Tag Archives: various distances

A lot of punters and form students bet by the maxim ‘never expect a horse to do something it hasnt done before!'

EG If it's never run with blinkers before and it has them today then watch and see how it performs with blinkers rather than consider it a bet.

Or if it has not run in a hurdle before then it can't be considered as a bet on it's first attempt.

The trouble with this approach is that it misses a lot of potential.

A good horse watcher will have a feel for what conditions a horse needs.

A trainer will also have this feel, but with the added benefit of having the facilities to try the horse out under the changed conditions and see how it goes. Before committing to the race track.

So how can we benefit from the trainers insight.

Well quite simply trainers are creatures of habit and some of them are good at getting a horse ready for it's first race under new conditions. And some are not.

I have just read a very interesting piece of trainer trends research by our friend and prolific stats man Dave Renham.

This time it was in the Racing Investors Club.

Dave has researched how trainers perform with their charges having their first run in various types of races.

I'll give an examples here of first runs in hurdles.

Nicky Henderson has a great strike rate with his horses having their first run in a hurdle.

The strike rate is 33.1% and betting them all would have returned a level stakes profit of £64.86 for £1 stakes.

You can increase the strike rate and profit by only betting when the horse is in the first four in the betting, when it runs at Ascot, Hereford, Huntingdon, Ludlow, Sandown or Taunton. And by excluding horses that havent previously won a race.

The above makes up a pretty nifty micro system in itself. But when you add the other trainers that Dave has researched and add in Flat racing as well you have a good source of profitable bets.

The Racing Investors Club February report contains the full stats and is still available to new members.

The club is well worth checking out and is packed full of systems and research every month. Click Here for full info.

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Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Combe Hill 4.40 Taunton 2pt win @ 9`4 various firms

Strange that he is not odds on for this race. Has very solid recent pointing form and was running very well until unseating late on in a race of high quality last year when seen under rules that is head and shoulders above the competition here.

Vivarini 3.30 Ludlow 1pt win @ 9`2 various firms

Has form at various distances from 2 miles – 3 miles, so trip will not be a problem. Ridden by what I think is a very good 8lb claimer and is one of very few in the race that is in any kind of recent form.