Tag Archives: various distances

Free National Hunt To Follow List

Today we have a freebie for you that will hopefully make some serious profit this National Hunt season.

It comes from a guy called Ben Aitken that you have probably heard of.

Ben takes an alternative approach to winner finding, the main difference is that he uses the Dosage Index to analyse National Hunt runners.

Here's what Wikipedia say about the Dosage Index…

The Dosage Index is a mathematical figure used by breeders of Thoroughbred race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree.

The Dosage Index is commonly used to assess horses running on the flat, but Ben is the only person I know that also uses it for National Hunt racing.

The upshot of that alternative approach is that he finds a lot of big priced winners.

But back to the freebies.

Ben is currently giving away a number of FREE racing guides, the most interesting for me is his ‘20 To Follow’ for the season.

Now this isn’t your standard list. Why? Because Ben has deliberately left out any Mullins, Henderson and Nicholls horses! Indeed there are no Hobbs, McCain or King horses on the list either!

That instantly makes the list of interest for me.

What’s more he has also managed to secure some exclusive trainer quotes for a couple of the horses on his list, adding even more value to this excellent FREE guide.

Grab your own copy of the NTF ‘Alternative 20 To Follow’

Today's Selection

A shortage of racing today so we are going odds on at Sedgefield

2.10 Sedgefield Laigle Royal – win bet

Contrary Mary

It is a known fact that the people who make the biggest profits from betting are those who go against the crowd. That is they have a unique angle that the main stream punters do not use or consider significant.

Or more likely the regular punter isn't prepared to put in the work required to use the alternate angle.

One such alternate angle is using the Dosage Index to calculate the likely performance of a horse from it's breeding.

Here's how Wikipedia define the Dosage Index…

The Dosage Index is a mathematical figure used by breeders of Thoroughbred race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree.

There are a lot of people around the world who use Dosage figures to work out the likely performance of the top flat racing horses.

But there are very few people who use it to rate the big National Hunt races. In fact there is only one person that I know of who takes this contrary view and his name is Ben ‘Contrary Mary' Aitken and he has been very successful with this approach.

Today Ben launches his National Hunt service, where he shares his full analysis of the top National Hunt races over the coming season.

This full analysis means you can use his data to find your own selections or you can take the easier route and follow Ben's own selections.

To find out more about the Dosage Index and Ben's service Click Here.

You can also download a whole host of free guides that will help you to make your own Dosage calculation.

Today's Selection

Lingfield 4.30 Ginger Ted – win bet

Trainer Trends: First Run

Trainer Trends: First Run

A lot of punters and form students bet by the maxim ‘never expect a horse to do something it hasnt done before!'

EG If it's never run with blinkers before and it has them today then watch and see how it performs with blinkers rather than consider it a bet.

Or if it has not run in a hurdle before then it can't be considered as a bet on it's first attempt.

The trouble with this approach is that it misses a lot of potential.

A good horse watcher will have a feel for what conditions a horse needs.

A trainer will also have this feel, but with the added benefit of having the facilities to try the horse out under the changed conditions and see how it goes. Before committing to the race track.

So how can we benefit from the trainers insight.

Well quite simply trainers are creatures of habit and some of them are good at getting a horse ready for it's first race under new conditions. And some are not.

I have just read a very interesting piece of trainer trends research by our friend and prolific stats man Dave Renham.

This time it was in the Racing Investors Club.

Dave has researched how trainers perform with their charges having their first run in various types of races.

I'll give an examples here of first runs in hurdles.

Nicky Henderson has a great strike rate with his horses having their first run in a hurdle.

The strike rate is 33.1% and betting them all would have returned a level stakes profit of £64.86 for £1 stakes.

You can increase the strike rate and profit by only betting when the horse is in the first four in the betting, when it runs at Ascot, Hereford, Huntingdon, Ludlow, Sandown or Taunton. And by excluding horses that havent previously won a race.

The above makes up a pretty nifty micro system in itself. But when you add the other trainers that Dave has researched and add in Flat racing as well you have a good source of profitable bets.

The Racing Investors Club February report contains the full stats and is still available to new members.

The club is well worth checking out and is packed full of systems and research every month. Click Here for full info.

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Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Combe Hill 4.40 Taunton 2pt win @ 9`4 various firms

Strange that he is not odds on for this race. Has very solid recent pointing form and was running very well until unseating late on in a race of high quality last year when seen under rules that is head and shoulders above the competition here.

Vivarini 3.30 Ludlow 1pt win @ 9`2 various firms

Has form at various distances from 2 miles – 3 miles, so trip will not be a problem. Ridden by what I think is a very good 8lb claimer and is one of very few in the race that is in any kind of recent form.

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