Tag Archives: true chance

Longest Losing Run

Smart SiggerI've just been catching up with my reading, with this months Smart Sigger magazine.

This months issue includes Ebor Handicap Trends, a piece on the wisdom of crowds that looks at why starting prices reflect the true chance of a horse, a continuation of their implementation of a Bayes Theorem method. A system for betting debutantes in handicaps and an interesting piece about why you shouldnt always use past results as an indication of future performance.

But the piece I want to talk about today is a discussion of whether you are a gambler or an investor, which provided a reminder of the formula that you can use to calculate your longest expected losing run.

I think we have published this formula before but it's always worthwhile to revisit important fundamentals.

The gist of the article was that if you dont stake your bets consistently with your longest expected losing run then you are a gambler not an investor.

The formula for working out the longest expected losing run for a given strike rate is

LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)

If, like me you no longer have your log tables to hand, then you will need to use Excel or something similar to make the calculation.

By way of an example lets assume that we expect to make 400 bets this season and that the methods we use have a strike rate of 20%.

The 20% has to be converted to a decimal number, so we divide by 100 to give 0.20.

So the calculation is

LOG(400)/-LOG(1-0.20) = 26.85

So with a 20% strike rate over 400 bets we can expect a losing run of between 26 and 27.

Eddie Lloyd who wrote the piece goes on to state that if you intend to be an investor and not a gambler you had better have a bank and a stake size that can cope with the losing runs you can expect.

You can get your first issue of Smart Sigger for free – Click Here

Today's Selection

Lingfield 6.35 O Gorman – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor

 

Word from the Nerd

This weeks article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com sheds some light on the topic of value…

People are always talking about value when it comes to horse racing.

But for the average punter in the street it’s a bit of a mystery.

It sounds like one of those weird things that all the experts like to talk about among themselves, while keeping everyone else in the dark about what it actually is.

Well let’s see if we can shed light on the subject.

The obvious explanation for value is:

“A horse’s real chance of winning is better than the odds reflect.”

So a horse may have a current price of 4/1 but according to those in the know it should be 3/1.

All things being equal if you placed a bet on every horse where you found this discrepancy you should make a profit because the horse should win more often than the odds reflect.

But this is where for the average punter the problem lies.

How do you tell if a horse’s current price represents value?

Well that’s where the whole thing gets complicated.

It is really based around opinions and peoples different way’s of deciding if a horse has a better chance of winning, than the general view.

Most people try to work it out early so they can take a better price before the rest of the markets catch on.

Sometimes you can even see a difference between bookies and Betfair (which most people believe to represent a more accurate view of a horse’s true chance of winning).

But it still doesn’t help if you haven’t got a way of looking at each horse and deciding which one has the best chance of winning.

I always look at it from a system development point of view.

If I create a system that has a 25% strike rate then I need to get average winning odds of at least 4.00 to break even.

But I need better odds than that to make money.

But really that is all a system is…

It identifies horses that traditionally have odds higher (or better value) than the strike rate of the system points towards.

That’s why I always tell people… 

“Although there are lots of different statistics you can watch and monitor it is the strike rate and average winning odds that dictate if a system is profitable or not.”

So once you developed, purchase or find a system that you want to use, your only priority is to find the best price you can for each selection.

At the end of the day you can not control the strike rate of a system unless you “tweak” it (but then it becomes a new system) so your only chance to make profit is to work on the average winning price.

My own personal experience always leads me to Betfair because even after the 5% commission generally the prices are much better especially when you are not on the favourite.

Anyway I hope that goes some way to showing what value is.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

Sandown 7.25 Prince of Stars – win bet – 9/4 Boylesports

Weekend Roundup + RC Tip

Rory DelargyI've had a really good weekend punting wise, firstly thanks to Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders who pointed us at Stec 33/1 and Pomology 8/1 in his column on here on Friday.

Secondly I had two big wins from the guys at http://racingconsultants.co.uk/ in Mukhadram 16/1 and De Rigueur 12/1.

This service is really turning out to be a revelation and it has my highest recommendation http://racingconsultants.co.uk/

As well as a handful of selections each day with a page or two of explanation as to why they have made each selection, Rory and David also send out an evening message on days when they think they have found a pricing blunder.

These are selections where they think the price will evaporate as people realise the true chance of a horse.

There was one such bet last night and members have had 10 hours to secure themselves a price and I now have permission to share that selection with you 🙂

Here's the message that Rory sent out last night…

Good evening all,

An early one for tomorrow, putting out now as we believe the price will go.

9.10 Ripon – 1pt win Tarrafal (10-1 Skybet and Bet Victor)

The rest of tomorrow's bets will be up in the morning as normal.

Thanks,

David and Rory.

There is still some 9/1 available with Paddy Power but everyone else is 8/1 or 17/2.

If you want to be part of a top class tipping service you can join David and Rory at http://racingconsultants.co.uk/ their main message will be out at around 11:00 am.

Odds On Value Bet

A lot of people will tell you that a bet is only value if it is big odds.

And that odds on bets cannot be value.

Those people are wrong.

To be value a bet only has to be available at bigger odds than the true chance of the event occurring.

I was reminded of this yesterday when I read an email from the Betfan Formula 1 service.

Rather than me re-write this in my own words I think it will make more sense if I show you the full message from Betfan F1

China Grand Prix

Statistical anomaly means bookies have got it wrong.

It’s happened for the first time this F1 season. Odds compilers have brought their banana skin to work, placed it under their chair leg and then decided to rock themselves on their seat while pricing up the Chinese Grand Prix.

There have been ten Chinese Grand Prix which have featured four Safety Car Periods. As that’s a good-sized sample it’s probably fair to say there is a 40 percent chance of a safety car being deployed this Sunday and 60 percent chance that it is not.

That converts directly into probability of 4/6 for no and 6/4 for yes. Funnily enough the best odds on offer for and against a safety car appearance is 4/6 and 6/5.

Therein lies the huge rick as only two races have actually been effected by a safety car period (when it was deployed twice). It means odds compilers have over-analysed their stats and should actually be betting 20 percent and 80 percent. That’s 1/4 no safety car and 4/1 that there is one.

There is another factor to consider which actually make a NO safety car scenario even shorter than 80 percent:

The last time it was brought into play, 2010, 24 cars lined-up for the race and not the 22 which will face the starter this Sunday. Two less cars means two less cars which can find themselves in a collision or stranded on a dangerous part of the circuit. That equates to eight percent.

Conclusion:

Not an attractive ‘get rich’ price but a hugely out-of-line all the same. 4/6 offers a return way in advance of what your money would if tied up in a five-year savings plan – and should give its yield after 90 minutes as opposed to 260 weeks.

BET – 6 Points on No Safety car @ 4/6

Hopefully the above explains why this bet is value more clearly than I could with hypothetical examples.

But to be clear the chance of a safety car being deployed is about 20% and the bookies have priced it like there is a 40% chance, so the 4/6 no safety car is huge value!

You can find out more about the Betfan F1 Betting service here.

And also I should mention that the Betfan free bets are currently topping the proofing table at Race Advisor and if you don't get their free bets you can sign up for free here.

Today's Selection

Newmarket 2.55 Toofi – win bet – 9/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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