This months issue includes Ebor Handicap Trends, a piece on the wisdom of crowds that looks at why starting prices reflect the true chance of a horse, a continuation of their implementation of a Bayes Theorem method. A system for betting debutantes in handicaps and an interesting piece about why you shouldnt always use past results as an indication of future performance.
But the piece I want to talk about today is a discussion of whether you are a gambler or an investor, which provided a reminder of the formula that you can use to calculate your longest expected losing run.
I think we have published this formula before but it's always worthwhile to revisit important fundamentals.
The gist of the article was that if you dont stake your bets consistently with your longest expected losing run then you are a gambler not an investor.
The formula for working out the longest expected losing run for a given strike rate is
LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)
If, like me you no longer have your log tables to hand, then you will need to use Excel or something similar to make the calculation.
By way of an example lets assume that we expect to make 400 bets this season and that the methods we use have a strike rate of 20%.
The 20% has to be converted to a decimal number, so we divide by 100 to give 0.20.
So the calculation is
LOG(400)/-LOG(1-0.20) = 26.85
So with a 20% strike rate over 400 bets we can expect a losing run of between 26 and 27.
Eddie Lloyd who wrote the piece goes on to state that if you intend to be an investor and not a gambler you had better have a bank and a stake size that can cope with the losing runs you can expect.
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Lingfield 6.35 O Gorman – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor