Tag Archives: trainer stats

Salisbury Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Salisbury meeting.

Don't forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

Our Friday column was on the money last week with Nunthorpe winner Sole Power @7/2 and Ebor winner Mutual Regard @25/1. Hopefully a few of you were on. This week we take a look at Salisbury and some of the profitable trainers to make a note of. We also highlight a bang in-form trainer who looks worth following at Chester on Saturday.
First to Salisbury and standing head and shoulders above the rest is Lady Jane Cecil who continues the great work of her late husband. Since 2010 the Cecil yard has had 12 winners from 29 runners for a level stakes profit of £11.57 at the Wiltshire track. Most of the winners have come in non-handicap races and if we concentrate on their 3yo and 4yo non-handicap runners then the figures are 8-17 at a strike rate (SR) of 47% and a level stakes profit of £13.08. Six of their last nine runners at the track have won.

PD Evans has sent out the highest number of winners at the track with 19 in the last 5 seasons at a strike rate of 16%. That strike rate increases to 23% (12-52) in non-handicap races. If we take out his 2yo runners then he is 6-12 (SR 50%) and a level stakes profit of £30.50 with his older horses (3yo and 3yo+) in non-handicap races.

Finally, David Simcock does not send many runners to the track but in the last 5 seasons his non-handicap runners are 5-15 (SR 33.33%) and a level stakes profit of £8.98. Our top three trainers have no entries today but there are two more meetings in September so look out for their runners at the track in the next two weeks.

We have a great card at my local track Chester on Saturday and one trainer I want on-side is Andrew Balding. In the last 5 seasons he is 24-101 (SR 24%) and shows a healthy level stakes profit of £51.13. This season alone he is 8-18 (SR 44%) at the Roodee for a profit of £25.38. Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy have formed a tremendous partnership at the course in 2014, combining for 6 wins from 12 rides and a profit of £21.38. Andrew Balding has the following horses entered at Chester tomorrow:

2.20 Dungannon (5f handicap)
3.30 Whiplash Willie 1m 5f
4.40 Cosmic Ray (7f maiden)

Chester has the biggest draw bias of any course in the UK so we certainly want be drawn low for all races up to 7 ½ f. We have previously highlighted the fact Franny Norton rides Chester as well as anybody and he has a good book of rides on Saturday. They are B Fifty Two (2.20pm), Heavy Metal (2.55pm), Special Meaning (3.30pm), Enlace (4.05pm) and Sea Silk (4.40pm). B Fifty Two and Heavy Metal both look to have a decent chance which would be enhanced further by a nice, low draw.

On a final word, betting on trainer stats is a long term strategy that takes time and patience to reap the rewards. For example we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at York back in July. At the time of writing he had sent 11 runners to the track in 2014 and all 11 had lost. The following day he sent out two winners @4/1 and 9/2 and followed that up with 3 winners at the Ebor festival @12/1, 20/1 and 8/1.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Salisbury Lady Crossmar 11/4

Northumberland Plate Trends

Today we have another example of the kind of method that does find winning and profitable racing selections.

It's been submitted to us by Dave Renham who writes a regular column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper.

Dave has also recently launched a new service that you can try for just £5 called www.horseracereport.co.uk.

Today's analysis of the Northumberland Plate comes from that service…

Northumberland Plate Ten Year Trends

There is an old saying of “A leopard does not change it’s spots”

 In racing unfortunately that saying is not true 100% of the time. Shocks do indeed occur.

I however am a firm believer that it would be foolish to continually ignore key lessons history has to teach us.

Each major race during the racing calendar is an individual and unique event. Each race tends to favour horses with certain characteristics and profiles.

One major race this weekend is the Northumberland plate

Below is my ten year trends report on this race.

I hope it is of some assistance in helping you compile your own sensible shortlist of contenders.

Dave Renham

www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Course – Newcastle

Distance – 2 miles

Date 29th  – June 2013

Average field size last 10 years – 19

Market Trends 

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a loss of £1.50 (ROI -13.6%).
Top three in betting: 2 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 4 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced between 14/1 and 33/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

 

LTO stats 

Days since last run: 0 wins from 24 for horses returning to the track within 10 days.
Position LTO: 2 wins for horses that won LTO (from 35 runners).
Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 6th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 55.
LTO favourites: 3 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 27 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 78 runners).
LTO Price: Horses priced between 10/1 and 16/1 LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners from only 47 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £54.50 (ROI +116.0%).
LTO distance: Horses that raced over 1m 7f or less LTO have provided just 2 winners from 95 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -56.8%); horses that raced over 2m 2f or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 50 for a profit of £25.50 (ROI +51%).

 

Age 

Age

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

3

0

1

0.0

-£1.00

-100.0

4

4

64

6.3

+£13.00

+20.3

5

0

44

0.0

-£44.00

-100.0

6

4

41

9.8

+£9.50

+23.2

7+

2

38

5.3

+£11.00

+28.9

 

Official ratings (OR) 

OR band

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

90 and below

4

70

5.7

+£39.00

+55.7

91-96

5

67

7.5

-£3.00

-4.5

97 and above

1

51

2.0

-£47.50

-93.1

 

 Draw

Draws

Wins

Runners

SR%

1-6

4

60

6.7

7-12

2

60

3.3

13+

4

68

5.9

 

 Breeding

Breeding

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

FR

1

6

16.7

-£2.50

-41.7

GB

3

87

3.4

-£29.00

-33.3

GER

1

1

100.0

+£14.00

+1400.0

IRE

4

78

5.1

+£11.00

+14.1

USA

1

14

7.1

-£3.00

-21.4

Other countries

0

2

0.0

-£2.00

-100.0

 

Class change 

Class change

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Down in class

1

29

3.4

-£14.00

-48.3

Same class

7

100

7.0

+£20.50

+20.5

Up in class

2

58

3.4

-£17.00

-29.3

 

Trainer stats 

Trainers: 2 wins from 3 runners for Donald McCain.

 

General stats

Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 35.
Claiming jockeys: 3 wins from 23.
Recent win: 6 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 92 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £11.50 (ROI +12.5%).
Handicap runs: Horses who have had 5 or less handicap runs have provided 0 winners from 43 runners.
Career  wins: Horses with 2 or fewer career wins have provided just 1 winner from 55 runners for a loss of £40.00 (ROI -72.7%).

 

Conclusion – A few interesting angles for this race. Firstly higher rated runners have struggled with those rated 94 and above managing just 1 win from 79; horses rated 85 to 93 have provided 9 winners from 96. Horses stepping up in trip have struggled whereas horses dropping 2 furlongs or more in trip have performed well above the average. The top three in the betting have performed well below the norm despite a winning favourite last year, while the 14/1 to 33/1 price bracket has actually yielded a 10 year profit if backing all runners from that band. LTO market factors have also favoured slightly higher prices with the LTO price bracket of 10/1 to 16/1 doing especially well. Age wise there is no clear pattern.

Dave Renham

Dave Renham writes a regular horse racing research column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper. He also runs www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk which offers both free and  a  low cost paid for options to people interested in researched racing advice.

Today's Selection

2:30:00 Doncaster 5 Inyordreams – each way bet – 9/1 Will Hill, Bet Victor

Using Betfair as a Value Finding Tool 5

Todays’ article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

Yesterday, we established that Betfair markets in the few minutes before a race goes off are by far the most accurate guide we have to a horse’s true chance of winning a race.

Now, at first glance it would seem of little use to know that Betfair is our most accurate guide to true probability – when it only becomes truly accurate in the final few minutes before the race.

Surely by that time all the value prices have gone?

Well, yes they have.

However simply knowing that the prices on Betfair are becoming progressively more accurate throughout the day, points us towards a very simple method of ensuring we are getting value on our bets.

If, earlier in the day, we can identify and back those horses that are shortening in price and are therefore likely to be shorter on Betfair in those final moments before the race – we have automatically found value.

Remember that sentence – therein lies the key to long term betting profits.

As long as we can identify horses that will end up a shorter price on Betfair at the off, than the price we are taking now – we cannot fail to make money in the long term!

Now, identifying those horses, with any accuracy, is easier said than done. It can be achieved in a number of ways and you are best searching out a method that suits you

Here’s one method that I use:

Each morning I have a good idea of a fair price for all the runners I am interested in based on form study, trainer stats/jockey stats, my own ratings and a variety of other indicators.

I then monitor the Betfair and bookmaker prices throughout the day to identify whether my opinion is being confirmed/refuted by the markets. This will involve detailed analysis and prediction of price movements based on a variety of indicators.

What’s key in all this is I’m rarely trying to identify the winner of a race. I’m simply using market analysis to identify the horses that are likely to go off at a shorter price than they are currently available at. Having found that value, the winners take care of themselves in the long run.

The analysis of price trends will not be right all the time – that’s impossible – but it doesn’t need to be. As long as it is right most of the time, profits are guaranteed.

In conclusion, finding value is the route to long-term profitability and I hope that my observations on the Betfair markets make finding value that little bit easier for you.

Today's Selection

Lingfield 3.05 Khawatim – win bet – 13/8 Paddy Power

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