Tag Archives: Weather course

Lay the Frogs

Don't you just love it when you spend hours researching a system looking into an angle that you think will highlight some winners all for nothing.

Or worse still when you research a system and you think you've found a micro system with a little pocket of profit and you set it up in Horse Race Base to notify you of future runners and a year later it's had just seven qualifying bets and all seven have lost.

That's the results from a system I created last January and I've been waiting for some live results to prove it works before I write about it.

It looks like that day will never come 🙁

Whats worse still is that Derek Miller has just released a laying system that uses a similar angle to make big profits from laying.

It's not the same angle I was looking at, I was looking at French bred horses on one particular all weather course.

Derek's system is selecting French breds in National Hunt races, but it does serve to remind me that there are profits in following horses that are bred for different environments and that I knew that but I didn't find the profit.

And Derek has.

The good news, for you, is that the system is free.

You can get it here http://dailypunt.com/freelayingsystem

Today's selection

17:10 Wolverhampton Apparatchika – win bet – Evens Boylesports

Who’s The Daddy – Sire Systems

Following on from my post the other day about the American Connection system I've been thinking a bit more about how American sires perform on our All Weather courses.

(By the way it's Southwell (AW) again today and there are qualifiers for American Connection)

So I've been looking at various sires for potential angles and I have a little snippet of info to share with you today.

This one involves the sire Bernstein(USA).

This one has only a few qualifiers so will only find a bet occasionally, but I think with some work we could build up a whole collection of these micro systems and build them into something worthwhile.

The basic system is to back all horses sired by Bernstein(USA) when they run on the All Weather.

This gives the following returns…

Runs = 114
Wins = 24
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit = 53.57
Return on Investment = 46.99%

Looking through the results I can see that most of the runs and most of the wins come at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

Analysing for just those courses gives…

Runs = 80
Wins = 18
Strike Rate = 30%
Profit = 79.92
Return on Investment = 133.20%

As well as improving the profits it also rescues a losing year that was showing up in the base system.

All we need now is about a hundred more angles like this and we'll have a decent portfolio, any ideas? Post them in the comments…

Today's Selection

2.5 points profit from Colin Leafe yesterday.

Today's Selection courtesy of Colin Leafe is

3.00 Southwell Sir Geoffrey 2 point win 7/4 Bet 365, Paddy Power

All Weather Trends

First off I want to mention the lay tips we were able to publish yesterday.

The ELM Elite selection performed very well from the 10 selections there was one non runner and one winner at 10/11 all the rest lost and in the main they were all at working prices with the biggest starting at 6/1.

You can get more details about ELM Elite here.

Today, with All Weather meetings at Kempton and Southwell, I want to point you towards an interesting article on the Betting School site which looks at some key factors that will help you identify winners at the All Weather courses.

Facts like which jockeys and trainers to follow, how the surfaces compare, riding styles and tactics that will help you make a profit in play.

For example…

At Kempton

Jockey to follow – Neil Callan Last 5 seasons – 88 wins from 529 rides – 16.64% SR – +£55.59 LSP

Callan has accrued a solid strike rate and level stakes profit from all his rides at Kempton. Drilling down into the stats reveal that the area to concentrate on is when he is riding 4- year-olds and above. 2012 to date has been below previous levels but would still have been in profit to Betfair SP.

Click Here to read the full article

Today's Selection

Exeter 4.10 Ballinahow Star – each way bet

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