Tag Archives: value bet

Big Profit from Multiples

Do you bet in multiples?

Doubles, trebles or acca's (accumulators)?

I have always been of the opinion that these types of bets are just for the bookies benefit and have always avoided them, even though there is a promise of huge profits if they come off.

I do remember a few years back reading an article about how if you are making value bets, if you combine them into doubles or trebles that you magnify the advantage that you have because the value multiplies. But that didnt change my methods.

The results from yesterday's Racing Consultants tips have caused me to think again.

Yesterday they gave three selections to be combined into a half point each way Trixie.

A Trixie is 3 doubles (eachway doubles in this case) and a treble, so four bets.

The guys managed to land 2 of the bets, the advised prices were 6/1 and 9/1 (there was a 10p rule 4 on the 6/1)

A £5 eachway Trixie where only two of the horses won paid £376, which is a £336 profit!

That's a big return from getting just two bets home.

But the thing that really surprised me is that if they had got all three home the return would have been £5,620 for a £40 outlay.

(The non runner was 11/1)

I need to re-think my betting and staking strategy.

Do you bet in multiples? Tell me in the comments, if you've had any big wins tell me that also.

Find out more about the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.00 Newcastle – Lady Bingo – win bet – 4/1 Bet 365

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

Performance Review

Today I'm going to have a little catch up on some of the angles we've looked at recently.

Starting off with September Trainers.

You'll remember on the 3rd of this month we published a list of trainers to follow in September.

After 11 days we have had 20 bets, 3 wins and a profit at industry SP of 1.5 points.

The Betfair SP profit is a slightly juicier 4.55 after commission which is a 22% ROI.

Mark Foley's Gordon Elliott angle got of to a cracking start with a 7/1 winner on the day we published and 3 winners from 4 on the second day.

My stats may have steered readers away from the odds on selections but either way great profit was made and this is one to follow going forward.

The next Perth meeting is on the 24th and 25th of September.

Finally it is Chester tomorrow and although the low draws will be bet in the sprints you'll remember that our previous articles have shown that horses drawn 1 and 2 have a definite advantage on the 11 and 12 furlong races also.

This advantage is overlooked or not known by the majority of punters and is a source of value bets for us.

This article goes into the detail http://dailypunt.com/chester-draw-bias-2/

Today's Selection

Chepstow 4.00 Romance Story – win bet – 9/2 Betfred

Guest Tips – Gary Poole

As you read this I will be loading up the van for my summer holidays, I hope I havent missed the sun!

While I'm away I have a number of posts lined up for you and hopefully my holiday relief manages to deliver those to you smoothly.

I have also arranged for a guest tipster to provide you with a tip each day, so do check in to the homepage everyday.

That guest tipster is non other than the Bookies Enemy No 1 Gary Poole.

Gary has been making waves (and big profits) for over a year now via twitter and other proofing sites and more recently has launched a tipping service which is making some huge profits.

Gary is a big priced value bettor and hopefully he will hit some big winners over the next two weeks.

If you want all of Gary's bets then go to his website at http://bookiesenemyno1.com where you can register for his tipping service.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

Injaz (1700 Kemp) – 8/1 EW Bet365/Betfred

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