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Weekend Racing Tips

Posted on October 24, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1. Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster. Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11).

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%.

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come. The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price.

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000). However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan. Caution is advised if you decide to back him.

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September. These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree.

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto.

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good.

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target.

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this.

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2^nd in this last year).

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this. He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money.

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations. His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going. He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse)

Filed Under: Tips
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Ayr Gold Cup Selections

Posted on September 19, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have our weekly big race insights from Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

It doesn’t come much harder than a 27 runner 6f handicap.

So how about three 27 runner handicaps in the space of two days?

I probably wouldn’t be doing my job if I were to turn down the opportunity to try and decipher the Ayr Bronze, Silver and Gold Cups – three of the toughest handicaps in the flat racing calendar.

The draw could play a huge role in the outcome of all three races and we will have a much better idea of draw bias by Saturday but for now we will start with the Bronze Cup on Friday.

The Bronze Cup was first run in 2009 so we have no real trends to go on and I will look to two trainers who do particularly well with their sprint handicappers at this meeting.

First up is Richard Fahey and he saddles Gatepost and Polski Max. The former is hard to win with but I like the fact he is running well and is as equally effective over 7f as he is over 6f.

If they go hell for leather then stamina as well as speed could come into play and Gatepost may well be there at the finish passing beaten horses.

Polski Max is very well handicapped and was once rated as high as 97 back in May last year. He races here off 79 and looked to be returning to form with a close up ¾ length 4th at Ripon last time out.

Dandy Nicholls is the “sprint king” and he has Bajan Bear, Fitz Flyer, Galvanize and Layla’s Hero in the line-up.

Bajan Bear is the choice of stable jockey Adrian Nicholls and will go close if bouncing back from a rare poor effort last time.

Layla’s Hero is admirably consistent and is 3lb well in under a penalty. He has not finished outside the three in his last 5 outings. These two are probably the pick of his quartet although it would be no great shock were any one of his runners to win this.

At the prices I will plump for the Fahey pair:

Ayr Bronze Cup 2.40pm – Gatespost @16/1 e/w & Polski Max @12/1 e/w (5 places)

Telmeyd is a worthy favourite in the Silver Cup on Saturday but at a best priced 7/1 I feel obliged to take him on.

Bogart for Kevin Ryan should go close if maintaining his current upward curve.

That is a big “if” but at 14/1 I am happy to back him each-way.

A winner of the 2yo Trophy at Redcar in 2011, he was once rated as high as 110 as a 3yo. He last won off a mark of 97 in August 2013 and put in his best effort since then when second to smart prospect Muthmir in the Portland last week.

He races off the same mark here (93) and a reproduction of that effort should see him go close from his (potentially) nice draw in stall 25.

If you ran this race 20 times you would probably get 20 different winners so I will stick with Bogart as my sole selection:

Ayr Silver Cup Saturday 2.40pm – Bogart @14/1 (e/w, 5 places)

Kevin Ryan has won the Ayr Gold Cup 3 times in the last 7 years, including back to back wins in 2011 and 2012. He runs York Glory, Blaine, Hamza and 2012 winner Captain Ramius.

Of the quartet it is the talented, but quirky, Blaine who makes most appeal. He has rediscovered his form this season with 2 wins in-between unseating his rider and finishing almost plumb last in the Steward’s Cup.

Kevin Ryan was quoted as saying he is in great form and will love the predicted fast ground.

The trends point towards a horse aged 4yo to 5yo, rated between 97 – 100, had at least 6 runs in the season and who has form over further than 6f.

One who ticks quite a few of those boxes is Go Far who was an unlucky 6th in the Portland and was doing his best work at the end. I will take these two against the field:

Ayr Gold Cup Saturday 3.50pm – Blaine @16/1 and Go Far @25/1 (e/w, 5 places)

Filed Under: Tips
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Doncaster Racing Tips

Posted on September 12, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have our regular Friday look at the racing from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club…

Doncaster Racing Tips

Doncaster St Leger meeting is well under way and today the stayers take centre stage in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup. I have had a look at the trends and winning profiles for today’s feature race as well as the final Classic of the season (the St Leger) and the Portland Handicap which take place on Saturday.

The Doncaster Cup is a race where the market usually gets it right with 16 of the last 18 winners coming from the top 4 in the betting and 12 of the last 13 winners returning odds of 7/1 or shorter.

All bar one of the last 13 winners were rated 110. Nine of the last 18 winners arrived here on the back of a win and 13 of the last 18 winners had a top three finish last time out. A race within the last 15 -30 days looks positive, accounting for 12 of the previous winners since 1997. Two horses tick all those boxes and they are:

Friday 2.40pm Doncaster Cup – Estimate @6/4 & Times Up @4/1

It would be some feat if Times Up were to win this for a third consecutive year.

However, he seems to love it around Doncaster and has career course form of 521411. He has had just 3 runs this year with his latest run (3rd behind Pale Mimosa at York) being by far the best. He had a similar profile coming into this race last year (form figures 603) and looks sure to make a bold bid.

The final day of the meeting sees the final Classic of the season in the St Leger.

From a trends perspective, 9 of the last 17 winners won last time out and 16 of the last 17 winners had finished in the top 3 on their last run. Favourites have a 50% record with 9 winners from the last 18 (including joint-favourites) and 16 of the last 17 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting.

Only 3 winners since 1998 have defied an absence of more than 60 days and no horse has won this race in that time having raced in the 15 days prior to lining up here.

We are also looking for a horse that has had between 3 and 5 runs in the season as they account for 15 of the last 17 winners.

The last 8 winners were all rated 109+.

Only one horse ticks all the trends boxes and that is:

Saturday 3.50pm St Leger – Snow Sky @11/2

Definitely a race for the each-way player, the Portland Handicap has seen just 1 winner return at single figure odds in the last 10 years. That exception was Poet’s Place @4/1 in 2010.

All the other winners since 2005 returned at odds between 11/1 and 20/1. In fact, there have been just 4 winning favourites since 1997 and they obliged in 1999, 2000, 2002 and 2010.

Not only have we seen a downward trend in the performance of the favourite in recent years but we have also seen a shift in success towards the older horses.

From 1997 to 2001 the winning horses were all aged 3yo or 4yo. However, since 2001 there have been no 3yo winners and just two 4yo winners (including Angels Will Fall who won this race last year as a 4yo and was the first to do so since 2005). Five year old runners account for 6 of the last 7 winners and these appear to be the group to concentrate on.

A recent run looks essential as all bar 2 of the last 17 winners had raced in the 30 days leading up to this. Given this is an intermediate distance it is no surprise to see that 12 of the last 17 winners had winning form over 6f or 7f.

From a ratings perspective, 9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 95 – 100. Given this race usually attracts a field of 20+ runners, you can narrow that ratings band down to 95 – 97, which accounts for 5 of the last 7 winners. One horse ticks all those boxes and that is:

Saturday 2.40pm Portland Handicap – Out Do @14/1

If you fancy taking more than one against the field then relaxing the stats to include those rated 95 – 100 and aged 5yo+ brings Clear Spring @33/1, Compton Park @12/1 and York Glory @25/1 into the equation.

You can read more of Nick's thoughts and learn his methods at the Betting School Insiders Club

Filed Under: Systems
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Exploiting Bookies Laziness

Posted on September 1, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

I'm back from rainy Scotland refreshed and rearing to go (ish).

Hopefully everything ran smoothly in my absence and I see that Gary gave some winners and made a good profit for those that got the prices.

I'm not fully up to speed with everything yet having only just got back into the office a couple of hours ago, so was struggling a bit for what to write.

So I started reading and found an excellent article in the Betting School Insiders Report about how bookmakers methods have changed over the years and how they currently create their early prices.

And more importantly how to exploit this.

Exploiting Bookies Laziness

In a nutshell, it goes like this…

In the old days they had in house expertise, sharp minds to create their odds lines and more importantly these sharp minds knew what to watch out for with regards to changes in conditions and shrewd money coming in.

These odds compilers took on the big bettors in a battle of whits and guile.

These days Mr Bookmaker is focusing on his easy money, from slots, virtual racing and games of chance. All activities with a guaranteed edge and guaranteed profit for Mr B.

So he gets his early prices from an outside supplier!

This is all well and good, but the tissue prices come in 24 hours ahead of racing.

This means that any changes that occur in the 24 hours leading up to the race are not accounted for, and bookmakers are not smart at adjusting for changing factors accurately.

Because? Because they didnt create the prices in the first place so they dont know how much emphasis has been placed on any given factor, or what importance any change may have.

The article is written by the highly respected Rory Delargy of http://racingconsultants.co.uk and is a real eye opener.

If you're not yet a Betting School Insiders member, if you join in the next few days you can read this article before the next issue comes out – go here http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Today's Selection

Leicester 3.40 White Vin Jan – win bet – 4/1 Boylesports

Filed Under: Form
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Weekend Racing Tips

Ayr Gold Cup Selections

Doncaster Racing Tips

Exploiting Bookies Laziness