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Bet on Goals

I recently heard about this housewife gambler who is making good steady long term gains from football betting. Specifically betting on the over 2.5 goals market.

So I made contact with Louise and she agreed to write an article for us on why she bets in the over 2.5 goals market and why you should to.

Why You Should Consider Betting On Goals

Betting on the number of goals in a game allows you to win money without having to predict who will actually win the match. Typically that means betting over or under 2.5 goals at the outset of most games.

From a strategy point of view it is a style of betting that has both pros and cons, and a bet that will split the crowd amongst professional punters.

Some pros moan that it is hard enough predicting where the goals are likely to come from without worrying about how many goals you’ll see.

For people like me, looking at the number of goals produced per match is a much more reliable – and profitable – strategy than predicting who will score them.

I am a woman, clearly. I am a working mother of two and a maths graduate.

I can’t profess to be a football expert but what I do have though, is something that many so-called experts don’t have – a genuinely mathematical mind, and a degree to prove it.

My profitable betting, which I now share with my subscribers, takes advantage of the maths-based match analysis methods I have developed for use in the football goals betting markets – specifically Over 2.5 match goals.

What I like about this market is that, not only are goals ‘good’ from a predictive point of view but also that the bookmaker’s overround is less crippling than it is in other markets such as say 1X2, HT-FT or an antepost market like say the winner of The Grand National or The Champions League.

The overround is a very important concept in betting. It ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event and is the foundation of a bookie’s business. The concept bookmakers use to do this is simple, they offer all bettors lower odds than those they believe an outcome is truly worth. The overround is expressed as a percentage, with a 100% book representing a market where the bookmaker has no margin whatsoever. The higher the overround percentage is then the bigger profit is for the bookmakers. If the percentage goes below 100% then the bookmaker stands to lose money.

For example, if the over-round is 120% the bookmaker will expect to pay out £100 for every £120 pounds they take in, yielding them an expected profit of 20/120 = 16.7%.

With fixed odds for three possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is between 107% to 112%. Indeed some Internet firms can go as high as 118% for games in obscure football leagues where they fear that individual punters can carry a far greater edge than their hard-pressed compilers.

As a rule of thumb, the greater the number of possible result permutations within a sporting event (or within one of its constituent parts, such as a scoreline), then the greater the bookmaker's overround will be.

A correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130%-160%, depending on the bookmaker. You’d probably find something similar in a competitive big field horse race such as The Grand National.

In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are only two possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attracts overrounds that are commonly less than 110% and sometimes as low as 102% for a Premiership game, say, where the bookies are actively looking to attract a high volume of business.

The name of the game in betting is to minimise the bookmakers’ advantage at all times while playing up the impact of the things that are in your favour whether that’s stats, a value model like mine, or local knowledge about teams and players that can impact on a result.

With that in mind betting opportunities with just two potential outcomes are always worth looking at as both the strike rate and potential returns can be excellent for those with a demonstrable edge.

If you can get your head around betting on goals then the over 2.5 goals market is absolutely one of the best betting opportunities that currently exists.

Louise' Soccer Tips service has a number of selections for this weekends footy action and I have included one for you here…

League – England Premier
Kick Off Time – Saturday 1st November 12:45
Teams & Selection – Newcastle v Liverpool OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.78 Betvictor Pinnacle – 1.76 Marathonbet 188Bet – 1.73 Bet365 Sbobet Boylesports
Stake – 1.5pts
Oddsportal Link
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the true odds price to be around 1.60

To join Soccer Tips or to find out more about Louise and her service go to www.soccer-tip.co.uk

Today's Selection

2.40 Stratford Summer Storm – win bet – 13/8 Boylesports

Jumping Propects 2015

Jumping ProspectsToday I'm looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‘stable eyecatchers’ at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here's the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting http://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects 

Today's Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

Avoiding Duff Tipsters (and finding the gems!)

The amount of times i’ve been asked for help after someone has paid a substantial sum for (enter Mr Hot Shot’s betting service) tips only to find their bankroll down 50% after a few weeks is astounding.

Here’s a couple of things to watch out for when looking for a genuine betting service:

1. Little or no proven track record – genuine tipster’s will have the results to back up their claims. If you can’t find the results, ask for them. If you don’t get them, don’t waste any more of your time – without the results it’s likely the profit claims are false.

2. No trial period or money back guarantee. Genuine tipster’s will be happy to provide a cheaper trial so they can prove their worth. Likewise, they will not be afraid to offer your money back over a certain period because if their strategy produces profit, the vast majority won’t ask for a refund. So at least one of these things is a must.

Another thing to avoid is going all in with a single strategy. Betting always comes with a certain level of risk, so anything we can do to spread this risk is going to be beneficial in the long run. Test the water with a few different strategies, systems or tipster services and find out what works for you. Then you can begin to build a betting portfolio which will ensure those much sought after long term profits.

Sound Complicated? Well, why not simplify things and try this.

Click Here

Over two years of proven results, great reviews from trusted independent sources, and a 30 day money back guarantee are a few of the things that puts this service a cut above, and it’s one of the very few I can thoroughly recommend.

But that’s not the best part. With this you get no less than 3 separate betting strategies included, meaning you have an instant betting portfolio, no effort required!

And that’s STILL not the best part – i’ve managed to secure you an exclusive 30 day trial to this service for a mere £1!

Secure your spot on the trial today – Click Here

The member spaces are capped at 100, so take action now to avoid missing out.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Newcastle:Slunovrat 5/1 generally

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