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Perth Trainer Trends

Today we have an interesting trainer angle from Mark Foley of the Betting School Insiders Club…

Perth Trainer Trends

Perth stages summer racing over the jumps and you invariably think of Nigel Twiston Davies as the man to follow. 

The West Country maestro has done well in recent years with 27 runners since 2010, however during the same period, Irish raider Gordon Elliot has saddled a remarkable 72 winners at the Scottish track.

With the Stanraer ferry and a good motorway network making it easier for him to get to Perth than many of the Irish tracks and Irish races often being oversubscribed he has taken full advantage of his trips across the Irish Sea.

The strike rate since 2010 has been a very respectable 25% when you consider he has sent over 249 horses, but that only tells half of the story and the good news is that they have become even more profitable to follow in the past two years than in previous seasons.

In the past two seasons he has been more selective with the runners he has sent over but the strike rate was 32% last year and a remarkable 38% the year before; the ROI’s were 52% and 74%.

You would think that the booking of top Jocks AP Mc Coy and Jason Maguire would send the prices plummeting but 10 winners from 22 runners in the past two seasons, for a 45% ROI would suggest otherwise and the stable’s runners could have been backed with confidence when McCoy or Maguire rode or when he booked a ticket for Davey Condon.

Gordon Elliot has one entered at Perth today and 2 tomorrow.

Today's is in the 4.20 and is High Expectations.

Today's Selection courtesy of Winning Trends http://winningtrends.co.uk

Brighton 3.00 Best Example – win bet – 11/4 Bet 365

Perth

Weekend Racing Selections

Happy Saturday. Today we have a weekend racing review from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders which includes 6 selections.

Before that I should just mention that the Bet 365 free in play bet is back for the Champions League tonight.

Basically if you bet £50 pre-off then you get a free £50 in play, we've covered how to get a free £35 out of this many times before as have many others.

Weekend Racing Selections

We have some great racing this weekend with exciting cards at Haydock and Goodwood and the Irish 2000 and 1000 Guineas. I have gone through the cards at Haydock and Goodwood in search of some decent prices and some each-way value.

In the opener at Haydock, Glenard looks a solid betting proposition after a cracking 5th in the Chester Cup from a less than ideal draw. Travelling as well as any, he failed to get home that day and the drop back to 2 miles should be in his favour. The booking of in-form Ryan Moore is a big plus and 5/1 is just about value. With all bookmakers going ¼ odds, 3 places you can spread the risk by backing him each-way at that price if you wish.

The 6f Class 3 handicap at 2.05 looks wide open and one horse who is worth a second look is Out Do. He has some smart form from last year, winning twice for Luca Cumani.

Perhaps his best run was when finishing 3rd, beaten 2 ¼ lengths in a Class 2 handicap at Windsor by Tropics (now rated 115) and Rex Imperator (now rated 110 and a subsequent winner of the Steward’s Cup at Glorious Goodwood). Now rated 90, Out Do ran better than the bare result at York in a Class 2 handicap last time out and he takes a slight drop in class here. He could go well at a nice price.

The Temple Stakes at Haydock pitches the proven older horses Sole Power and Kingsgate Native against the rising stars of sprint racing in Hot Streak and Pearl Secret. With 13 of the last 17 winners coming from the top 4 in the betting and 7 of the last 8 winners returning at odds of 8/1 or less, it looks best to focus on those at the head of the market.

Hot Streak appears to be all the rage having been backed into 9/4 outright favouritism and Sole Power, an impressive winner of the Palace House Stakes, outright second favourite. Hot Streak is the one I would want to be on if the word “soft” appears in the going, with Kingsgate Native and Sole Power undoubtedly preferring a sounder surface. Of the others, Jack Dexter has never won above Group 3 level and there is little to suggest that will change judged on his two runs so far this season.

Hawkeyethenoo has done all his winning in handicap company and is priced accordingly.
At the prices the value has to lie with Kingsgate Native, winner of this race in 2010 and 2013 and runner up to Sole Power in 2011. You could argue that Sole Power had match fitness on his side in the Palace House Stakes but in reality there is not much to choose between Hot Streak, Sole Power and Kingsgate Native. As long as the ground is good or better I am happy to back the old boy each-way @7/1 with Bet365 who offer ¼ odds, 3 places.

On the same card I am going to give an each-way shout to Clive Cox’s Perfect Blessings in the 6f Listed race for fillies at 3.10pm. If the forecast rain changes the going to the soft side of good then I will be even happier. Clive Cox’s twice-raced filly scored an emphatic win over subsequent winner Penny Drops, who incidentally was 3rd on debut behind 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder. She takes a big hike in class here but she also holds a Group 3 entry in the Ballyogan Stakes at Leopardstown, so she must be held in high regard by connections.

Over at Goodwood, the race that interests me is the 4.40pm Class 4 handicap for older horses (6yo+) over 6f. Five C&D winners line up and the two I like are Slip Sliding Away for Peter Hedger and last year’s winner Mon Brav. Peter Hedger does really well with his handicappers at the track and Slip Sliding Away has recorded 3 of his 4 wins here. A return to Goodwood might just be the ticket for him to get his head in front again. Mon Brav won this race last year and has been running respectably since without winning. That has seen his mark tumble to 2lb lower than when successful here in 2013 and he ran his best race for some time when finishing 4th of 17 at Doncaster in a Class 4 handicap last week.

Earlier in the card we have a decent looking Class 2 handicap over 7f. Penny Drops is interesting on handicap debut but I will give an each-way shout to Mick’s Yer Man who is looking more and more like a very smart horse. Last time out he won a Listed race at Ascot from 106 rated (and subsequent scorer) Musical Comedy. He won’t mind if the ground softens up and he might just defy top weight at a first try over 7f.

Selections:

Haydock 1.35: Glenard @5/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Coral)
Haydock 2.05 Out Do @9/1 each-way generally
Haydock 2.40 Kingsgate Native 7/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Bet 365)
Haydock 3.10 Perfect Blessings 8/1 each-way generally
Goodwood 2.55 Mick’s Yer Man 10/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places William Hill)
Goodwood 4.40 Mon Brav @4/1 & Slip Sliding Away @8/1 generally

Scoop 6 Roll Over – Free Entry

You will no doubt of heard that there is another huge rollover on the Scoop 6.

So what we've decided to do is to buy a ticket and share half the winnings should we be successful.

So here's how it's going to work out.

I will buy the ticket Saturday morning. I'm probably going to go with a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or maybe a 3x3x2x2x2x1 but we'll see how the selections look before I make a final decision.

I will then post the ticket on our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/Racingtips

If you want a share of the winnings you have to share that post to your wall before the first race on Saturday.

IE you share, which helps our Facebook page, we share our winnings 🙂

They say the win pool could be £6.5 Million so if we win £6,500,000 and 100 people share the the post then they'll each get £32,500.

Of course the chances of winning with a 72 line perm are quite slim and the chances of being the only winners are even slimmer.

But the cost of entry for you is zero, so that makes pretty good odds in my book.

Once you've shared the ticket you need to tell me.

The way to do that is to add your first name, last name and email address to the form below.

If we win half of the winnings will be shared with anybody that shared the Facebook post before the first race of the Scoop 6. (1.45 Newmarket)

So to recap…

Step 1: Share the Facebook post on your timeline

Step 2: enter your details below to get on the notification list




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