikely when used with a high strike system that this idea works best with.

So why use a staking system that won’t recover your losses?

With high strike systems you tend to get a mixture of very low prices and odds on prices.

You don’t tend to have long losing runs and so when this system does kick in it can often be for only 1 or 2 selections and the odd higher priced winner just seems to help boost up the profits.

I find with some systems this can be an extra 10 or more points a month.

A couple of tests we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website have results sheets showing how this works.

Click here for an example.


Again please be warned that staking isn’t for everyone and you need to be aware of the risks.

I tend to use 7 as my maximum with this system and realise that if I hit that…

…then it is a month’s (or more) profit down the drain.

Also when using staking select a stake lower than you normal would.

1% or less of your bank.

Thanks
Malcolm

http://greyhorsebot.com

System Selections

With both of these systems I'm still paper trading, but I wanted to post the selections so you can follow along with the live test.

Tongue Tie System

14:55 Chepstow – Nervous Nineties – 150/1 Coral

First Time Headgear

14:35:00 Down Royal – Reality Dose – 16/1 Bet Victor

Today's Selection

14:20:00 Chepstow Champagne Express – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365

Stop at a Winner Systems

Today Malcolm from http://greyhorsebot.com is back with details of a test he is running on a stop at a winner system…

Stop at a winner.

Have you ever tried a stop at a winner system?

You know where you have a number of selections for the day but stop as soon as you get the first win?

The people against SAW argue…

…”If the selections you are using are profitable then why stop?”

Although I agree some of my experiments are showing that they can actually be just as profitable or more so over time.

It can also mean you don’t have to put up with so many losers.

There is no doubt that SAW won’t work for every system and they are more suited to high strike rate systems where you have a 40% or above strike rate.

This normally means you are on quite fancied and sometimes low priced runners.

Looking through the race cards and looking at just the 1st and 2nd favourites is a good place to start and can easily give you 3 or more selections to use each day if you carefully consider which ones to use.

The other thing you need to consider is stop loss.

I have found that on days where things are not going to plan it’s pointless to just keep going.

In fact it is better to get yourself out after 3 or 4 losses than it is to keep hoping for a win and then having to make up a lot of lost points.

Also by limiting your maximum loss does allow you to consider different staking options.

If you are interested I have set up and experiment over at the Grey Horse Bot web site.

The selections are chosen using 3 criteria.

– They must be highest ranked by price early in the morning (around 6am)
– Their in-house rating should be 100 or more (you can choose this figure)
– Their price must be the same or lower when we get the mid morning prices (11am to 11.30am)

I am calling it an “interactive” test because you can experiment with the rating number.

You can see the results using all the selections and SAW.

You can even get the daily selections so that you can follow along and see how it actually works.

Click Here to have a look


Thanks
Malcolm
Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

3.20 Southwell Red Stripes – win bet – 7/4 Paddy Power, Bet 365

Automated Betting

Today we have a new article from Malcolm Pett the creator of the Grey Horse Bot.

To find out more about the GreyHorse Bot visit Malcolm website here http://greyhorsebot.com
—-
Knowing when to say enough is enough…

One of the reasons I originally created the Grey Horse Bot is that it allowed me to automatically stop betting.

And it also stopped me chasing loses.

I started in the early days with greyhound racing (that’s where the “Grey” comes from) and I followed a “Stop at a winner” system.

The problem I had was that even after that first win I couldn’t help myself starting again.

There were so many Greyhound races everyday that if I won early, it was just too tempting not to try again.

Of course you know what happened next…

…I couldn’t get a winner.

This led to the second problem of not knowing when to cut my losses.

Creating the Grey Horse Bot allowed me to “set and forget” knowing full well the bot would either stop as soon as it got a winner or if I hit my stop loss.

The other problem with Greyhound racing is that Bags races happen every 10 minutes and it is so easy to miss a race when the phone rang or you start chatting to someone.

Even reading an email can be enough to take your attention away from the racing just long enough to miss a race.

Having the Grey Horse Bot do everything for me just made life a lot easier.
The next step was to run the bot on a VPS or server that was permanently attached to the internet at all times.

This meant I didn’t even have to think about the bot, day to day.
Our longest running test was over 6 month’s non-stop. It would have been longer except the server had to be reset for an important update.

Testing is a very important part of my day to day betting activity and although I am a great believer in “paper” testing and would suggest you always do this…
(The Grey Horse Bot does paper test as well.)

…It’s not until you actually bet live when you find out if the selections your following are going to produce a profit.

I think this is where automated betting comes into its own.

Having the ability to set aside part of your bank just for these selections and set a stake that is smaller than you would normally have to use, all helps in the testing process.

Here is an example.

In last week’s article I introduced a new test for a simple system I came up with using 2nd ranked runners based on the BSP early morning prices.

Here is the article.
http://dailypunt.com/one-winner-per-day/

So I set up a Grey Horse Bot on one of our servers and set aside a £10 bank for the test.

I like to use a % of bank as my start test stake.

This may not work well with all systems but I find it a good place to start.
And if the test goes well then your stake should naturally increases but if not, your stake drops.

If I know the strike rate of my system I normally work out the Longest Losing Run expected statistically, add a little and use the figure as my stop loss.

If not…I normally set it at an equivalent of around 20 to 30 points.

Your have to decide what’s best for you.

Once that’s done then all I have to is click “start” and let the bot do the rest.
The Grey Horse Bot can automatically download selections based on your own criteria or using the special links that are often given to our members when we start a new test.

The link contains a live feed that the bot checks every so often and if it finds new selections it automatically adds them ready to monitor.

There is a link in the member’s area for the test from last week’s article.

I love automation and it doesn’t get any better than this.

But best of all I no longer have to worry about missing races or stopping when I should, it is all done automatically.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm


The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:00 Bangor Clondaw Kaempfer – eachway bet 15/2 Bet Victor

Betfair Trader

Today I am mostly reading about trading.

There is an interesting article in this months SmartSigger (Get your 1st month free here http://dailypunt.com/smartsig ) about the different types of Betfair trader and what sort of trader you might be.

As well as detailing different trading strategies, it also suggested a super fast trading tool which is free to use 🙂

I haven't tried it yet, but it definitely sounds like it is worth a play.

Here are some of the key features…

– Unbeatable speed – super fast trading on Betfair

– Grid Interface – single click trading, compact Betfair-style trading grid

– Ladder Interface – full depth of market, single click trading, queue position and built-in robot

– Position In Queue (PIQ) – provides a real-time estimated PIQ, arguably the most important and unique feature of our ladder!

– Automated Trading Robot – included is a unique Betfair bot, watch it trade on the ladder for you!

– Multi-Market – trade several different markets simultaneously

– Managed Markets (Guardian) – works in the background to gather data from multiple ‘managed' markets and maintain offset bets

– Tick Offset – automatically sends an opposing bet, after you get matched

– Stop Loss – automatically limits your losses. Trailing Stop Loss can also protect profits

– Racing Autopilot – it can automatically select each horse race and move forward
Greening (Cash-out) – a single click to lock in your profit (or loss) regardless of the outcome

– Advanced Charts – possibly the most comprehensive integrated charting available in any Betfair application

I think the most interesting and important feature for the trader is the advanced charts!

You can get the software here http://www.cymatic.co.uk/

If you've used it before I'd love to have your feedback in the comments.

Today's Selection

8.45 Kempton Four Cheers – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet Victor

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