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Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Perth Trainer Trends

Today we have an interesting trainer angle from Mark Foley of the Betting School Insiders Club…

Perth Trainer Trends

Perth stages summer racing over the jumps and you invariably think of Nigel Twiston Davies as the man to follow. 

The West Country maestro has done well in recent years with 27 runners since 2010, however during the same period, Irish raider Gordon Elliot has saddled a remarkable 72 winners at the Scottish track.

With the Stanraer ferry and a good motorway network making it easier for him to get to Perth than many of the Irish tracks and Irish races often being oversubscribed he has taken full advantage of his trips across the Irish Sea.

The strike rate since 2010 has been a very respectable 25% when you consider he has sent over 249 horses, but that only tells half of the story and the good news is that they have become even more profitable to follow in the past two years than in previous seasons.

In the past two seasons he has been more selective with the runners he has sent over but the strike rate was 32% last year and a remarkable 38% the year before; the ROI’s were 52% and 74%.

You would think that the booking of top Jocks AP Mc Coy and Jason Maguire would send the prices plummeting but 10 winners from 22 runners in the past two seasons, for a 45% ROI would suggest otherwise and the stable’s runners could have been backed with confidence when McCoy or Maguire rode or when he booked a ticket for Davey Condon.

Gordon Elliot has one entered at Perth today and 2 tomorrow.

Today's is in the 4.20 and is High Expectations.

Today's Selection courtesy of Winning Trends http://winningtrends.co.uk

Brighton 3.00 Best Example – win bet – 11/4 Bet 365

Perth

September Trainers

I'm just catching up with my Racing Ahead magazine (available in all good newsagents).

One of the features I like to keep an eye on is the jockeys and trainers performance tables for the upcoming month.

This month the trainer table tells me that the top three trainers in September since 2003 are…

Twiston Davies, N 29% strike rate
Nicholls, P 26% strike rate
Henderson N 26% strike rate

The first interesting thing about this top 3, is that they are all National Hunt trainers and we're not in the main National Hunt season.

The second thing is the number of bets, over the 10 years…

Twiston Davies, N 253 runners
Nicholls, P 47 runners
Henderson N 50 runners

and finally the profit to £1 level stakes…

Twiston Davies, N £70.21 profit
Nicholls, P £5.69 loss
Henderson N £13.08 profit

There are many other profitable trainers in the list and we'll look closer at them another day, but for now let's keep an eye on Nigel Twiston Davies runners this month.

He has nothing today, but 3 entries tomorrow.

Today's Selection

Goodwood 4.40 Special Fighter – win bet – 6/1 Bet 365

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Lay Debutants

13:30:00 Lingfield 1 Ayers Rock (IRE)
15:20:00 Bangor 6 Rayak (IRE)
17:20:00 Kempton 6 Acertainplace
18:45:00 Dundalk 1 Champagne Or Water
18:45:00 Dundalk 7 Mouskersize (IRE)
18:45:00 Dundalk 9 Phoenix Twist (IRE)

Today's Selections (courtesy of Hawk Eye Tips – Join the waiting list here)

Lingfield 12.30 Lutine Charlie 1pt win 11/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

Lingfield 3.00 Brabazon 10’1 1pt win Paddy Power

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