Tag Archives: Weather tracks

Horse Racing Laying System

We often get emails into Daily Punt asking about methods and techniques for finding horses to lay.

So today a basic method that I've borrowed from the Easy Lay Method website.

There are many reasons why horses lose their races and the most obvious is that usually there is always a horse that is capable of winning on his day.

So we need to analyse a race from the viewpoint, not of whether the horse can win, but whether others can beat it!

As a general rule only 30% of favourites win their races. It’s a fact that the most certain of certainties can lose and they very often do.

Couple this with the fact that in pure numerical terms in a ten runner race for example, there is only a 1 in ten chance of winning.

Now let us look at the numerous reasons why market leaders might not win the race.

1. The going is not ideal – some horses race best on ground that suits their running style.

For example a horse that lifts its hooves up high will usually do best on soft going and possibly the all weather tracks.

Horses that appear to glide over the ground will prefer good or firm going as their hooves are not going to sink into the surface.

Use the past race comments to identify horses that are not proven on today’s going.

2. The course is not ideal – most horses have a preference for a certain type of course.

The type of course they prefer is often highlighted by their results.

Some are nippy types and prefer a tight course such as Chester.

Others may be out and out gallopers and will prefer a course such as Aintree, while some prefer to run on all weather surfaces such as fibresand or polytrack.

Again look for fancied horses not proven at the course or similar types of courses.

3. The trip is not ideal – horses are like human athletes as some are muscle bound sprinters.

Some lithe and lean long distance runners and most are probably somewhere in between.

Although it is true for most horses that they become better at longer distances as they age.

This may explain why there are a much larger percentage of older horses in jumps races of 3 miles and further.

As well as looking at past form think about which of the contenders fit the profile for the type of horse that does well in today’s type of race.

There are a whole plethora of further reasons which might affect a horse’s performance on the day eg Doesn’t travel well, prefer different seasons, prefer small or large fields of runners, mares very often do well when in foal and you begin to see it is a wonder that horses perform as consistently as they do.

Your job is to find these weaknesses.

Let’s take a look at some example lay selections found by the ELM “Elite”.

Pontefract 2.10 Transcental – Lost at 100-30 SP Favourite

Positive: Her previous 3rd encouraged the market to consider this valuable experience in a field of unraced maidens
Negative: Never underestimate the opposition in maiden races as so little is known about the runners.

Pontefract 4.10 Adab – Lost as 2-1 Favourite

Positive: Fair 3rd last time out
Negative: Different type of course – the one galloping and the other tight

Bath 7.15 Danski – Lost at 5-1 favourite

Positive: Previous 4th was a fair run
Negative: Race was on all weather at Kempton not turf as at Bath

Southwell 4.25 Graylyn Ruby – Lost at 9-2 favourite

Positive: Tried this trip for the first time when 3rd at this venue last time
Negative: Same track and trip but stiffer competition

What we can see from these selections is that most are poor value.

They are favourites or short priced for the wrong reasons, namely their position last time out and this is what gives us the edge.

They are often backed into favouritism because of what they achieved last time out rather than on their true merits.

Unusually, market sentiment in these cases has given us an edge.

For more info or to get daily lay selections go to http://www.easylaymethod.com

Today's Selection

Pontefract 8.20 Reset City – each way bet – 11/1 Bet Victor, Sky Bet

For Serious Players

I'm just reading this months Betting Insiders Members Report, and it's a cracking read.

So I thought I'd share with you as much as I dare for those of you that aren't subscribed to this.

I will give you some angles for winning at one of the All Weather tracks below, but first I want to tell you about a couple of other articles within the report that you might want to investigate.

There is an excellent article by Leon Pidgeon where he looks into the lack of betting systems for football and so builds and Excel spreadsheet that will analyse the data from the Football Data site and help you to create systems.

The explanation of how to build the spreadsheet is a little heavy, but not to worry because Leon shares the finished product with club members.

The report is always packed with winning racing systems and angles, but the second thing that caught my eye was also a football strategy.

This time it's an interesting piece about betting in the win market and hedging your bet in the correct score market. Well worth a read if you bet in play on the footy.

The last thing I want to tell you about is the analysis of All Weather tracks and trends that are proving profitable recently.

I'll share some of the pointers for Kempton Park. Pay special attention to…

– Ralf Beckett: Two year old runners in maidens, especially if ridden by Jim Crowley.

– John Gosden: Two year old runners in maidens priced 9/1 or shorter.

– Saeed Bin Suroor: Any two year old sent to Kempton, but particularly if ridden by Durkin or De Sousa.

– Nicole Nordblad: When she rides for Hans Adielsson

This is just a selection of the pointers for Kempton. Only one is relavent for today's meeting and that is the last.

Nicole Nordblad rides Compton Crofter for Hans Adielsson in the 8:00. This one might be worth an each way bet.

For more about Betting Insiders – Click Here

If you joined for the system selections yesterday you would have been rewarded with 1 winner from 1 selection and I'm going with a selection from the Fit and Fancied Jumpers system today

Today's Selection

Mussleburgh 1.10 Be My Deputy – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365, Will Hill, Paddy Power

All Green Bet: Locked in Profits

Betfair All GreenJust the other day I was watching the Betfair market for a race at one of the All Weather tracks.

The race was in play and I had a lay bet on one of the market leaders.

My selection traded down to about 1.3 and I thought my bet was lost.

Then it drifted back out to 4.3 and I thought my bet was won.

But it then went on to win and I lost my bet.

All the time there was another horse doing the same but opposite.

This other horse went as low as 1.29 before losing.

All of this reminded me of a friend who trades in play with a little method that tries to lay two at less than evens in play. Which if successful locks in a profit.

Now I don't want to make this sound easy, because the friend in question does a lot of work to decide which races have the potential to lock in profits this way.

But let's just do the sums on the race I mentioned above.

If we had managed to lay them both at 1.4 say. For £100 our liability on each would be £40.

So on the winning horse we would have to pay out £40 and on the losing horse we would win our bet of £100.

So a gross profit of £60 (£100 – £40) and a nett of about £57 after commission.

Now you have to be quite bold to wait for two horses to hit 1.4. But as long as you have two below 2.0 then you are on to a profit.

Alternatively you could try for 3 to hit less than 3.0.

I had a search around to find you an example that will demonstrate this clearly and found just the thing on one of my favourite blogs.

http://false-favourites.co.uk/blog/latest-betting-tuturials/laying-the-field-with-this-deadly-effective-strategy-for-low-risk-profits/

Todays Selection

With two meetings abandoned we have no selection today

 

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